BBC monthly outlook
Unsettled at first but drier and warmer later
Saturday 8 June – Sunday 16 June
Staying cool and unsettled
Low pressure will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom this weekend and, in a change to the forecast, for much of next week. As a result, the weather is expected to be unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain for most areas. It will be a cool and at times windy spell of weather. Saturday will start cloudy with widespread showers and rain and with strong winds in some areas. Rain may start to clear the far south-west later but there will be a risk of showers here for the rest of the day. Sunday should be a brighter day with most areas expected to see some sunshine. However, there will be showers too, particularly in the north and west. The showers will become heavy and thundery in some areas. The day to day details of the forecast through the week are a little uncertain.
It looks as though low pressure will remain close to or over the UK, so further showery weather is expected, with some areas seeing rain becoming persistent and heavy at times. Perhaps unusually, the rain is likely to be heaviest across southern and eastern areas, with Scotland relatively dry. It will also be windy at times, and with winds coming primarily from the east or north-east it will be cool for the time of year. Wednesday looks likely to be the coolest and wettest day of the week. There are some signs that it will become a little less cool later in the week, with the weather starting to become a bit less unsettled. However, the chance of significantly drier and warmer weather has dropped since our last update.
Monday 17 June – Sunday 23 June
Less unsettled and a little warmer.
Low pressure is expected to linger close to the UK, but it should be to the west or southwest rather than over the UK. Although this is only a relatively minor change, it could make a quite a difference to the weather across many areas of the country. Firstly, with low pressure still relatively nearby we do expect further unsettled weather with showers and rain at times. However, unlike the previous week it looks as though north and west of the UK will be wettest whilst the south and east are drier, albeit still with some rain at times. Secondly, winds are more likely to be from the south-west, with temperatures near normal in most areas, and perhaps a little above for central and eastern England.
Only Scotland looks colder than average, and even here is doesn't look especially cold. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty in the forecast, and we could have a more varied week. There a couple of alternatives to our expected forecast. The most likely alternative is for low pressure to remain over the UK, continuing the cool, breezy and unsettled theme, however, there is a slight chance of high pressure building more strongly from the south and south-west, with the whole of the UK becoming drier and probably warmer.
Monday 24 June – Sunday 7 July
Becoming warmer and drier for most.
The end of June and start of July should see high pressure building more widely across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems generally staying to the north-west of the UK. Most parts of England and Wales can expect to see a lot of dry weather, and temperatures will tend to be above normal in all areas, with southern and eastern areas likely to be warmest. The low pressure systems passing to our north-west may bring occasional spells of rain and some windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but both countries can expect a fair amount of dry and calm weather, and it will be warmer than normal too.
As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. One reason for this is that there is a tendency for low pressure systems affecting the UK in mid-June to linger for the rest of the month. So, whilst we expect the weather to become drier and warmer, there is a chance that it may remain unsettled and cool through to the start of July, with some spells of warm, dry weather, albeit perhaps rather short-lived.
We'll take another look at the end of June and start of July to see if the expected warm weather is still on the cards.