Remove ads from site

ARTzeman
06 January 2021 10:51:52

Met Office Hadley        1.7c       Anomaly     -1.8c Provisional to 5th


Metcheck                     1.79c     Anomaly     -2.36c


Netweather                  2.45c     Anomaly     -1.76c


Peasedaown St John    1.9c      Anomaly     -3.0c.     


 Of 8 locals to PSJ   1.32c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
06 January 2021 21:29:53

Here is the latest CET tracker.


Notwithstanding comments I have seen elsewhere on the forum it is absolutely the case that we are experiencing a very significant cold spell. The first 10 days of January are expected to see a CET of 1.13C which is 3.2C below average. That is very significant.


The final 4 days of December saw a CET of 0.4C which is 4.2C below average. 


The CET for the 14 days from 28 December to 10 January will be around 0.9C which is 3.6C below average.


From Monday the CET starts to turn much milder and by 20 January I expect the CET (on current output) to rise to 3.88C. Still below average but not by that much. If (and it is a big if) the milder weather continues to the end of the month we could even end up slightly above average in the mid 4s.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

ARTzeman
07 January 2021 11:13:46

Met Office Hadley        1.7c      Anomaly      -1.8c provisional to 6th


Metcheck                     1.55c    Anomaly       -2.66c


Netweather                  2.35c    Anomaly       -1.86c


Peasedown St John     1.4c      Anomaly       -3.5c.         






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
07 January 2021 20:30:11

Freezing mist and fog kept quite a few spots below zero today. I recorded a max of -0.7°C which is the lowest here since 2nd March 2018!


It was also a very cold night, could be an impressively low CET reading on the cards.


Gradually easing toward average in the coming days, then probably on the mild side for at least a time next week. Keep seeing runs that reintroduce chilly high pressure ridges, mind.


I must admit, I was a bit caught out by the spread of estimates this month - I was expecting to see more in the 1s and 2s!


My logic this month was, if it's ever going to be a sub-2°C, it's when you have a cold pattern in place coupled with cold signals for the mid-range and the possibility of cold(er) weather afterward associated with SSW response.



Now of course, those mid-range cold signals have been replaced with either mixed or mild depending on the model and run viewed. There was little sign of this at the end of December. Typical stuff.


I'm not without hope, though. The sudden stratospheric warming should continue to influence weather patterns for the remainder of the month and there are signs that tropical convection may not stay aligned with the La Nina base state, forcing higher pressure over Iberia, for more than a week.


All told, I'd not be surprised to see a 'banana' shape to this month's CET come the end of it.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
08 January 2021 10:52:36

Met Office Hadley       1.3c      Anomaly     -2.2c Provisional to 7th


Metcheck                     1.33c   Anomaly     -2.82c


Netweather                  1.96c   Anomaly     -2.25c


Peasedown St John    1.4c      Anomaly     -3.5c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
09 January 2021 10:46:21

Met Office Hadley         1.0c        Anomaly      -2.5c Provisional to 8th


Metcheck                       1.22c     Anomaly      -2.93c


Netweather                    1.81c     Anomaly      -2.4c


Peasedown  St John      1.4c      Anomaly       3.5c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
10 January 2021 10:56:21

Met Office Hadley       1.0c       Anomaliy     -2.5c provisional to 9th


Metcheck                    1.11c     Anomaly      -3.04c


Netweather                 1.65c     Anomaly      -2.56c


Peasedown St John    1.3c      Anomaly       -3.6c.      


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
10 January 2021 16:41:01

Latest CET tracker shows the next four days should be somewhat less cold but by Friday things turn cooler again. Beyond that there is a lot of uncertainty but there are increasing signs of colder weather returning. 


At present the CET is predicted to be 3.22C by 24 January. However, I fully expect it could be a lot lower than that. 


The first 10 days of January will see a CET of just 0.9C which is 3.4C below average.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2

redmoons
10 January 2021 16:45:23


In fact the first 10 days of 2021 is the coldest first 10 days of the year since 1893.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Wow that is amazing 


Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Whether Idle
10 January 2021 17:12:13


 


Wow that is amazing 


Originally Posted by: redmoons 


What is more amazing is that Ive managed an air frost and I saw few small flakes of snow a couple of days ago!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Stormchaser
10 January 2021 18:28:09

Model madness continues but there's an underlying increase in support for very cold air to make its way in from the northeast within the 3rd week of the month, likely as part of a cyclonic setup (i.e. unstable i.e. high snow potential).


The GFS 12z was one of the colder outcomes, giving me a CET estimate to 26th in the mid-1s °C.


Yet there have been a fair few much milder outcomes appearing too, which while a dwindling cluster in the ensembles, can't be ignored. Those lift my CET estimate right up into the 3s or even 4s °C!


 


Funny really - coldest opening 10 days in the CET series in 128 years, while down here it's been nothing of much note (overall) and about half the days reached close to 5°C which is what I'd call 'very chilly' rather than cold.


No snow here either - but it did deliver a rare subzero maximum and one of the only ones I can recall with no snow cover. So it's had its moments! 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Spring Sun Winter Dread
10 January 2021 19:39:32
GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010. I remember it as being a solidly sub zero CET period from my own recollections of the weather at the time/following the late Philip Eden's daily CET updates which he used to do back then.
Likewise 1997 and 2009 had bitter starts to January with several ice days at least IMBY. There must have been some mild days mixed in that I am forgetting!
Ally Pally Snowman
10 January 2021 19:57:39

Coldest since 1893. That's unbelievable,  and barely a flake of snow for over half the country. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bolty
10 January 2021 20:46:13

Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
lanky
10 January 2021 21:17:03


Yes, I am also very surprised at those statistics. My memories of early January 2010 was that they were brutally cold with bitterly cold nights and sub-zero days, with that snowmaggedon event on 4-5 January. This year has seen overnight frosts, but most of the days have just about creeped above freezing. I recognise, I'm talking from a local perspective, but surely it was similar for most places.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


This was commented on in the "worst cold spell" thread below


It looks very much that the table compared mean temperatures in 2020 with the maximum temperatures for other years


1963 for instance should say -0.57


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Stormchaser
10 January 2021 22:00:45

I've since confirmed that GW's stats were awry - probably is a comparison with historical mean max CET as you say.


Means for the opening 10 days provisionally place 2021 near the bottom of a long list of years since 1772 that were 1°C or below:


1814: -2.97°C
1795: -2.59°C
1820: -2.48°C
1789: -2.19°C
1864: -2.09°C
1861: -2.00°C
1841: -1.95°C
1893: -1.93°C
2010: -1.90°C
1894: -1.79°C
1811: -1.78°C
1777: -1.45°C
1879: -1.19°C
1774: -1.05°C
1891: -1.05°C
1941: -0.77°C
1784: -0.68°C
1997: -0.65°C
1963: -0.57°C
1780: -0.56°C
1887: -0.43°C
1979: -0.40°C
2009: -0.37°C
1842: -0.31°C
1802: -0.30°C
1794: -0.14°C
1850: -0.12°C
1868: -0.11°C
1799: -0.09°C


1895: 0.01°C
1985: 0.07°C
1786: 0.09°C
1970: 0.22°C
1871: 0.27°C
1778: 0.27°C
1854: 0.29°C
1931: 0.34°C
1867: 0.42°C
1815: 0.55°C
1849: 0.58°C
1918: 0.66°C
1773: 0.66°C
1908: 0.67°C
1835: 0.71°C
1921: 0.75°C
1967: 0.81°C
1833: 0.87°C
2021: 0.90°C
1940: 1.00°C


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Darren S
10 January 2021 22:24:47

GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


He edited the "since 1893" bit out of his post, so it looks like that wasn't true as others have suggested.


Certainly here, not only have we not had a single flake of snow this month, and only one visible hoar frost, but the lowest temperature has only been -2.3C (last night) and the lowest maximum wasn't an ice day (+0.5C, on the 7th January). Still has been a notable cold spell, but only memorable for the facts and figures, and not for what's outside the window. 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Bolty
10 January 2021 22:25:00
That makes more sense. Whilst this January has been cold-feeling so far, it seemed a bit too stange for it to be colder than months like 2010 and 1979 etc.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Darren S
10 January 2021 22:29:57

According to this link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat


CET First 10 days of January 2010: -1.90C


CET First 10 days of January 1979: -0.45C


CET First 10 days of January 1963: -0.57C


Damn, Stormchaser beat me to it!


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Spring Sun Winter Dread
10 January 2021 23:31:27
Even so there's been only 4 colder starts to Jan since 1979.
That's quite something
ARTzeman
11 January 2021 11:22:36

Met Ofice Hadley      1.2c      Anomaly     -2.4c  Provisional to 10th


Metcheck                  1.37c    Anomaly     -2.79c


Netweather               1.71c    Anomaly     -2.5c


Peasedown St John   1.3c     Anomaly     -3.6c


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
12 January 2021 10:45:27

Met Office Hadley      1.6c     Anomaly     -2.0c   Provisional to 1th


Metcheck                   1.85c   Anomaly     -2.30c


Netweather                2.16c   Anomaly    -2.05c


Peasedown St John   1.8c     Anomaly    -3.1c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
12 January 2021 17:30:44

Thanks for that detail James. Amazing, in fact, to see 1940's first 10 so far down the table.


Reminds us again how the whole pattern can shift- edit: 1987 too.


I guess we'll be above 2 in a day or so, but if the models keep showing the same scene (although there are hiccups possibly developing) we could drop to close to zero by month's end. That would be an interesting start to the 2021 profile.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2021 21:01:21

This makes more sense . Very rare for GW to get it wrong though.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
13 January 2021 10:52:55

Met Office Hadley        1.9c       Anomaly      -1.7c Provisional to 12th


Metcheck                      1.87c    Anomaly      -2.28c


Netweather                   2.42c    Anomaly      -1.79c


Peasedown St John     2.3c      Anomaly       -2.6c.                  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Remove ads from site

Ads