Freezing mist and fog kept quite a few spots below zero today. I recorded a max of -0.7°C which is the lowest here since 2nd March 2018!
It was also a very cold night, could be an impressively low CET reading on the cards.
Gradually easing toward average in the coming days, then probably on the mild side for at least a time next week. Keep seeing runs that reintroduce chilly high pressure ridges, mind.
I must admit, I was a bit caught out by the spread of estimates this month - I was expecting to see more in the 1s and 2s!
My logic this month was, if it's ever going to be a sub-2°C, it's when you have a cold pattern in place coupled with cold signals for the mid-range and the possibility of cold(er) weather afterward associated with SSW response.
Now of course, those mid-range cold signals have been replaced with either mixed or mild depending on the model and run viewed. There was little sign of this at the end of December. Typical stuff.
I'm not without hope, though. The sudden stratospheric warming should continue to influence weather patterns for the remainder of the month and there are signs that tropical convection may not stay aligned with the La Nina base state, forcing higher pressure over Iberia, for more than a week.
All told, I'd not be surprised to see a 'banana' shape to this month's CET come the end of it.