Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 07:08:42

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 



I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2021 07:29:53

Originally Posted by: Col 


 


I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.


I’m happy to be proven wrong!  I think the current milder spell is throwing up higher temps than expected.  We’ve stuck around 10c for almost 24 hours now, so that could be the spanner in the works for you.  We’ll soon see!  Good luck!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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ARTzeman
20 January 2021 10:40:55

Met Office Hadley       3.0c       Anomaly     -0.5c Provisional to 19th


Metcheck                    2.9c       Anomaly     -1.26c


Netweather                 3.4c       Anomaly     -0.81c


Peasedown St John    3.8c      Anomaly      -1.1c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Darren S
20 January 2021 11:29:28

Originally Posted by: Col 


 


I would be far happier with your 3.2C rather than my 2.31C. I know the models are still very volatile but I feel that lower figure is slipping away from me now.



I'm very happy with my 3.8C given GW's most recent post! 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gusty
20 January 2021 11:31:44

I'm more than happy with me 2.8c estimate and fully expect the longevity and intensity of cold in the next 10 days to be extended and upgraded. 


Your reign will soon be coming to an end Darren. I'm on your case again this year ! 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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ARTzeman
21 January 2021 10:41:11

Met Office Hadley      3.3c      Anomaly     -0.2c Provisional to 20th


Metcheck                   5.06c    Anomaly     -1.09c


Netweather                3.07c    Anomaly     -0.51c


Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly    -0.8c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
22 January 2021 11:08:14

Met Office Hadley      3.4c     Anomaly   -0.2c Provisional to 21st.


Metcheck                   3.07c    Anomaly   -1.08c


Netweather                3.75c    Anomaly   -0.4c


Peasedown St John   4.1c      Anomaly   -0.8c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
23 January 2021 10:57:00

Met Office Hadley        3.4c       Anomaly      -0.2c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                     3.02c     Anomaly      -1.13c


Netweather                  3.72c     Anomaly      -0.49c


Peasedown St John     3.9c      Anomaly      -1.0c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
24 January 2021 10:46:20

Met Office Hadley      3.3c     Anomaly     -0.3c. Provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                   2.90c   Anomaly     -1.26c


Netweather                3.59c     Anomaly    -0.52c


Peasedown St John    3.74c    Anomaly     -1.16c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Spring Sun Winter Dread
24 January 2021 14:07:27
Coldest January since at least 2013 must surely be all but assured now
Stormchaser
24 January 2021 16:50:45

From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.


GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.


It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.



Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!


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2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
25 January 2021 09:58:54

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


From a damage limitation perspective, I've been watching the Wed-Thu polar boundary adjustments like a hawk.


GFS 12z has another southward adjustment, lowering both my Wed & Thu estimates by 0.75°C.


It's little in the grand scheme of things but I'll take anything at this time! Ha - the SSW really hasn't delivered as much as I gambled on this month. The unusually vigorous low in the North Sea was seeded by an unusually large low near the Azores that I feel had a pretty big impact on the CET outcome. Once upon a time it looked to stay well southwest of us and the outlook was considerably colder.



Anyway - if the CET finishes 3.0°C or lower, I'll be alright with that. It's not a great start but it could be far worse!



 


Looking at this from the other perspective (as I've gone for a punt in the top half of the table of guesses), the expected milder interlude between a chilly start and the impact of the SSW, never really materialised much, either. I'd be quite pleased now if the CET for the month was standing half a degree higher.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
25 January 2021 10:42:25

Met Office Hadley        3.2c      Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                     2.75c    Anomaly         -1.41c


Netweather                  3.44c    Anomaly         -0.77c


Peasedown St John     3.9c     Anomaly       -1.0c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2021 17:08:15

I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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springsunshine
26 January 2021 08:22:25

Id be happy if the CET dropped 0.5c, looking very unlikely now and anyone with a guess of around a final figure of 3c will be closest me thinks.

ARTzeman
26 January 2021 10:44:33

Met Office Hadley      3.0c     Anomaly     -0.7c Provisional to 25th


Metcheck                   2.68c   Anomaly     -1.48c


Netweather                3.33c   Anomaly     -0.88c


Peasedown St John  3.7c     Anomaly      -1.2c.     






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
27 January 2021 11:41:11

Met Office Hadley      3.07c       Anomaly       -0.7c.   Provisional to 26th


Metcheck                   2.75c       Anomaly       -1.40c


Netweather                3.32c       Anomaly       -0.89c


Peasedown St John   3.8c        Anomaly      -1.1c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
27 January 2021 11:54:44

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I’d be more than happy if it stuck around 3.2c.  Although there will no doubt be an end of month adjustment.  



 


The next 3 updates should show a nudge upwards, then slight downwards. Before adjustments, I'd expect 3.2c-3.3c


Do we ever get upwards adjustments? Asking for a friend...



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
27 January 2021 12:24:54
Looks like finishing as the coldest Jan since 2010 then
Anecdotally I remember 2013 seeming colder as the very cold and snowy weather stuck around longer and was more severe , but I think there were mild spells which cancelled out, which this month has lacked by and large
redmoons
27 January 2021 12:48:06

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


The next 3 updates should show a nudge upwards, then slight downwards. Before adjustments, I'd expect 3.2c-3.3c


Do we ever get upwards adjustments? Asking for a friend...



That would do nicely for me 3.25c 


Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





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