16-dayer - W Europe still only sluggishly shaking off its cold pool, but it is drifting away to the NE. High temps over N Africa advancing slowly on a broad front, no sign of any plumes. Dry for week 1, week 2 has wet areas over Scotland, western Britain and S France, still only limited amounts for England.
GFS - current HP moves off to Greenlan 1045mb Tue 27th ushering in E-lies or NE-lies from LP over Scandinavia before small LP forms in this Arctic flow near Iceland Sat 1st and runs SE to Belgium Wed 5th and filling. Another LP with similar origins and Track from Fri 7th ending up in Denmark 995mb Mon 10th. A separate LP forms over Newfoundland Tue 27th and trundles across to Spain over the following 10m days or so.
GEFS - sharp dip in temp Tue 27th as previous forecast but today's run shows a slower recovery and still most runs a little below normal to Mon10th with the control on the pessimistic side. Bits and pieces of rain in different runs from 27th, no consistent pattern, if anything more towards the end of the period, and not really reflecting the passage of the LPs above except for a spike in E Anglia Tue 4th.
ECM of much the same pattern as GFS but keeps the first LP from Iceland to the west of the Uk and suggests (12z)that it could form an extended trough down to the LP over Spain EDIT now the 0z has loaded; the LP sticks over the Irish Sea Tue 4th and shows no link further S-wards
Edited by user
24 April 2021 07:00:27
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl