It seems strange that the Met Office and BBC Weather projections are somewhat different for early to mid July especially from a temperature point of view Which is closer to the mark?

Well from what I can see, the current model output seems to be backing up the MetO's thoughts for early July over those of the BBC. The models at the moment are suggesting a reload of HP from the west next week after a brief unsettled blip at the weekend.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled for much of July

_________________________________

Wednesday 26 June – Sunday 30 June

Dry, very warm week. Hot Saturday. Wet Sunday.

High pressure extending into the UK from the north-west will keep things fine and dry for the latter half of the working week. There will be plenty of sunshine with some patchy cloud in places, especially in the afternoons. A fresh, northerly breeze on the East Coast of Britain will keep things feeling a bit cooler there. An ongoing heatwave in Europe will stay largely confined to Europe through Friday, with high pressure over the UK preventing the hot air from spreading its way across the whole of the country. However, southwest and central southern England along with south Wales will see some of this air, lifting temperatures into the upper twenties for the end of the week.

The air will also be quite humid, so afternoons will feel a bit muggy out in the sun. Elsewhere it will be less humid, with temperatures nearer to average or a touch below in Scotland. On Saturday, our high pressure block will move off to the east and winds will shift from easterly to southerly, allowing the hot air from France to move up into the UK. Central and eastern counties of England and Southeast Scotland are expected to see highs well above average, with Southeast England reaching up into the low thirties. This air will also be very humid, so Saturday will feel very muggy and oppressive in the afternoon for most. A few sharp showers are expected in the West and across Scotlan,d that may provide a bit of relief. Overnight and into Sunday, a cold front will then sweep across the UK from the northwest, bringing some heavy or thundery showers overnight to the North, but more notably, bringing in some cooler and less humid air for Sunday. Most places will see temperatures return to average, with highs in the low to middle twenties.

Monday 1 July – Sunday 7 July

Wet for a time, but drying out later in the South.

After the cold front on Sunday, the UK will be dominated by a progressive, westerly weather pattern with a cooler westerly breeze bringing scattered showers to westernmost counties through the first half of the week. Scotland will likely see weak fronts keeping the northern half of the country cloudy and damp, with showers for the southern half. Central and eastern counties of England will likely stay mostly dry but with patchy cloud and sunny spells. The odd shower cannot be ruled out, mainly in the Midlands and central southern England. From Wednesday and through the rest of the week and weekend, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in from the southwest, bringing with it some warmer and more settled weather.

Temperatures will likely climb to slightly above average in the South with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and dry weather. However, high pressure will struggle to reach too far north where more persistent lows will linger near Iceland and Scandinavia, so northern Scotland is expected to stay mostly cloudy and damp with weak fronts overhead for much of the time. This high pressure is not expected to be a long-lived feature for the rest of July, and towards the end of the weekend we will likely see it start to slide off to the west or southwest, allowing low pressure to return perhaps as early as Saturday. This will bring in some wetter and cooler weather, although temperatures will not be too far below average so it will still feel warm in the afternoons.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 21 July

Unsettled weather returning for the rest of July.

As high pressure gradually weakens and retreats into the North Atlantic, low pressure tracks are expected to return to the UK into mid-July and linger into late-July, keeping the summer more unsettled, wet, but still warm at times. As the jet stream - a current of fast moving air high in the atmosphere that drives weather systems - dips south into Europe, low pressure centres will move near or over the UK, keeping things cloudier and wetter than a typical July.

There is a risk that we may see one of these low pressure systems drift off to the southwest similar to the last week of June, allowing it to tap into some hot Saharan air and trigger another heat wave. However, confidence is low on this happening, and on any exact dates at this range. There is the chance - around 30% - that high pressure will become more dominant across Central and North Europe, including the UK, bringing in some warmer tropical air and sunnier, drier and more summer-like weather. However, we expected low pressure to be the main weather player for much of July, similar to how it dominated the weather through most of June, making for quite a different summer to what we saw last year!

Further ahead

We will have a good idea of how hot the weekend will get to close June, and take a further look at the expected wet July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

This BBC update is very bizarre. 

This BBC update is very bizarre. 

Agreed, Kieren. Couldn't be more different from the recent MetO updates in a lot of ways.

