Tuesday 2 July - Thursday 11 July

There will be showers in the north on Tuesday, with fine and dry conditions in the south. Most of the UK is likely to have some warm sunshine over the next few days, though it is not expected to be as hot as this week. It will be often dry and sunny for many eastern and southern areas, with the cloudiest conditions and likelihood of spells of rain across the north and northwest. Into next weekend confidence falls low. However, the most likely scenario is for mainly dry, bright and warm weather to continue, with warm temperatures mostly in the south and east but some cool nights will be possible too. Short-lived wetter and windier weather will also be likely at times, mainly in the north or northwest.

Friday 12 July - Friday 26 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Cooling off again


• Mostly dry for a time


• Wetter by mid-July

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/06/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-fun-sun/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 3 JUly - Friday 12 July 

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the likelihood for spells of rain and strong winds across northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Generally, it looks like a broadly fine and settled spell of weather for many towards the middle of the month. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm or warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the northwest, but still feeling warm here at times.

Saturday 13 July - Saturday 27 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July, perhaps with some hot weather spreading from the continent at times. However, the situation is very uncertain by then. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, a few dry and warm spells likely

_________________________________

Saturday 29 June – Sunday 7 July

Changeable week, but often dry in the South

A hot start to the weekend for many, with southerly winds bringing in some of the hot air over France to much of England with highs expected to be in the upper twenties to low thirties. Sunny and humid, but with growing clouds in the West as a cold front pushes in Saturday evening and night. This front will bring some heavy showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning to Scotland, Northern Ireland, North England, and North Wales. Staying dry further south and east.

The cold front passes overnight, leaving Sunday feeling noticeably cooler than the hot Saturday (although highs will be around average). A fresh westerly wind with mostly sunny skies and scattered showers in the west and north will persist through Monday. High pressure will then begin to build in through midweek, keeping things more settled, drier, and a touch warmer. However, this too will be short-lived as the high pressure centre weakens in the second half of the week, allowing a low to move in from the northwest. This will be showers and cloudier skies, mainly to northern and north-eastern areas with the south and southwest staying dry. Cooler with a fresh north-westerly wind.

Heading into the weekend, some uncertainties begin to grow, and low pressure is expected to linger over or near Scandinavia with a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. The main issue is now extensive high pressure ridges in the Atlantic will get, with a potential for the UK to see a fairly settled and slightly warmer weekend, but showers will likely still be a factor for the north-eastern counties.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Settled start, but turning wetter and cooler later

High pressure nearby to the west should keep the first part of the week settled, although winds will be out of the northwest bringing in some cooler air and rain to the far north of Scotland, western Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Low pressure systems over Scandinavia are expected to gradually shift west and be centred more over the UK by the middle of the week and into the end of the week. This will shift winds to more westerly but also bring a return of the slow-moving fronts that plagued the UK throughout June.

All this means that after a mostly dry start to the week, temperatures will tend to stay a bit below average as the weather turns gradually wetter for most. The best of any dryness will be in the South and Southeast, but even here occasional rain is likely. However, high pressure ridges will likely linger into Central Europe from the southwest, and these will tend to keep fronts and low pressure systems more in the northern half of the country than the southern half. There is a risk to the forecast (25%) that high pressure ridges will remain for extensive across the UK through the end of the week. This would mean things will generally be warmer, drier, and calmer overall. Temperatures in this scenario would tend to fall above average, with a potential for some very warm days later in the week.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled and cool; occasionally warmer

Low pressure tracks are expected to remain across North Europe as the jet stream - a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems - stays further south than normal for summer. Large low pressure systems will likely slowly drift westwards towards Iceland through the end of July, keep things generally unsettled in the UK with slow-moving fronts and cooler westerly or north-westerly winds persisting.

However, the hotter summertime temperatures in the sub-tropical Atlantic will keep the large high pressure centre near the Azores strong. This will occasional extend northeast into Central Europe, and between low pressure systems will even reach into the UK at times. This will lead to a changeable weather pattern with a high degree of weekly variability in both rainfall and temperatures. The general weather pattern is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a few dry and settled spells that bring in some warmer air. These most often in the south. There are currently no strong signals for any prolonged heat or dryness.

