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Stormchaser
10 January 2021 22:00:45

I've since confirmed that GW's stats were awry - probably is a comparison with historical mean max CET as you say.


Means for the opening 10 days provisionally place 2021 near the bottom of a long list of years since 1772 that were 1°C or below:


1814: -2.97°C
1795: -2.59°C
1820: -2.48°C
1789: -2.19°C
1864: -2.09°C
1861: -2.00°C
1841: -1.95°C
1893: -1.93°C
2010: -1.90°C
1894: -1.79°C
1811: -1.78°C
1777: -1.45°C
1879: -1.19°C
1774: -1.05°C
1891: -1.05°C
1941: -0.77°C
1784: -0.68°C
1997: -0.65°C
1963: -0.57°C
1780: -0.56°C
1887: -0.43°C
1979: -0.40°C
2009: -0.37°C
1842: -0.31°C
1802: -0.30°C
1794: -0.14°C
1850: -0.12°C
1868: -0.11°C
1799: -0.09°C


1895: 0.01°C
1985: 0.07°C
1786: 0.09°C
1970: 0.22°C
1871: 0.27°C
1778: 0.27°C
1854: 0.29°C
1931: 0.34°C
1867: 0.42°C
1815: 0.55°C
1849: 0.58°C
1918: 0.66°C
1773: 0.66°C
1908: 0.67°C
1835: 0.71°C
1921: 0.75°C
1967: 0.81°C
1833: 0.87°C
2021: 0.90°C
1940: 1.00°C


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Darren S
10 January 2021 22:24:47

GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010.

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


He edited the "since 1893" bit out of his post, so it looks like that wasn't true as others have suggested.


Certainly here, not only have we not had a single flake of snow this month, and only one visible hoar frost, but the lowest temperature has only been -2.3C (last night) and the lowest maximum wasn't an ice day (+0.5C, on the 7th January). Still has been a notable cold spell, but only memorable for the facts and figures, and not for what's outside the window. 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Bolty
10 January 2021 22:25:00
That makes more sense. Whilst this January has been cold-feeling so far, it seemed a bit too stange for it to be colder than months like 2010 and 1979 etc.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Darren S
10 January 2021 22:29:57

According to this link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat


CET First 10 days of January 2010: -1.90C


CET First 10 days of January 1979: -0.45C


CET First 10 days of January 1963: -0.57C


Damn, Stormchaser beat me to it!


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Spring Sun Winter Dread
10 January 2021 23:31:27
Even so there's been only 4 colder starts to Jan since 1979.
That's quite something
ARTzeman
11 January 2021 11:22:36

Met Ofice Hadley      1.2c      Anomaly     -2.4c  Provisional to 10th


Metcheck                  1.37c    Anomaly     -2.79c


Netweather               1.71c    Anomaly     -2.5c


Peasedown St John   1.3c     Anomaly     -3.6c


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
12 January 2021 10:45:27

Met Office Hadley      1.6c     Anomaly     -2.0c   Provisional to 1th


Metcheck                   1.85c   Anomaly     -2.30c


Netweather                2.16c   Anomaly    -2.05c


Peasedown St John   1.8c     Anomaly    -3.1c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
12 January 2021 17:30:44

Thanks for that detail James. Amazing, in fact, to see 1940's first 10 so far down the table.


Reminds us again how the whole pattern can shift- edit: 1987 too.


I guess we'll be above 2 in a day or so, but if the models keep showing the same scene (although there are hiccups possibly developing) we could drop to close to zero by month's end. That would be an interesting start to the 2021 profile.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 January 2021 21:01:21

This makes more sense . Very rare for GW to get it wrong though.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
13 January 2021 10:52:55

Met Office Hadley        1.9c       Anomaly      -1.7c Provisional to 12th


Metcheck                      1.87c    Anomaly      -2.28c


Netweather                   2.42c    Anomaly      -1.79c


Peasedown St John     2.3c      Anomaly       -2.6c.                  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
14 January 2021 10:41:43

Met Office Hadley        2.1c       Anomaly      -1.4c provisional to 13th


Metcheck                     2.06c     Anomaly      -2.10c


Netweather                  2.59c     Anomaly      -1.62c


Peasedown St John     2.95c     Anomaly      -1.95c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
15 January 2021 10:57:58

Met Office Hadley. 2•3c. Anomaly -1•2°c Provisional to 14th.
Metcheck. 1.91c Anomaly. -2.16c
Netweather 2.71c. Anomaly -1.5c
Peasedown St John. 3.1c. Anomaly. -1.8c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
15 January 2021 11:21:50

Where on Earth will the CET go during the final third of the month?


The outlook is almost binary; south-shifted Atlantic storms look to scoop up some exceptionally mild air ahead of them which then clashes with cold polar air along a boundary that looks likely to waver near or across the UK.


The CET zone could see numerous bouts of snowfall with temperatures becoming very cold as feedbacks kick in.


OR it could be bathed in air capable of lifting temperatures toward the mid-teens!



...or perhaps it will be a wild mix of the two. Some runs are managing that, with temperatures oscillating rapidly between freezing and balmy.


 


Potential for a strong month mean temperature gradient between the CET zone and the far south of England; even as of 14th there's close to a whole degree Celsius of difference between the CET and my local mean.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
16 January 2021 10:54:40

Met Office Hadley        2.3c      Anomaly     -1.2c Provisional to 15th


Metcheck                     1.93c    Anomaly     -2.23c


Netweather                  2.59c    Anomaly     -1.62c


Peasedown St John     2.65c    Anomaly      -2.23c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
AlvinMeister
16 January 2021 12:58:03
Would be galling for this month to be substantially below average, wet but snowless!
ARTzeman
17 January 2021 11:00:35

Met Office Hadley         2.4c      Anomaly     -1.1c provisional to 1th


Metcheck                      2.17c    Anomaly      -2.02c


Netweather                   2.76c    Anomaly      -1.45c


Peasedown St John     3.2c       Anomaly       -1.7c


 


The local area of 8 stations  2.88c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
18 January 2021 10:55:06

Met Office Hadley       2.6c       Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 17th


Metcheck                    2.4c       Anomaly      -1.92c


Netweather                 2.9c       Anomaly      -1.31c


Peasedown St John    3.3c      Anomaly       -1.6c  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
19 January 2021 10:52:30

Met Office Hadley      2.8c     Anomaly    -0.7c Provisional to 18th


Metcheck                   2.52c   Anomaly    -1.63c


Netweather                3.04c   Anomaly    -1.17c


Peasedown St John   3.65c   Anomaly    -1.25c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
19 January 2021 21:13:11

Sorry for the confusion on the data about the early days of this month. I was incorrectly looking at the maximum data.


Here is the latest CET tracker. We are in a brief milder spell before it turns cold again at the end of the week. The final 6 days of the month are looking warm though. That could be enough to bring the CET up to 3.77C. Currently my estimate is running more than 0.4C below Hadley so there could be a large downward correction this month. Could be the coldest month since Feb 2018.


IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Chart 1


IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page


Chart 2

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 06:36:24

I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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