On a general point, I'd be interested to know what the accuracy of the BBC monthly outlooks has been like since Meteogroup replaces the Met Office as their forecast provider. Sometimes, I believe, they have gone against the thoughts of the Meto and been proved correct but at the moment, the model output I am looking at seems to be favouring the thoughts of the MetO.

Monday 1 July - Wednesday 10 July

By Monday, fresher and less warm weather will spread to all areas. The north of the UK will probably be rather wet and windy but southern parts are likely to be drier. Winds and rain will probably ease on Tuesday and Wednesday, apart from the far south, where it may become more breezy for at time. Most of the UK is likely to have some warm sunshine on those days, though it is not expected to be as warm as this week. Over the following days, the most likely scenario is for mainly dry, bright and warm weather to continue though there is no special signal for particularly hot temperatures. Early morning mist or short-lived wetter and windier weather are also likely at times.

Thursday 11 July - Thursday 25 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period, though some wind and rain is likely at times. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cooling off again


• Mostly dry for a time


• Wetter by mid-July

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-fun-sun/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 3 JUly - Friday 12 July 

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the likelihood for spells of rain and strong winds across northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Generally, it looks like a broadly fine and settled spell of weather for many towards the middle of the month. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm or warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the northwest, but still feeling warm here at times.

Saturday 13 July - Saturday 27 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, a few dry and warm spells likely

_________________________________

Saturday 29 June – Sunday 7 July

Changeable week, but often dry in the South

A hot start to the weekend for many, with southerly winds bringing in some of the hot air over France to much of England with highs expected to be in the upper twenties to low thirties. Sunny and humid, but with growing clouds in the West as a cold front pushes in Saturday evening and night. This front will bring some heavy showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning to Scotland, Northern Ireland, North England, and North Wales. Staying dry further south and east.

The cold front passes overnight, leaving Sunday feeling noticeably cooler than the hot Saturday (although highs will be around average). A fresh westerly wind with mostly sunny skies and scattered showers in the west and north will persist through Monday. High pressure will then begin to build in through midweek, keeping things more settled, drier, and a touch warmer. However, this too will be short-lived as the high pressure centre weakens in the second half of the week, allowing a low to move in from the northwest. This will be showers and cloudier skies, mainly to northern and north-eastern areas with the south and southwest staying dry. Cooler with a fresh north-westerly wind.

Heading into the weekend, some uncertainties begin to grow, and low pressure is expected to linger over or near Scandinavia with a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. The main issue is now extensive high pressure ridges in the Atlantic will get, with a potential for the UK to see a fairly settled and slightly warmer weekend, but showers will likely still be a factor for the north-eastern counties.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Settled start, but turning wetter and cooler later

High pressure nearby to the west should keep the first part of the week settled, although winds will be out of the northwest bringing in some cooler air and rain to the far north of Scotland, western Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Low pressure systems over Scandinavia are expected to gradually shift west and be centred more over the UK by the middle of the week and into the end of the week. This will shift winds to more westerly but also bring a return of the slow-moving fronts that plagued the UK throughout June.

All this means that after a mostly dry start to the week, temperatures will tend to stay a bit below average as the weather turns gradually wetter for most. The best of any dryness will be in the South and Southeast, but even here occasional rain is likely. However, high pressure ridges will likely linger into Central Europe from the southwest, and these will tend to keep fronts and low pressure systems more in the northern half of the country than the southern half. There is a risk to the forecast (25%) that high pressure ridges will remain for extensive across the UK through the end of the week. This would mean things will generally be warmer, drier, and calmer overall. Temperatures in this scenario would tend to fall above average, with a potential for some very warm days later in the week.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled and cool; occasionally warmer

Low pressure tracks are expected to remain across North Europe as the jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - stays further south than normal for summer. Large low pressure systems will likely slowly drift westwards towards Iceland through the end of July, keep things generally unsettled in the UK with slow-moving fronts and cooler westerly or north-westerly winds persisting.

However, the hotter summertime temperatures in the sub-tropical Atlantic will keep the large high pressure centre near the Azores strong. This will occasional extend northeast into Central Europe, and between low pressure systems will even reach into the UK at times. This will lead to a changeable weather pattern with a high degree of weekly variability in both rainfall and temperatures. The general weather pattern is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a few dry and settled spells that bring in some warmer air. These most often in the south. There are currently no strong signals for any prolonged heat or dryness.