The main alternative scenario to the forecast for late July is that high pressure continues to be more extensive into the UK, resulting in a warmer and drier trend. This is summertime, and the Azores high pressure centre is strong throughout the month, so there is a chance (30%) that late July may turn a bit more summery than June and early July. In this situation there is a risk of another heat wave as well, and these are more common in late July.

Further ahead

We will continue to look at the unsettled weather pattern through July to see when things may finally dry out. This will give us a better picture of any late July heat as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 4 July - Saturday 13 July

Often dry and sunny for many southern and eastern parts of the UK, with the greatest likelihood for spells of rain likely to be across northern and northwestern parts for the start of July. There is an increasing signal for high pressure to become dominant as we go further into the period. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are likely to be across the UK. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies, whilst temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

Sunday 14 July - Sunday 28 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Not updated

Monday 15 July - Monday 29 July

Dry, bright and often warm weather is the most likely scenario for the first few days of this period. This could well continue later into July. However, the situation is very uncertain. If blocked high pressure were to be displaced significantly to the west or the east of the UK, we could end up with some changeable weather with significant rainfall at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Friday 5 June - Sunday 14 July

Friday will be dry and sunny for southern and eastern parts of the UK. It will be a cloudier day for northern and northwestern parts with a risk of some isolated showery outbreaks. Winds will be light. As we head through early July there is a good signal for high pressure to become dominant. The position of the high pressure will determine cloud amounts and where the highest temperatures are most likely. However, by and large, conditions should be generally fine and settled with warm temperatures for many southern and eastern areas, although with some cooler nights expected under clearer skies. Temperatures are likely to be closer to normal in the north and northwest, but it will still feel warm here at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 6 July - Monday 15 July

Early cloud in the south on Saturday should soon clear leaving sunny spells. Breezy in the east, with perhaps a few showers, but generally dry across the rest of the UK. By Sunday there's a risk of some thundery showers in the southwest, with settled weather continuing elsewhere. Temperatures near normal for most, but locally rather cool in the north. Through the second week of July there is likely to be a good deal of fine and settled weather, however the north and northwest may be cloudy and breezy with spells of rain at times. Temperatures could be warm at times across many central, southern and eastern areas, although some cool nights are expected under any clearer skies.

Tuesday 16 July - Tuesday 30 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, bringing us a good deal of fine and settled weather, and with any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

CPF June update

July to September

Temperature summary

For July-August-September as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for July-August-September will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 35 and 40% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jas-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For July-August-September as a whole, the chances of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jas-v2.pdf

Sunday 7 July - Tuesday 16 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Wednesday 17 July - Wednesday 31 July

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/48841640

Over a foot of rain in 24 hrs.

just bonkers that, really.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled but a few dry and warm spells too

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 July – Sunday 7 July

Often dry and settled but a wet spell in the north

The middle part of this week will be largely dry and settled for a time with mostly gentle winds albeit cool over northern Scotland. Through Thursday and Friday, high pressure will linger over England and Wales, bringing further mainly dry and settled weather here with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will rise, too, reaching the low to mid 20s Celsius. Scotland and Northern Ireland will become cloudier for a time, though, with a cold front moving in from the north, bringing a spell of rain.

Parts of western Scotland will have some rather heavy and persistent rain later on Thursday. However, any rain should clear southwards and ease by Friday afternoon. This weekend should then see a lot of dry weather over much of the country with spells of sunshine and often gentle winds. Staying cool for July in Scotland while temperatures further south are expected to be near to the seasonal average - feeling pleasant in any lengthier spells of sunshine.

Monday 8 July – Sunday 14 July

Wet in the northwest. Driest in the southeast.

Through next week, we expect rain-bearing weather fronts to approach from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over how far south and east any rain will extend. However, most likely is for a northwest-southeast split to the weather. Northern and western areas of the UK are likely to become wetter and breezier through the week with outbreaks of rain gradually becoming more widespread. However, there should also be a couple of drier and settled days, most likely early to mid-week.

