BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cool and unsettled this week, then becoming warmer

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 June – Sunday 9 June

Cool and unsettled for the rest of this week.

The weather will remain unsettled for the rest of this week as low pressure systems move across or pass close to the United Kingdom. One such low pressure system will be centred over the country on Wednesday, and this system will bring rain to many northern and western areas with showers developing in other areas. Wednesday evening and night will see another low pressure system developing over mainland Europe and moving into the North Sea. This system will bring rain to eastern England overnight, then to north-eastern parts of the UK on Thursday. Other areas of the country will be mainly dry on Wednesday night but will see showers on Thursday, some of the showers likely to be heavy and perhaps thundery.

Thursday's low pressure system should move away on Friday, but another low will move in from the south. There is a little uncertainty over the exact track of this low, but the south of the UK is expected to see rain, some of this heavy, and freshening winds. There will be a risk of strong winds in southern and eastern England on Friday night, and many areas of the country could see showers or rain at times. The weekend will see the unsettled theme continuing. Whilst there is some uncertainty over the details, low pressure is expected to remain nearby, probably close to the north of the country. As a result, further showers and rain are likely. Temperatures are currently a little below normal for the time of year, and it looks as though it will become cooler still towards the end of the week.

Monday 10 June – Sunday 16 June

Probably becoming drier and warmer.

Low pressure is expected to linger close to the UK at the start of next week. There should be a change over the course of next week, with low pressure expected to sink southwards into France and Spain, and with a ridge of high pressure starting to build in from the west and south-west. This means that after an unsettled start to the week, we expected the weather to become calmer and more settled by the end of the week. Broadly speaking, rainfall will return to near or below normal for most parts of the UK during the course of next week. It looks as though southern and south-eastern areas may hang on to the wetter weather longest, but it should become drier here by the end of the week.

Temperatures should start to recover to near normal in most areas, and it will become warmer than normal in many parts of the country, especially later next week, as high pressure builds. It is worth noting that there is a degree of uncertainty over the forecast for next week. There is a slight to moderate chance that low pressure will remain the dominant force across northwest Europe for much of the week. If this happens then our weather is unlikely to change much, with it likely to remain cool, breezy and unsettled with showers and rain affecting the country.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 30 June

Staying warm, but with rain at times.

The second half of June should see high pressure lingering over northern Europe, with low pressure generally limited to western and south-western parts of the continent. This sort of pressure pattern tends to generate relatively warm winds across the UK, so we expect temperatures to remain above average for the time of year for much of the time. However, the low pressure systems expected to affect western Europe will more than likely bring some rain to the UK at times. Whilst the middle of June looks relatively dry, rainfall should return to nearer normal for the time of year later in the month.

We don't currently see any signs of significantly above average rainfall though. As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. Whilst we expect high pressure to remain nearby, it may decline southwards or south-westwards. This would leave north-west Europe open to a more westerly flow in from the Atlantic. This would mean that our weather becomes cooler and probably wetter and windier than we currently expect. The good news is that there's only a roughly 30 to 35% chance of the cooler and more unsettled weather.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the end of June and try to pin down a few more details of the warm end to the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 10 June - Wednesday 19 June

The unsettled and cool weather looks set to continue into next week. Monday will see sunny spells and further showers, with the risk of hail and thunder. Outbreaks of rain will also be likely for Scotland. The week will probably start cool, showery and changeable, but there are indications for later in the week that overall drier and more settled conditions could slowly become established. These will be most likely across the north of the UK. Southern areas will still be more likely to see outbreaks of rain or showers, and some stronger winds at times. Temperatures will generally be close to or a little below average at first, perhaps recovering to become warm at times, particularly in the north.

