Remove ads from site

ARTzeman
14 January 2021 10:41:43

Met Office Hadley        2.1c       Anomaly      -1.4c provisional to 13th


Metcheck                     2.06c     Anomaly      -2.10c


Netweather                  2.59c     Anomaly      -1.62c


Peasedown St John     2.95c     Anomaly      -1.95c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
15 January 2021 10:57:58

Met Office Hadley. 2•3c. Anomaly -1•2°c Provisional to 14th.
Metcheck. 1.91c Anomaly. -2.16c
Netweather 2.71c. Anomaly -1.5c
Peasedown St John. 3.1c. Anomaly. -1.8c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
15 January 2021 11:21:50

Where on Earth will the CET go during the final third of the month?


The outlook is almost binary; south-shifted Atlantic storms look to scoop up some exceptionally mild air ahead of them which then clashes with cold polar air along a boundary that looks likely to waver near or across the UK.


The CET zone could see numerous bouts of snowfall with temperatures becoming very cold as feedbacks kick in.


OR it could be bathed in air capable of lifting temperatures toward the mid-teens!



...or perhaps it will be a wild mix of the two. Some runs are managing that, with temperatures oscillating rapidly between freezing and balmy.


 


Potential for a strong month mean temperature gradient between the CET zone and the far south of England; even as of 14th there's close to a whole degree Celsius of difference between the CET and my local mean.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
16 January 2021 10:54:40

Met Office Hadley        2.3c      Anomaly     -1.2c Provisional to 15th


Metcheck                     1.93c    Anomaly     -2.23c


Netweather                  2.59c    Anomaly     -1.62c


Peasedown St John     2.65c    Anomaly      -2.23c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
AlvinMeister
16 January 2021 12:58:03
Would be galling for this month to be substantially below average, wet but snowless!
ARTzeman
17 January 2021 11:00:35

Met Office Hadley         2.4c      Anomaly     -1.1c provisional to 1th


Metcheck                      2.17c    Anomaly      -2.02c


Netweather                   2.76c    Anomaly      -1.45c


Peasedown St John     3.2c       Anomaly       -1.7c


 


The local area of 8 stations  2.88c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
18 January 2021 10:55:06

Met Office Hadley       2.6c       Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 17th


Metcheck                    2.4c       Anomaly      -1.92c


Netweather                 2.9c       Anomaly      -1.31c


Peasedown St John    3.3c      Anomaly       -1.6c  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
19 January 2021 10:52:30

Met Office Hadley      2.8c     Anomaly    -0.7c Provisional to 18th


Metcheck                   2.52c   Anomaly    -1.63c


Netweather                3.04c   Anomaly    -1.17c


Peasedown St John   3.65c   Anomaly    -1.25c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
19 January 2021 21:13:11

Sorry for the confusion on the data about the early days of this month. I was incorrectly looking at the maximum data.


Here is the latest CET tracker. We are in a brief milder spell before it turns cold again at the end of the week. The final 6 days of the month are looking warm though. That could be enough to bring the CET up to 3.77C. Currently my estimate is running more than 0.4C below Hadley so there could be a large downward correction this month. Could be the coldest month since Feb 2018.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 06:36:24

I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 07:08:42


I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 07:29:53


 


I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.


Originally Posted by: Col 

I’m happy to be proven wrong!  I think the current milder spell is throwing up higher temps than expected.  We’ve stuck around 10c for almost 24 hours now, so that could be the spanner in the works for you.  We’ll soon see!  Good luck!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
20 January 2021 10:40:55

Met Office Hadley       3.0c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 19th


Metcheck                    2.9c       Anomaly     -1.26c


Netweather                 3.4c       Anomaly     -0.81c


Peasedown St John    3.8c      Anomaly      -1.1c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Darren S
20 January 2021 11:29:28


 


I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.


Originally Posted by: Col 


I'm very happy with my 3.8C given GW's most recent post! 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gusty
20 January 2021 11:31:44

I'm more than happy with me 2.8c estimate and fully expect the longevity and intensity of cold in the next 10 days to be extended and upgraded. 


Your reign will soon be coming to an end Darren. I'm on your case again this year ! 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



ARTzeman
21 January 2021 10:41:11

Met Office Hadley      3.3c      Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 20th


Metcheck                   5.06c    Anomaly     -1.09c


Netweather                3.07c    Anomaly     -0.51c


Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly    -0.8c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
22 January 2021 11:08:14

Met Office Hadley      3.4c     Anomaly   -0.2c Provisional to 21st.


Metcheck                   3.07c    Anomaly   -1.08c


Netweather                3.75c    Anomaly   -0.4c


Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly   -0.8c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
23 January 2021 10:57:00

Met Office Hadley        3.4c       Anomaly      -0.2c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                     3.02c     Anomaly      -1.13c


Netweather                  3.72c     Anomaly      -0.49c


Peasedown St John     3.9c      Anomaly      -1.0c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
24 January 2021 10:46:20

Met Office Hadley      3.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                   2.90c   Anomaly     -1.26c


Netweather                3.59c     Anomaly    -0.52c


Peasedown St John    3.74c    Anomaly     -1.16c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Spring Sun Winter Dread
24 January 2021 14:07:27
Coldest January since at least 2013 must surely be all but assured now
Stormchaser
24 January 2021 16:50:45

From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.


GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.


It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.



Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
25 January 2021 09:58:54


From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.


GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.


It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.



Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


Looking at this from the other perspective (as I've gone for a punt in the top half of the table of guesses), the expected milder interlude between a chilly start and the impact of the SSW, never really materialised much, either. I'd be quite pleased now if the CET for the month was standing half a degree higher.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
25 January 2021 10:42:25

Met Office Hadley        3.2c      Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                     2.75c    Anomaly         -1.41c


Netweather                  3.44c    Anomaly         -0.77c


Peasedown St John     3.9c     Anomaly       -1.0c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2021 17:08:15

I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
springsunshine
26 January 2021 08:22:25

Id be happy if the CET dropped 0.5c, looking very unlikely now and anyone with a guess of around a final figure of 3c will be closest me thinks.

Remove ads from site

Ads