Met Office Hadley        2.1c       Anomaly      -1.4c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                     2.06c     Anomaly      -2.10c

Netweather                  2.59c     Anomaly      -1.62c

Peasedown St John     2.95c     Anomaly      -1.95c. 

Met Office Hadley. 2•3c. Anomaly -1•2°c Provisional to 14th.
Metcheck. 1.91c Anomaly. -2.16c
Netweather 2.71c. Anomaly -1.5c
Peasedown St John. 3.1c. Anomaly. -1.8c.

Where on Earth will the CET go during the final third of the month?

The outlook is almost binary; south-shifted Atlantic storms look to scoop up some exceptionally mild air ahead of them which then clashes with cold polar air along a boundary that looks likely to waver near or across the UK.

The CET zone could see numerous bouts of snowfall with temperatures becoming very cold as feedbacks kick in.

OR it could be bathed in air capable of lifting temperatures toward the mid-teens!

...or perhaps it will be a wild mix of the two. Some runs are managing that, with temperatures oscillating rapidly between freezing and balmy.

Potential for a strong month mean temperature gradient between the CET zone and the far south of England; even as of 14th there's close to a whole degree Celsius of difference between the CET and my local mean.

Met Office Hadley        2.3c      Anomaly     -1.2c Provisional to 15th

Metcheck                     1.93c    Anomaly     -2.23c

Netweather                  2.59c    Anomaly     -1.62c

Peasedown St John     2.65c    Anomaly      -2.23c.      

Met Office Hadley         2.4c      Anomaly     -1.1c provisional to 1th

Metcheck                      2.17c    Anomaly      -2.02c

Netweather                   2.76c    Anomaly      -1.45c

Peasedown St John     3.2c       Anomaly       -1.7c

The local area of 8 stations  2.88c.

Met Office Hadley       2.6c       Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                    2.4c       Anomaly      -1.92c

Netweather                 2.9c       Anomaly      -1.31c

Peasedown St John    3.3c      Anomaly       -1.6c  

Met Office Hadley      2.8c     Anomaly    -0.7c Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   2.52c   Anomaly    -1.63c

Netweather                3.04c   Anomaly    -1.17c

Peasedown St John   3.65c   Anomaly    -1.25c.     

Sorry for the confusion on the data about the early days of this month. I was incorrectly looking at the maximum data.

Here is the latest CET tracker. We are in a brief milder spell before it turns cold again at the end of the week. The final 6 days of the month are looking warm though. That could be enough to bring the CET up to 3.77C. Currently my estimate is running more than 0.4C below Hadley so there could be a large downward correction this month. Could be the coldest month since Feb 2018.

Chart 1

Chart 2

I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 

I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.

Met Office Hadley       3.0c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                    2.9c       Anomaly     -1.26c

Netweather                 3.4c       Anomaly     -0.81c

Peasedown St John    3.8c      Anomaly      -1.1c.       

I'm very happy with my 3.8C given GW's most recent post! 

I'm more than happy with me 2.8c estimate and fully expect the longevity and intensity of cold in the next 10 days to be extended and upgraded. 

Your reign will soon be coming to an end Darren. I'm on your case again this year ! 

Met Office Hadley      3.3c      Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                   5.06c    Anomaly     -1.09c

Netweather                3.07c    Anomaly     -0.51c

Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly    -0.8c.    

Met Office Hadley      3.4c     Anomaly   -0.2c Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                   3.07c    Anomaly   -1.08c

Netweather                3.75c    Anomaly   -0.4c

Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly   -0.8c.  

Met Office Hadley        3.4c       Anomaly      -0.2c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     3.02c     Anomaly      -1.13c

Netweather                  3.72c     Anomaly      -0.49c

Peasedown St John     3.9c      Anomaly      -1.0c.  

Met Office Hadley      3.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                   2.90c   Anomaly     -1.26c

Netweather                3.59c     Anomaly    -0.52c

Peasedown St John    3.74c    Anomaly     -1.16c.    

From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.

GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.

It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.

Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!

Looking at this from the other perspective (as I've gone for a punt in the top half of the table of guesses), the expected milder interlude between a chilly start and the impact of the SSW, never really materialised much, either. I'd be quite pleased now if the CET for the month was standing half a degree higher.

Met Office Hadley        3.2c      Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     2.75c    Anomaly         -1.41c

Netweather                  3.44c    Anomaly         -0.77c

Peasedown St John     3.9c     Anomaly       -1.0c.       

I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  

Id be happy if the CET dropped 0.5c, looking very unlikely now and anyone with a guess of around a final figure of 3c will be closest me thinks.