Thursday 20 June - Thursday 4 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 11 June - Thursday 20 June

After an unsettled period of weather across the UK, there are signs that drier and more settled conditions could begin to develop from Tuesday. Many areas are likely to be dry on Tuesday, although isolated showers are possible in the north and east. Many places may have sunny spells, but it could turn cloudier in the west. Thereafter, there is significant uncertainty in the detail, but largely settled conditions are likely to continue, particularly in the north and west. Further showers or longer spells of rain are possible in the south at times with brisk winds. Temperatures will generally be close to or a little below average at first, perhaps recovering to become warm, particularly in the north.

Friday 21 June - Friday 5 July

Confidence is low through this period, but it is most likely that generally drier and mostly settled conditions will have become established across the north of the UK. Meanwhile, southern areas are likely to be more prone to showers, or perhaps some longer spells of rain with the possibility of occasional thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be around average or a little above, with northwest Scotland perhaps most favoured for warmer than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Today's warning has been updated from "Rain" to "Thunderstorm", with the area extended somewhat. I'd imagine these showers will be very hit-and-miss, but where they do occur they have the potential to quite vigorous!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-07

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cool and showery start


• Drier and warmer interlude


• More rain later

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/07/john-hammond-month-ahead-patience-virtue/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 12 June - Friday 21 June

Wednesday is likely to be windy and rather chilly for the time of year. Rain in the south may spread further north during the day, with showers following behind from the south. Thursday and Friday could well be rather unsettled too, with the wettest weather in the east of the UK. Temperatures will remain a little below average. Next weekend will probably be on the wet and windy side in the south and east, but with more chance of dry and bright weather in the north and west. Into the following week, further showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times. However, there will be more in the way of dry spells too. Temperatures will perhaps recover to average temperatures for June.

Saturday 22 June - Saturday 6 July

Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too as we move towards the end of June. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first but drier and warmer later

_________________________________

Saturday 8 June – Sunday 16 June

Staying cool and unsettled

Low pressure will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom this weekend and, in a change to the forecast, for much of next week. As a result, the weather is expected to be unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain for most areas. It will be a cool and at times windy spell of weather. Saturday will start cloudy with widespread showers and rain and with strong winds in some areas. Rain may start to clear the far south-west later but there will be a risk of showers here for the rest of the day. Sunday should be a brighter day with most areas expected to see some sunshine. However, there will be showers too, particularly in the north and west. The showers will become heavy and thundery in some areas. The day to day details of the forecast through the week are a little uncertain.

It looks as though low pressure will remain close to or over the UK, so further showery weather is expected, with some areas seeing rain becoming persistent and heavy at times. Perhaps unusually, the rain is likely to be heaviest across southern and eastern areas, with Scotland relatively dry. It will also be windy at times, and with winds coming primarily from the east or north-east it will be cool for the time of year. Wednesday looks likely to be the coolest and wettest day of the week. There are some signs that it will become a little less cool later in the week, with the weather starting to become a bit less unsettled. However, the chance of significantly drier and warmer weather has dropped since our last update.

Monday 17 June – Sunday 23 June

Less unsettled and a little warmer.

Low pressure is expected to linger close to the UK, but it should be to the west or southwest rather than over the UK. Although this is only a relatively minor change, it could make a quite a difference to the weather across many areas of the country. Firstly, with low pressure still relatively nearby we do expect further unsettled weather with showers and rain at times. However, unlike the previous week it looks as though north and west of the UK will be wettest whilst the south and east are drier, albeit still with some rain at times. Secondly, winds are more likely to be from the south-west, with temperatures near normal in most areas, and perhaps a little above for central and eastern England.

Only Scotland looks colder than average, and even here is doesn't look especially cold. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty in the forecast, and we could have a more varied week. There a couple of alternatives to our expected forecast. The most likely alternative is for low pressure to remain over the UK, continuing the cool, breezy and unsettled theme, however, there is a slight chance of high pressure building more strongly from the south and south-west, with the whole of the UK becoming drier and probably warmer.

Monday 24 June – Sunday 7 July

Becoming warmer and drier for most.

