Wednesday 17 Apr - Friday 26 Apr

Many places will be dry and bright for the start of the period, with bright or sunny spells. The best of the sunshine will be in the west and northwest and it will most likely be warm for the time of year, but cold weather is still likely in the northeast. Thereafter, temperatures should rise to the seasonal average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Saturday 27 Apr - Saturday 12 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 18 Apr - Saturday 27 Apr

Many places will be dry and bright for the start of the period, with bright or sunny spells. The best of the sunshine will be in the west and northwest and it will most likely be warm for the time of year, but cold weather is still likely in the northeast. Thereafter, temperatures should rise to the seasonal average occasionally, and they could turn locally rather warm in the south and east. Confidence then reduces markedly during Easter and the start of the following week. However, the weather looks most likely to be mixed, with rain and some sun at times. Temperatures will trend from slightly above average to nearer normal overall, but it will still be rather warm at times in the southeast.

Sunday 28 Apr - Sunday 13 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Milder but wetter by Easter


• Drier end to the month


• Late frosts still possible

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-cold-winds-begone/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Milder but wetter by Easter


• Drier end to the month


• Late frosts still possible

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/04/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-cold-winds-begone/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warming up but briefly unsettled

_________________________________

Saturday 13 April—Sunday 21 April

More unsettled but also warmer

To start the week, high pressure will be the main player for the weather across the UK. However, things will be a bit more unsettled than they were last week. An upper level low in Central Europe over the weekend will bring a few showers into the Southeast, and occasional one or two further north along the east coast of Britain. Cloud will likely be quite variable, but the best of the sun will be in the western and central counties. On Sunday night and Monday, a frontal system in Ireland will bring some cloudiness, stronger winds, and rain into Southwest England and Northern Ireland, but further east is should stay dry. One or two showers are still possible along the east coast, but mainly in the northeast. This will also shift the winds to more southeasterly, tapping into some warmer Mediterranean air. Rain will continue into Tuesday for the southwest before easing, and then things get a bit more uncertain.

There are good indications that high pressure will build back in to the north of the UK and over Scotland from Wednesday, keeping things settled. However, low pressure south in the Bay of Biscay and France while bring scattered sharp and at times thundery showers. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding just how strong the high will build in to the north, and if it is slightly weaker or slightly further north, the low from the south will be able to bring its showery weather into the southern half of the UK from Thursday. Through the end of the week and into the weekend the temperatures will turn warmer, with afternoon highs reaching into the mid or upper-teens in the south, and into the mid-teens in the north.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

Turning more unsettled, but staying warm

Heading into late April the high pressure across Northern Europe that has been keeping things mostly settled for the UK will begin to slowly slide westwards, with a trough of low pressure developing in its place of Scandinavia and the UK. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing of the transition to more unsettled weather, and the ridge of high pressure will be fairly slow moving so this will likely be a gradual shift over the course of a few days. The trough of low pressure will eventually bring in more unsettled weather and fronts, along with a cooler northeasterly flow, although temperatures will still remain around or just above average for the time of year.

However, as the week goes on, the trough of low pressure will also shift slowly westwards, and as the low shifts into the North Atlantic, the winds will shift to a southwesterly direction. This will bring in some warmer sub-tropical air, bringing temperatures a bit above average again. Frontal systems will still move through at times, but high pressure building in Eastern Europe will keep them from sweeping across the UK with strong winds and colder, polar air. Overall the last full week of April will be a bit above average for temperatures, and more unsettled than mid-April with occasional frontal systems and spells of rain, but also dry interludes and warmer air from the southwest.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

May turning settled and continuing the warm trend

The westward moving trough of low pressure will continue to head into the North Atlantic through the end of April and early May. This will in turn be replaced by a slow-moving ridge of high pressure from the east. As with late-April, this will likely be a very gradual shift in the pattern occurring over the course of several days. However, by early May and at least through mid-May, high pressure looks to be the dominant weather feature for the UK and most of Northern and Central Europe.

This will keep the weather settled, calm, and dry for most, although the occasional weak front may briefly bring a spell of cloudiness or light rain to the far north and west. Warm air will continue to feed into Central Europe and spring should establish itself in force during May. There are signals for some warm or very warm spells into mid-May with temperatures generally above average thanks to the sunnier skies and light winds. Dry weather may persist for a significant amount of time in May, so rainfall will likely be below or even well below average.