Southern and eastern areas of the UK, including much of central and eastern England, are likely to have lengthier periods of dry and sunny weather with only a little rainfall. It should be warm at times in the south and east, too. However, there is a risk that rain-bearing fronts extend further south and east than expected later in the week, which would bring a cooler, breezier and wetter spell of weather more widely over the UK.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 28 July

Often unsettled but occasionally warm

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for July, bringing often unsettled conditions with only short-lived drier and sunnier periods of weather. Fronts moving in from the west are likely to bring some rather heavy spells of rain at times, with a chance of occasional thunder too. Rainfall amounts look like being highest over western and north-western areas of the UK. However, the southeast is likely to have some rainfall too with amounts probably above normal for July.

Breezy at times for many too. However, despite a rather wet outlook, it is not expected to be particularly chilly. Indeed, it is expected to be rather warm at times, perhaps with occasional plumes of very warm weather moving in from the near continent over central and eastern England. There is a chance that the rain-bearing low pressure areas stay a little further east than currently expected, which would lead to drier and brighter conditions through mid to late July, particularly in the west and north.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if any lengthier dry and warm periods of summer weather may develop or whether it is still looking like a generally unsettled July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Sunday 8 July - Wednesday 17 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Thursday 18 July - Thursday 1 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 9 July - Thursday 18 July

This period will start with predominately dry and fine weather in the south, and less settled weathr in the north, with outbreaks of rain at times and breezier conditions. By Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to become less settled everywhere across the UK, with outbreaks of rain likely. Temperatures will be near the average for the time of year, but it will be locally warm in the south at first. Towards the middle of July, it looks as though high pressure will build to the south of the UK, but with low pressure to the north. This will likely allow further outbreaks of rain or showers, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north.

Friday 19 July - Friday 2 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, with a continued signal for lower than average pressure to be more likely across the north and higher pressure to the south. This may lead to spells of rain for all, but this heaviest and most persistent in the NW where above average rainfall is possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This was published by the Met Office on 22nd June and sums up how completely pointless, useless and clueless these joke outlooks are.

The reality is the complete opposite as yet again the NE is being singled out to endure the vilest summer weather imaginable with conditions that would be considered a disgrace in Shetland. Rain all day so far and 13C here as the misery of a truly awful start to July intensifies. Couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw they’d written that nonsense. As if high pressure would ever be centred on the NE these days

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill low


• Wetter spell mid-July


• Some improvement by August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/05/john-hammond-month-ahead-beware-summer-soothsayers/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 10 July - Friday 19 July

It will be a slightly more unsettled period than of late, with a mixture of bright or sunny spells and outbreaks of rain or showers, possibly heavy at times, especially in the northwest. Towards the middle of the month, it looks as though high pressure is likely to build to the south of the UK, but with low pressure to the north. This will likely give further outbreaks of rain or showers, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north. Meanwhile, much of the south should see largely dry conditions. Temperatures will be near the average for the time of year, but it will be locally warm in the south, especially at first.

Saturday 20 July - Saturday 3 August 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, with a continued signal for lower than average pressure to be more likely across the north and higher pressure to the south. This may lead to spells of rain for all, but this heaviest and most persistent in the NW where above average rainfall is possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook rain at times but some warmth

_________________________________

Saturday 6 July – Sunday 14 July

Mixed bag of weather but some warmth in the south

This weekend, fresher air will move in from the north as a weak cold front clears southwards from the UK. This front will bring a band of cloud and spots of rain southwards over the Midlands and parts of southern Britain on Saturday. Otherwise, much of the UK will see a mixture of sunny intervals and areas of cloud this weekend with only a few localised showers.

On Monday, temperatures should rise slightly with most areas seeing at least a few bright or sunny spells but the south could see a few showery outbreaks of rain. Tuesday should see a lot of dry and settled weather over England and Wales, thanks to a high pressure area but rain looks like making inroads from the west across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Through Wednesday to Friday, a more unsettled spell of weather seems likely with showery outbreaks of rain toppling south-eastwards across the UK. However, there should be a few drier interludes as well. Feeling rather warm and humid, too, where any brighter interludes manage to break through.