The end of June and start of July should see high pressure building more widely across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems generally staying to the north-west of the UK. Most parts of England and Wales can expect to see a lot of dry weather, and temperatures will tend to be above normal in all areas, with southern and eastern areas likely to be warmest. The low pressure systems passing to our north-west may bring occasional spells of rain and some windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland, but both countries can expect a fair amount of dry and calm weather, and it will be warmer than normal too.

As always, there is some uncertainty for this part of the forecast. One reason for this is that there is a tendency for low pressure systems affecting the UK in mid-June to linger for the rest of the month. So, whilst we expect the weather to become drier and warmer, there is a chance that it may remain unsettled and cool through to the start of July, with some spells of warm, dry weather, albeit perhaps rather short-lived.

Further ahead

We'll take another look at the end of June and start of July to see if the expected warm weather is still on the cards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 13 June - Saturday 22 June

Thursday will be unsettled for most with showers or longer spells of rain, and with the showers heavy and possibly thundery in the south and southeast. Some sheltered northwestern areas may remain dry, but there it will be windy. This unsettled theme is likely to continue into the weekend, with the wettest conditions most probably across the east and southeast. Temperatures below average, especially in the wetter areas. Through the following week there will probably be more in the way of drier spells, but still with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers at times. Winds will often be strong for the time of year, but as we approach the following weekend temperatures will perhaps recover closer to average.

Sunday 23 June - Sunday 7 June

Although the weather is very uncertain for this period, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of sporadic wet and windy weather, though there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 14 June - Sunday 23 June

It should be cool and cloudy with light winds across the majority of country on Friday. There will a be further showers, and perhaps a longer spell of rain, but the far west may be mainly dry with some bright spells. Moving into the weekend this unsettled theme is likely to continue with the wettest conditions most probably across the east and southeast. Temperatures below average, especially in the wetter areas. Through the following week there will probably be more in the way of drier spells, but still with outbreaks of rain or heavy showers at times. Winds will often be strong for the time of year, but through the week temperatures will perhaps recover closer to average.

Monday 24 June - Monday 8 June

The expected weather conditions in this period remain very uncertain, but at present the most likely scenario is that we will continue to see occasional spells of wet and windy weather, however there will probably be more in the way of drier spells too by the end of June and into the first week of July. Winds should become relatively light, with a tendency to turn from cooler northerly or easterly winds to warmer southerly or westerly winds which would allow temperatures to rise to normal, or perhaps slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Amber warning for London and SE, mainly for heavy showers/TS following on from main rain band.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-10&id=b51c9d14-e1f2-437d-a038-9373e3d7caf1&details

Saturday 15 June - Monday 24 June

Saturday should see a mixture of sunshine and showers. There is a risk of heavy, thundery showers in the east or southeast at first. Thereafter, showers are likely to be heaviest in the west where they may merge to form longer spells of rain or give a rumble of thunder. Winds may be strong in the west with the risk of coastal gales. Temperatures should be normal for the time of year. The most probable scenario going forward is for a continuation of these changeable conditions, which will be most prevalent across eastern and southeastern parts. Many western and northern areas may well see more settled conditions, though still with occasional showers. Winds probably remaining strong at times, with temperatures no better than average, often below, with some cold nights.

Tuesday 25 June - Tuesday 9 June

The forecast through this period is very uncertain. Presently the preferred solution is for some spells of unsettled weather to effect the UK through the period, although probably interspersed with more in the way of drier, more settled spells than during the previous period. Winds should mostly be light, with temperatures generally recovering to around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 16 June- Tuesday 25 June

Sunday is expected to be another day of sunshine and showers. Some of these could be heavy with a risk of thunder, most likely in the west or northwest of the UK. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, though in the southeast, warm sunshine is likely later in the day as showers ease. By next week, most winds will tend to blow from a warm southerly direction, which will make the UK warmer generally over the following days, and perhaps very warm in parts of the south. Occasional rain or showers will remain likely in western and northwesterly areas, and it will probably be rather windy here at times. However, south and southeasterly areas are more likely to stay dry, bright and warm.