Next Update

Will the warm trend continue until the middle of May?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 19 Apr - Sunday 28 Apr

Many places will be dry for Good Friday, with warm sunny spells. The cloudiest areas are likely to be in the northwest, and along some eastern coastlines, where it will be a little cooler. The rest of the Easter weekend is looking to be mainly dry and warm, though there is still some uncertainty in the forecast as to how cloudy it will be, and whether there may be some rain in northwestern parts of the UK. For the rest of April, the weather looks likely to become more mixed with some rain at times, particularly in the west and northwest. Temperatures will mainly be fairly warm, especially in the southeast in any sunshine, however it will be cooler under any cloud and rain.

Monday 29 Apr - Monday 14 May

Confidence is low for the end of April and beginning of May. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, all areas can also expect some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are generally likely to be near or slightly above average during this period, with warm conditions probable in the south and southeast. However, there will be some marked day on day variations, as often happens at this time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 20 Apr - Monday 29 Apr

Easter weekend is likely to start off warm or very warm for most areas with a good deal of dry sunny weather. However, some coasts will be a little cooler with the onshore breeze. As we head towards the end of the weekend, there is increasing uncertainty so please keep up to date with the latest forecast if you are making plans. It does look as if it will turn more changeable and cooler from the northwest from Sunday. However there remains the chance that southeastern areas could remain warm and settled until Monday. For the rest of April, the weather looks changeable and perhaps windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain, but still with some drier, brighter, spells. Temperatures should be mainly around average.

Tuesday 30 Apr - Tuesday 15 May

Confidence is low by the end of April. The weather is most likely to be rather mixed and more unsettled at the turn of the month, with showers or longer spells of rain. However, some drier and brighter conditions are possible, more especially in the southeast. During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that some longer dry spells are likely for most places. There will however be some brief, more changeable interludes for all parts. Temperatures into May will probably be near or slightly above average. However, as is usual this time of year there will be some marked variations in temperature through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 21 Apr - Tuesday 30 Apr

The second half of the Easter weekend will slowly turn more changeable and cooler, with outbreaks of rain and stronger winds spreading in from the northwest. However, some southeastern parts could remain dry, bright and fairly warm especially through Sunday and at first on Monday. Thereafter, for the remainder of April the weather looks set to become generally more changeable across the UK with showers or longer spells of rain, as well as some periods with stronger winds. Despite this, there will be some drier and brighter interludes at times and overall, temperatures should be around average for the end of April. As it often the case at this time of year, there may be some marked variations in temperature across the country.

Wednesday 1 May - Wednesday 16 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that some longer dry spells are likely for most places. There will however be some brief, more changeable interludes for all parts. Temperatures into May will probably be near or slightly above average. However, as is usual this time of year there will be some marked variations in temperature through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm this week, more unsettled next week

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 April—Sunday 21 April

Largely settled and warm into the weekend

Most parts of the United Kingdom will have calm and settled weather for the rest of this week. This is due to an area of high pressure extending south-westwards across the country. There will be a slight chance of showers across central and eastern England on Wednesday, but otherwise the run-up to the Easter Weekend will be dry and bright with some decent sunny periods. Temperatures have already started to pick up, and it is expected to become warmer still. Friday and Saturday are likely to see temperatures reaching the low to mid-twenties across many parts of the country - quite warm for the time of year.

There will be a chance of some rain in the north-west of Scotland on Saturday and during Saturday night, but this rain should be mainly light. Sunday could see this rain moving into northern England but it will remain fairly light. Scotland looks likely to have a cooler, or maybe 'less warm' day on Sunday with temperatures back to nearer normal for the time of year. It will remain warm in most other areas, with southern England likely to see temperatures in the twenties again. With high pressure and light winds expected, we are likely to see some mist and fog forming overnight. This is most likely in the Midlands and Eastern England on Friday night/Saturday morning, but the odd patch of mist or fog could form elsewhere, in more sheltered areas.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

An unsettled week of weather

The area of high pressure responsible for the fine and dry weather will shift eastwards, allowing Atlantic weather systems to reach the UK next week. Unfortunately for anyone with outdoor plans, this change is expected to be on Bank Holiday Monday. There is some uncertainty over the details, but it looks as though the South East has the best chance of staying dry and warm on Monday. Other areas are more likely to see cloud and showers or longer spells of rain. It will become cooler, and it may become windy too.

From Tuesday onwards, we expect all areas to be in the more unsettled regime. Low pressure is likely to be nearby, so there will be a chance of showers and rain across the country. There is a chance of some heavy, thundery showers around the middle of next week. Some windy weather is likely, although gales are not expected. It will be cooler than this week, but temperatures are expected to be near normal for the time of year. Whilst we are reasonably confident that there will be a transition to unsettled weather next week, there is chance that low pressure does not linger close to the UK for the whole of the week. If this happens, and there is a roughly 25% chance of this, then the end of the week will be drier and less windy again. It may even become a little warmer.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

Becoming more settled again in May

There is some uncertainty over the forecast for the end of April and first half of May. The most likely case is that the low pressure system(s) affecting north-western Europe will weaken and move away to the north. As this happens, high pressure will build back across the UK, bringing a return to relatively calm and dry weather. Temperatures are also expected to lift above normal again for most areas, with the south and east likely to be warmest - there will be the chance of some very warm weather moving in from France, perhaps with some thunderstorms. This high pressure dominated pattern is likely to persist through much of the first third of May.

After this, there are indications that the ridge of high pressure will drift further west at times, allowing for some spells of cooler, wetter and winder weather to develop. It is worth noting that we are not expecting any widespread and sustained wet and windy weather. In fact, we think rainfall will return to near normal, with temperatures near normal in most areas too. The uncertainty in the forecast means we are also seeing a couple of alternatives to our most likely forecast. The first is that high pressure remains over the UK, so we see a continuation of the dry and settled weather. This has a roughly 30% chance of occurring. There is a lesser chance of low pressure becoming more of a feature, with wetter windier weather developing in May. There is only a ~10% chance of this though.

Next Update

We'll be able to give a bit more detail for the weather at the end of April and start of May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I have to laugh at the Huffington Post. Their headline story says "Britain to bask in Easter heatwave" which is at least half true, but if you scroll down the page, it says "Arctic blast to put Spring on hold." You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried.

Monday 22 Apr - Wednesday 1 May

During Easter Monday it may turn cooler and more unsettled across northern and western areas, with stronger winds and outbreaks of heavy rain. Many other areas will stay dry with warm spells of sunshine continuing. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is low confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm, at least for a time with showers or longer spells of rain and some periods with stronger winds. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Tuesday 2 May - Tuesday 17 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 23 Apr - Thursday 2 May

The fine weather will continue for many on Tuesday, with plenty of warm sunshine. Perhaps cloudier in the west or southwest with the risk of a few heavy showers by the afternoon or evening. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm, at least for a time with showers or longer spells of rain and some periods with stronger winds. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Wednesday 3 May - Wednesday 18 May

During the first half of May, there is very low confidence in the forecast. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 23 Apr - Thursday 2 May

The fine weather will continue for many on Tuesday, with plenty of warm sunshine. Perhaps cloudier in the west or southwest with the risk of a few heavy showers by the afternoon or evening. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm, at least for a time with showers or longer spells of rain and some periods with stronger winds. 

BBC forecast talking of a cut-off low in the SW approaches throwing up these showers in the shape of thunderstorms

Wednesday 24 Apr - Friday 3 May

There is a risk of thunderstorms from the south on Wednesday, with drier weather in the north. Temperatures could remain warmer than the seasonal average, and this is most likely in the south. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps become more changeable and generally less warm. There will be a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the north and west. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts, although overall, temperatures will still be close to average for late April. At times, there may be some marked variations in temperatures across the country though.

Thursday 4 May - Thursday 19 May

For the beginning of May, confidence in the forecast falls to low. On balance, there is a slightly greater chance that it will be settled, with some longer spells of dry and bright weather for many places, but especially so across the south. Rain is still possible at times, although with a good deal of fine weather temperatures will be mostly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Given that the confidence in these forecasts is described as low, it begs the question, is there any point in actually issuing them in the first place?

Thursday 25 Apr - Saturday 4 May

Showers with thunderstorms will clear northwards on Thursday. However, further showers will continue in the southwest, spreading across many areas through the day, again with the risk of hail and thunder. Thereafter, for the remainder of April there is lower confidence in the forecast, but the weather will perhaps be more unsettled and generally less warm. There will be a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. However, some drier, brighter and warmer interludes are still likely at times, these most probable across southern and southeastern parts. Overall into early May, temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and warmer than average in the south and southeast.

Sunday 5 May - Sunday 20 May

Early May is likely to begin with unsettled conditions dominating, however, a shift towards more settled conditions is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A fine and warm Easter. Often settled in May.

_________________________________

Saturday 20 April—Sunday 21 April

Warm, dry and sunny for most of us over Easter!