The main alternative scenario to the forecast for late July is that high pressure continues to be more extensive into the UK, resulting in a warmer and drier trend. This is summertime, and the Azores high pressure centre is strong throughout the month, so there is a chance (30%) that late July may turn a bit more summery than June and early July. In this situation there is a risk of another heat wave as well, and these are more common in late July.

Further ahead

We will continue to look at the unsettled weather pattern through July to see when things may finally dry out. This will give us a better picture of any late July heat as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 4 July - Saturday 13 July

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the greatest likelihood for spells of rain likely to be across northern and northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

Sunday 14 July - Sunday 28 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Not updated

Monday 15 July - Monday 29 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Friday will be dry and sunny for southern and eastern parts of the UK. It will be a cloudier day for northern and northwestern parts with a risk of some isolated showery outbreaks. Winds will be light. As we head through early July there is a good signal for high pressure to become dominant. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are most likely. However, by and large, conditions should be generally fine and settled with warm temperatures for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies. Temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 6 July - Monday 15 July

Early cloud in the south on Saturday should soon clear leaving sunny spells. Breezy in the east, with perhaps a few showers, but generally dry across the rest of the UK. By Sunday there's a risk of some thundery showers in the southwest, with settled weather continuing elsewhere. Temperatures near normal for most, but locally rather cool in the north. Through the second week of July there is likely to be a good deal of fine and settled weather, however the north and northwest may be cloudy and breezy with spells of rain at times. Temperatures could be warm at times across many central, southern and eastern areas, although some cool nights are expected under any clearer skies.

Tuesday 16 July - Tuesday 30 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, bringing us a good deal of fine and settled weather, and with any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

CPF June update

July to September

Temperature summary

For July-August-September as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for July-August-September will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 35 and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For July-August-September as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jas-v2.pdf

Sunday 7 July - Tuesday 16 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Wednesday 17 July - Wednesday 31 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48841640

Over a foot of rain in 24 hrs.

just bonkers that, really.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but a few dry and warm spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 July – Sunday 7 July

Often dry and settled but a wet spell in the north

The middle part of this week will be largely dry and settled for a time with mostly gentle winds albeit cool over northern Scotland. Through Thursday and Friday, high pressure will linger over England and Wales, bringing further mainly dry and settled weather here with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will rise, too, reaching the low to mid 20s Celsius. Scotland and Northern Ireland will become cloudier for a time, though, with a cold front moving in from the north, bringing a spell of rain.

Parts of western Scotland will have some rather heavy and persistent rain later on Thursday. However, any rain should clear southwards and ease by Friday afternoon. This weekend should then see a lot of dry weather over much of the country with spells of sunshine and often gentle winds. Staying cool for July in Scotland while temperatures further south are expected to be near to the seasonal average - feeling pleasant in any lengthier spells of sunshine.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Wet in the northwest. Driest in the southeast.

Through next week, we expect rain-bearing weather fronts to approach from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over how far south and east any rain will extend. However, most likely is for a northwest-southeast split to the weather. Northern and western areas of the UK are likely to become wetter and breezier through the week with outbreaks of rain gradually becoming more widespread. However, there should also be a couple of drier and settled days, most likely early to mid-week.

Southern and eastern areas of the UK, including much of central and eastern England, are likely to have lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather with only a little rainfall. It should be warm at times in the south and east, too. However, there is a risk that rain-bearing fronts extend further south and east than expected later in the week, which would bring a cooler, breezier and wetter spell of weather more widely over the UK.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled but occasionally warm

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for July, bringing often unsettled conditions with only short-lived drier and sunnier periods of weather. Fronts moving in from the west are likely to bring some rather heavy spells of rain at times, with a chance of occasional thunder too. Rainfall amounts look like being highest over western and north-western areas of the UK. However, the southeast is likely to have some rainfall too with amounts probably above normal for July.

Breezy at times for many too. However, despite a rather wet outlook, it is not expected to be particularly chilly. Indeed, it is expected to be rather warm at times, perhaps with occasional plumes of very warm weather moving in from the near continent over central and eastern England. There is a chance that the rain-bearing low pressure areas stay a little further east than currently expected, which would lead to drier and brighter conditions through mid to late July, particularly in the west and north.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if any lengthier dry and warm periods of summer weather may develop or whether it is still looking like a generally unsettled July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook