From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.
GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.
It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.
Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!