By next weekend, the unsettled weather should move away to our east as high pressure approaches from the Atlantic, bringing drier, brighter and warmer weather for most. However, there is a chance that the showers and rain could linger into the first part of the weekend.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

Dry and warm initially, then cooler and wetter

The early part of the week is likely to remain largely dry and warm with an area of high pressure dominating the weather. There is the potential for some very warm or hot weather for a time. However, as the week progresses, we are likely to see weather fronts returning from the Atlantic, bringing a change to wetter and somewhat cooler weather from the west. Most areas should see some rainfall at times through the second half of the week.

Turning coolest in the north, perhaps with temperatures dipping a little below the seasonal average in Scotland by the end of the week. Turning breezier at times in the north, too. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition of the weather; there are chances that the drier and warm weather could hold on throughout the week.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

Rather unsettled but warm at times in the south

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for summer in late July and into the start of August. This means that it is expected to be unsettled at times with showers and some bands of rain for most, occasionally accompanied by breezy conditions as well. However, most places will also see some drier and sunnier days in-between the spells of rain. Temperatures should not be far from the seasonal average in the north of the UK.

In the south, some warm or occasional very warm spells of weather appear likely with temperatures there a little above the seasonal average. Again, there is a chance that low pressure ends-up staying much further away to our north, which would mean lengthier periods of dry and settled weather if that happens.

Further ahead

The next month is likely to see changeable conditions with some unsettled weather at times. We will take a look to see if there are any signs of low pressure moving further away from the shores of the UK to bring any lengthier periods of summery weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 11 July - Saturday 20 July

After a largely settled start to July, the beginning of this period will be more unsettled, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. It will be warm and humid too with the potential for the rain to be heavy at times. As we move into the weekend, it is likely to turn more settled again and slightly fresher, with plenty of dry and sunny weather. These settled conditions should last into the following week although there is a lot of uncertainty in how long this will last, with the potential for further changeable weather to push in from the Atlantic at times. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during settled weather.

Sunday 21 July - Sunday 4 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast during the second half of July, with the potential for conditions to continue to slowly turn more unsettled through the middle of the month, although still with some drier spells possible. Later in July, the unsettled weather may tend to be focused across the northwest, with southeastern areas turning more settled again. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, which carries higher confidence.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Alaska heatwave: Anchorage hits record temperature

The US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, is sweltering under a heatwave, with record temperatures recorded in several areas, including its largest city. Temperatures reached 90F (32C) in Anchorage on Thursday, shattering the city's previous record of 85F.

Several other places in southern Alaska also set all-time or daily records. Experts say the unusual weather has been caused by a "heat dome" over the southern part of the state. The high pressure system is expected to move north next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48890556

Friday 12 July - Sunday 21 July

On Friday many places will start dry and bright. However, cloud will soon develop with further slow-moving, heavy and thundery showers breaking out quite widely across UK. Temperatures near normal for the time of year, although in longer spells of sunshine it will feel warm and humid. As we move into the weekend, it is likely to turn more settled again and slightly fresher, with increasing amounts of dry and sunny weather. These settled conditions should last into the following week although there is a lot of uncertainty in how long this will last, with the potential for further changeable weather to push in from the Atlantic at times. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during settled weather.

Monday 22 July - Monday 5 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast during the second half of July, with the potential for conditions to continue to slowly turn more unsettled through the middle of the month, although still with some drier spells possible. Later in July, the unsettled weather may tend to be focused across the northwest, with southeastern areas turning more settled again. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, which carries higher confidence.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 13 July - Monday 22 July

Both Saturday and Sunday should start dry and bright, but a few showers will develop during the day, especially across central and eastern areas. Monday should be a dry day for most, with bright or sunny spells. Temperatures will be near normal, but locally warm in the sunnier parts of the south and southwest. Through the following week, the settled and largely dry weather is likely to continue, particularly across the south and southeast, but Atlantic weather systems may bring some wetter and windier conditions across the UK at times, although timings of these periods of more changeable weather is very uncertain. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of settled weather.

Tuesday 23 July - Tuesday 6 August

The last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at times as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK at times, dispelling the high pressure. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain, especially at first. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast