BBC monthly outlook
Wet this weekend. Dry and warm at times in August
Saturday 27 July – Sunday 4 August
Rain this weekend. Becoming drier next week.
A slow moving front will lie across Scotland, northern and eastern England on Saturday. This will bring a lot of cloud and widespread rain, the rain persistent and heavy in some areas, perhaps turning locally thundery. Southern and southwestern England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to remain largely dry with sunny spells, and only a slight chance of showers. The front will be a little further south and west on Sunday, so the Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland will have a cloudier, wet day. The far south-west of the UK will remain largely dry, and eastern Scotland and north-east England should be a little brighter but with occasional showers.
Temperatures will be near normal for the time of year for most parts of the UK over the weekend. An Atlantic low pressure system could bring a spell of windy and wet weather to south-west and southern England on Monday and to south east England on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the main pattern for next week will see low pressure to the west of the UK, but a ridge of high pressure building across the country. There will be some showers and rain in the north and west of the UK before the ridge of high pressure arrives, but the second half of the week should be drier than the first. Temperatures will be near normal, perhaps lifting above later in the week as high pressure arrives.
Monday 5 August – Sunday 11 August
Becoming unsettled and wetter than normal for some
After the relatively dry end to the previous week, the first full week of August looks likely to bring us more unsettled weather. The ridge of high pressure sitting across the UK is expected to drift eastwards into Europe, with Atlantic low pressure expected to move in from the west to bring spells of wet weather to many parts of the UK. It looks wetter than average for the time of year in many areas, which may be good news for some areas of the country which have been having a relatively dry summer so far.
Temperatures are likely to be a little above normal at first but will drop the near normal as the weather becomes more unsettled. There will be a chance of some windy days too. Whilst unsettled weather looks more likely than calmer weather, there is a chance that we could see high pressure clinging on. This would mean drier, less windy and slightly warmer weather, in a pattern similar to that at the start of July i.e. high pressure over the UK on a number of days with low pressure off towards Scandinavia.
Monday 12 August – Sunday 25 August
Tending to become drier and warmer in most areas.
The middle and end of August is likely to see high pressure becoming more of a feature across France and Central Europe, with the high pressure extending across the UK at times. This gives us a higher chance of seeing dry weather and could also help temperatures to rise above normal. Atlantic low pressure systems are expected to continue to track close to the north and north-west of the UK at times, so it is not expected to be completely dry with spells of showery or rainy weather likely.
Scotland could see rainfall remaining above average and it most likely to see temperatures near normal, whilst the rest of the country looks drier than normal, less windy than normal and a bit warmer too. The most likely alternative to our expected forecast is for low pressure to remain the main feature across the UK, with temperatures remaining near normal, some windy days and with rainfall near or above normal in most areas. It is probably worth noting that there is a small - perhaps just a 1 in 10 - chance of another spell of very warm weather developing if high pressure is stronger across the UK.
The weather looks fairly changeable over August as a whole, but we'll take another look at the chances of dry and very warm weather later in the month.