With a large area of high pressure located overhead the UK during the Easter weekend, then this means most of us will have a dry, settled and calm period of weather. Early patchy mist and even a few fog patches will soon burn off by mid-morning on both Saturday and Sunday to leave long periods of sunshine. It will be very warm for late April, with maximum temperatures reaching the low 20Cs widely over England and Wales and locally above 20C in parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. Across some inland central and southern parts of England, maximum temperatures of 24C and perhaps even 25C are possible. Around the coasts, it will be lovely and sunny for many areas, but the maximum temperatures will not be as high as inland, as sea breezes develop during the daytime. Some sea mist and fog could also roll into coastal areas at times, especially in the east. On Easter Sunday, an area of low pressure tracking eastwards close to Iceland will nudge fronts closer to the far north and west of Scotland, so turning cloudier here with the odd patch of light rain and drizzle. The majority of Scotland should stay dry, though.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April

Risk of a few thundery showers.

The forecast for next week has been causing a few headaches over the last few days. Initially, it seemed likely that we would see Atlantic low pressure areas moving down across the UK and completely displacing the high pressure away to the east. Such a scenario would have seen a big change in the weather, with a sharp temperature drop and breezy and showery weather, much more typical of April in the UK.

However, it now looks likely that an extensive area of high pressure, centred over Scandinavia will remain a key influence next week, blocking the eastwards progress of north Atlantic low pressure areas from moving across the UK and instead sending them down to southern France, Spain, Portugal and Italy. If you know anybody on holiday down there during this particular week, it is likely that the UK will have better weather than they will!

The good news for people with outdoor plans is that next week is looking like the warm weather will continue, as winds remaining from a balmy south or south-easterly direction. We do need to keep a close eye on an area of low pressure that may well nudge northwards from Spain across western parts of France and towards the far south-west of England during the middle of next week. This will contain some warm and humid air and threatens to push a few thunderstorms northwards over some southern and western parts of the UK. Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th look most prone to these storms, with south-west England and Wales most at risk. As is often the case with thunderstorms, some places will see a few downpours and plenty of lightning, yet a few miles away it will remains dry. A much lower risk of storms over central, eastern and northern areas.

Towards the end of the week, some wet and breezy weather may push in off the Atlantic into Scotland, but there is some uncertainty on this and it could end up staying drier here.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May

High pressure often in charge

The end of April and first half of May is very likely to see further 'blocked' weather patterns over the UK and the wider environment of the north Atlantic and Europe. This means a reduction in the normal west to east wind flows and 'jet stream' that typically push areas of low pressure from the north Atlantic into northern Europe. There is strong evidence in the latest forecast guidance to suggest that high pressure areas will continue to be more extensive than normal close to the UK and so we see reason to expect that the UK will often be drier than average, with winds often light and variable, rather than strong and sustained westerlies.

The main challenge we have with this forecast is getting the timings right. It seems likely that the high pressure areas will move around a bit during these 2 weeks and could shift to the west of the UK at times. When high pressure shifts to the west of the UK, then this pulls in winds from the north and north-east, a rather chilly direction, even in late spring! So, while it is difficult to pin down the timing of this, we suggest that a cooler interlude, perhaps with some wet and breezy weather as well, is likely at some point in these 2 weeks.

However, taking a broader view for the 2 weeks as a whole, there are some good signals for high pressure to still reside overhead the UK on many of the days. With the widespread sunshine this will bring, then we would expect some dry and warm spells. It could still be rather chilly at night under this high pressure and a local frost cannot be excluded in a few locations. To get warm and humid nights we would need southerly or south-westerly winds and the high pressure positioned to our east instead.

Next Update

After Easter is over, we'll be looking in detail on the final week of April and firming up on the signals throughout the first half of May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Huge fire ravages West Yorkshire moorland

https://news.sky.com/video/huge-fire-ravages-west-yorkshire-moorland-11699551 

Friday 26 Apr - Sunday 5 May

A band of showery rain is likely to reach the southwest on Friday, pushing eastwards with strong winds though the day. The weekend could be very unsettled, with often heavy rain and the risk of gales, especially in the west and southwest. Thunder and hail are also likely at times. Thereafter, for the remainder of April and early May, unsettled conditions are likely to dominate, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. Whilst some rain is expected at times, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions later. Temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and warmer than average in the south and southeast.

Monday 6 May - Monday 20 May

For the start of May, some rain and unsettled conditions are likely, but a shift towards more settled conditions is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 27 Apr - Monday 6 May

Next weekend could be very unsettled, with often heavy rain and the risk of gales, especially in the west and southwest. Thunder and hail are likely at times and temperatures will mainly be on the cold side of average. Thereafter, for the remainder of April and into early May, unsettled conditions are likely to dominate, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. Whilst some rain is expected at times, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions later. Temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and slightly warmer than the seasonal average in the south and southeast.

Tuesday 7 May - Tuesday 21 May

For the middle of May, some rain and unsettled conditions are likely, especially at first. However, a shift towards more settled conditions than of late is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures mostly above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast