From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.
GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.
It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.
Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!
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2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On