Wednesday 26 June - Wednesday 10 July

Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest though there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monday 17 June - Wednesday 26 June

After a rather unsettled weekend, Monday will see warm sunny spells for many. However, showers are still possible, especially in the west and northwest where they could be heavy, with the risk of thunder. The south and southeast will likely see drier and more settled conditions through next week though. Here we will see the warmest temperatures and it could be even very warm for parts of the southeast. It will stay windy in the northwest though, with a risk of showers continuing here towards the end of June. The more settled conditions in the south are then likely to extend further north and west, with lighter winds and warmer temperatures than of late likely.

Thursday 27 June - Thursday 11 July

Although rather uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 18 June - Thursday 27 June

After an unsettled and cool first half of June, somewhat drier and more settled weather is likely to develop for many during the second half of the month. Although next week may still be rather changeable and showery, it will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes. Southern areas may become very warm for a time, although with the chance of thundery rain spreading up from the south at times, perhaps affecting central parts, which will preclude any longer spells of dry weather. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more widely settled and warm weather.

Friday 28 June - Friday 12 July

Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Weather returns to normal


• No sign of prolonged heat


• Further rain at times

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/14/john-hammond-month-ahead-summer-comeback/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 19 June - Friday 28 June

The changeable and showery theme looks set to continue, with low pressure situated to the northwest of the UK, and high pressure over the near continent. The main focus of the showers is likely to be in the north and west, with some strong winds at times. It will be warmer than of late with some sunshine and drier interludes in between the showers, especially in the south and east, where it may become very warm for a time. However, there will be the risk of some heavy and thundery showers moving up from the south at times, which may extend northwards. As we head into the final week of June, there are signs that high pressure may dominate, bringing a greater chance of more widely settled and warm weather.

Saturday 29 June - Saturday 13 July

Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, along with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is more likely in the northwest but there will be dry spells here too. Into July, there is more chance of showers and longer spells of rain across the country generally, though the south and southeast may still see the warmest and driest weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 20 June - Saturday 29 June

Low pressure likely to be dominant to the west or northwest, with frontal systems periodically affecting the UK. Windy conditions are likely at times, especially in the northwest. The changeable conditions are likely to bring bands of rain at times, these most frequently in the north and west. Brighter and showery periods are likely in-between. The south and southeast should have more in the way of drier and settled weather, but with the risk of thundery plumes being drawn northwards from the continent into southern parts of the UK at times. Temperatures will be mostly near normal, but warm at times in the east. Sometimes rather cool in the northwest. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather.

Sunday 30 June - Sunday 14 July

Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the end of June could well be a continuation of mostly dry and warm weather for the southeast of the UK, with light winds. Windier and wetter weather is likely at times in the northwest but there will be drier spells here too. Into July, conditions will be similar, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, although the south and southeast will probably see the warmest and driest weather, with occasional thundery outbreaks. Temperatures will be near or slightly above the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 21 June - Sunday 30 June

Showers are likely in the north on Friday, some heavy and thundery, whilst it should remain drier further south. A ridge of high pressure should then bring a good deal of fine and at times sunny weather next weekend, before showery rain arrives in the west later on Sunday. Low pressure is likely to bring more unsettled and perhaps cool weather to the northwest of the UK through the following week, as further bands of rain push in from the Atlantic. Towards the south and southeast it will most likely stay drier, and warm at times, but there is the risk of some thundery showers spreading in from the south. There are signs that high pressure may become more dominant by late-June, bringing a chance of settled and warm weather.

Monday 1 July - Monday 15 July

Although uncertain, the most likely weather for the start of July is for a continuation of the mostly dry and warm weather in the southeast of the UK, with generally light winds. However the risk of some thundery outbreaks remains. Windier and wetter weather is likely at times in the northwest but there will be drier spells here too. Temperatures will be near or slightly above the average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast