I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 

I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.

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I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.

I’m happy to be proven wrong!  I think the current milder spell is throwing up higher temps than expected.  We’ve stuck around 10c for almost 24 hours now, so that could be the spanner in the works for you.  We’ll soon see!  Good luck!   

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Met Office Hadley       3.0c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                    2.9c       Anomaly     -1.26c

Netweather                 3.4c       Anomaly     -0.81c

Peasedown St John    3.8c      Anomaly      -1.1c.       

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I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.

I'm very happy with my 3.8C given GW's most recent post! 

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I'm more than happy with me 2.8c estimate and fully expect the longevity and intensity of cold in the next 10 days to be extended and upgraded. 

Your reign will soon be coming to an end Darren. I'm on your case again this year ! 

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Met Office Hadley      3.3c      Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                   5.06c    Anomaly     -1.09c

Netweather                3.07c    Anomaly     -0.51c

Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly    -0.8c.    

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Met Office Hadley      3.4c     Anomaly   -0.2c Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                   3.07c    Anomaly   -1.08c

Netweather                3.75c    Anomaly   -0.4c

Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly   -0.8c.  

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Met Office Hadley        3.4c       Anomaly      -0.2c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                     3.02c     Anomaly      -1.13c

Netweather                  3.72c     Anomaly      -0.49c

Peasedown St John     3.9c      Anomaly      -1.0c.  

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Met Office Hadley      3.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                   2.90c   Anomaly     -1.26c

Netweather                3.59c     Anomaly    -0.52c

Peasedown St John    3.74c    Anomaly     -1.16c.    

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Coldest January since at least 2013 must surely be all but assured now

From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.

GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.

It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.

Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!

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From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.

GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.

It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.

Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!

 

Looking at this from the other perspective (as I've gone for a punt in the top half of the table of guesses), the expected milder interlude between a chilly start and the impact of the SSW, never really materialised much, either. I'd be quite pleased now if the CET for the month was standing half a degree higher.

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Met Office Hadley        3.2c      Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     2.75c    Anomaly         -1.41c

Netweather                  3.44c    Anomaly         -0.77c

Peasedown St John     3.9c     Anomaly       -1.0c.       

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I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  

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Id be happy if the CET dropped 0.5c, looking very unlikely now and anyone with a guess of around a final figure of 3c will be closest me thinks.

Met Office Hadley      3.0c     Anomaly     -0.7c Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   2.68c   Anomaly     -1.48c

Netweather                3.33c   Anomaly     -0.88c

Peasedown St John  3.7c     Anomaly      -1.2c.     

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Met Office Hadley      3.07c       Anomaly       -0.7c.   Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                   2.75c       Anomaly       -1.40c

Netweather                3.32c       Anomaly       -0.89c

Peasedown St John   3.8c        Anomaly      -1.1c.  

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I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  

 

The next 3 updates should show a nudge upwards, then slight downwards. Before adjustments, I'd expect 3.2c-3.3c

Do we ever get upwards adjustments? Asking for a friend...

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Looks like finishing as the coldest Jan since 2010 then
Anecdotally I remember 2013 seeming colder as the very cold and snowy weather stuck around longer and was more severe , but I think there were mild spells which cancelled out, which this month has lacked by and large

 

 

The next 3 updates should show a nudge upwards, then slight downwards. Before adjustments, I'd expect 3.2c-3.3c

Do we ever get upwards adjustments? Asking for a friend...

That would do nicely for me 3.25c 

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