Sunday 8 July - Wednesday 17 July

This period will start with predominantly dry and warm weather in the south, but a slightly more changeable look further north, with occasional rain or showers and breezier conditions. By midweek, a slightly more unsettled spell of weather looks most likely, with sunny spells and showers. Some of these could be heavy and thundery, accompanied by stronger winds at times, especially in the south, compared to the start of the period. Temperatures will be on the warm side in central and southern parts, but closer to average further north. Towards mid July, there is an emerging signal that high pressure will re-establish itself close to the southwest of the UK, bringing a return to fine, settled weather here, but further showers are likely in the north and northwest.

Thursday 18 July - Thursday 1 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, however it is most likely that high pressure will dominate at the start of this period, probably anchored to the west or southwest of the UK, meaning a good deal of fine and settled weather, and any rain most likely to be in the north and northwest. By the last week of July the high pressure may move away from the UK. If this occurs we are likely to have some spells of breezier, more changeable weather. Rainfall amounts are most likely to be near normal for the end of July, but with a risk of wetter conditions in the northwest.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 9 July - Thursday 18 July

This period will start with predominately dry and fine weather in the south, and less settled weathr in the north, with outbreaks of rain at times and breezier conditions. By Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to become less settled everywhere across the UK, with outbreaks of rain likely. Temperatures will be near the average for the time of year, but it will be locally warm in the south at first. Towards the middle of July, it looks as though high pressure will build to the south of the UK, but with low pressure to the north. This will likely allow further outbreaks of rain or showers, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north.

Friday 19 July - Friday 2 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, with a continued signal for lower than average pressure to be more likely across the north and higher pressure to the south. This may lead to spells of rain for all, but this heaviest and most persistent in the NW where above average rainfall is possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This was published by the Met Office on 22nd June and sums up how completely pointless, useless and clueless these joke outlooks are.

Thursday 27 June - Saturday 6 July

Early showers and possible thunderstorms will clear northwards during Thursday morning to leave a mostly dry day, with sunny spells, especially away from North Sea coasts. Turning increasingly sunny across southern and eastern England, where it'll be humid and potentially very hot. Friday looks set to stay hot and humid in the south and east, with the risk of some showers in the west. By the weekend and into the following week, confidence is low, with uncertainty in the possibilty of a breakdown to fresher conditions gradually spreading in from the west. Thereafter, as we go into early July it may turn more settled with longer spells of drier weather, mainly in the northeast. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a potentially very warm start to the period.

The reality is the complete opposite as yet again the NE is being singled out to endure the vilest summer weather imaginable with conditions that would be considered a disgrace in Shetland. Rain all day so far and 13C here as the misery of a truly awful start to July intensifies. Couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw they’d written that nonsense. As if high pressure would ever be centred on the NE these days

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill low


• Wetter spell mid-July


• Some improvement by August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/05/john-hammond-month-ahead-beware-summer-soothsayers/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 10 July - Friday 19 July

It will be a slightly more unsettled period than of late, with a mixture of bright or sunny spells and outbreaks of rain or showers, possibly heavy at times, especially in the northwest. Towards the middle of the month, it looks as though high pressure is likely to build to the south of the UK, but with low pressure to the north. This will likely give further outbreaks of rain or showers, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north. Meanwhile, much of the south should see largely dry conditions. Temperatures will be near the average for the time of year, but it will be locally warm in the south, especially at first.

Saturday 20 July - Saturday 3 August 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast through the second half of July, with a continued signal for lower than average pressure to be more likely across the north and higher pressure to the south. This may lead to spells of rain for all, but this heaviest and most persistent in the NW where above average rainfall is possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook rain at times but some warmth

_________________________________

Saturday 6 July – Sunday 14 July

Mixed bag of weather but some warmth in the south

This weekend, fresher air will move in from the north as a weak cold front clears southwards from the UK. This front will bring a band of cloud and spots of rain southwards over the Midlands and parts of southern Britain on Saturday. Otherwise, much of the UK will see a mixture of sunny intervals and areas of cloud this weekend with only a few localised showers.

On Monday, temperatures should rise slightly with most areas seeing at least a few bright or sunny spells but the south could see a few showery outbreaks of rain. Tuesday should see a lot of dry and settled weather over England and Wales, thanks to a high pressure area but rain looks like making inroads from the west across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Through Wednesday to Friday, a more unsettled spell of weather seems likely with showery outbreaks of rain toppling south-eastwards across the UK. However, there should be a few drier interludes as well. Feeling rather warm and humid, too, where any brighter interludes manage to break through.

By next weekend, the unsettled weather should move away to our east as high pressure approaches from the Atlantic, bringing drier, brighter and warmer weather for most. However, there is a chance that the showers and rain could linger into the first part of the weekend.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

Dry and warm initially, then cooler and wetter

The early part of the week is likely to remain largely dry and warm with an area of high pressure dominating the weather. There is the potential for some very warm or hot weather for a time. However, as the week progresses, we are likely to see weather fronts returning from the Atlantic, bringing a change to wetter and somewhat cooler weather from the west. Most areas should see some rainfall at times through the second half of the week.

Turning coolest in the north, perhaps with temperatures dipping a little below the seasonal average in Scotland by the end of the week. Turning breezier at times in the north, too. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition of the weather; there are chances that the drier and warm weather could hold on throughout the week.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

Rather unsettled but warm at times in the south

Indications are for low pressure areas to be further south than normal for summer in late July and into the start of August. This means that it is expected to be unsettled at times with showers and some bands of rain for most, occasionally accompanied by breezy conditions as well. However, most places will also see some drier and sunnier days in-between the spells of rain. Temperatures should not be far from the seasonal average in the north of the UK.

In the south, some warm or occasional very warm spells of weather appear likely with temperatures there a little above the seasonal average. Again, there is a chance that low pressure ends-up staying much further away to our north, which would mean lengthier periods of dry and settled weather if that happens.

Further ahead

The next month is likely to see changeable conditions with some unsettled weather at times. We will take a look to see if there are any signs of low pressure moving further away from the shores of the UK to bring any lengthier periods of summery weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 11 July - Saturday 20 July

After a largely settled start to July, the beginning of this period will be more unsettled, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. It will be warm and humid too with the potential for the rain to be heavy at times. As we move into the weekend, it is likely to turn more settled again and slightly fresher, with plenty of dry and sunny weather. These settled conditions should last into the following week although there is a lot of uncertainty in how long this will last, with the potential for further changeable weather to push in from the Atlantic at times. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during settled weather.

Sunday 21 July - Sunday 4 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast during the second half of July, with the potential for conditions to continue to slowly turn more unsettled through the middle of the month, although still with some drier spells possible. Later in July, the unsettled weather may tend to be focused across the northwest, with southeastern areas turning more settled again. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, which carries higher confidence.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Alaska heatwave: Anchorage hits record temperature

The US state of Alaska, part of which lies inside the Arctic Circle, is sweltering under a heatwave, with record temperatures recorded in several areas, including its largest city. Temperatures reached 90F (32C) in Anchorage on Thursday, shattering the city's previous record of 85F.

Several other places in southern Alaska also set all-time or daily records. Experts say the unusual weather has been caused by a "heat dome" over the southern part of the state. The high pressure system is expected to move north next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48890556

Friday 12 July - Sunday 21 July

On Friday many places will start dry and bright. However, cloud will soon develop with further slow-moving, heavy and thundery showers breaking out quite widely across UK. Temperatures near normal for the time of year, although in longer spells of sunshine it will feel warm and humid. As we move into the weekend, it is likely to turn more settled again and slightly fresher, with increasing amounts of dry and sunny weather. These settled conditions should last into the following week although there is a lot of uncertainty in how long this will last, with the potential for further changeable weather to push in from the Atlantic at times. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during settled weather.

Monday 22 July - Monday 5 August

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast during the second half of July, with the potential for conditions to continue to slowly turn more unsettled through the middle of the month, although still with some drier spells possible. Later in July, the unsettled weather may tend to be focused across the northwest, with southeastern areas turning more settled again. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, which carries higher confidence.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Saturday 13 July - Monday 22 July

Both Saturday and Sunday should start dry and bright, but a few showers will develop during the day, especially across central and eastern areas. Monday should be a dry day for most, with bright or sunny spells. Temperatures will be near normal, but locally warm in the sunnier parts of the south and southwest. Through the following week, the settled and largely dry weather is likely to continue, particularly across the south and southeast, but Atlantic weather systems may bring some wetter and windier conditions across the UK at times, although timings of these periods of more changeable weather is very uncertain. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of settled weather.

Tuesday 23 July - Tuesday 6 August

The last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at times as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK at times, dispelling the high pressure. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain, especially at first. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 14 July - Tuesday 23 July

Sunday should be largely dry with sunny spells although it will feel cool along North Sea coasts. Temperatures will be near normal for most, but it will be warm in sunnier parts of the south and west. Monday should be a dry day for most, with bright or sunny spells, but a few showers may develop. Through the following week Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK, more especially across the north and west. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain predominantly settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of settled weather.

Wednesday 24 July - Wednesday 7 August

The last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at times as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain, especially at first. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Washington DC getting flooded:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-48911919/dangerous-flash-floods-hit-washington-dc-area

I wouldn't fancy being in the Metro with water cascading through the roof!

Ooops.

Simon King's forecasts tend to be a bit hit and miss on Five Live but this one was to put it mildly erroneous.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July

An unsettled start, but turning fine later

Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.

Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later

During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

A return to summer-like weather by August

The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.

High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.

Further ahead

Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July

An unsettled start, but turning fine later

Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.

Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later

During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

A return to summer-like weather by August

The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.

High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.

Further ahead

Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

What is quoted here for that middle week (which is next week) seems to be in the more unsettled camp as far as the model output is concerned but as we know, there is actually a discrepancy between the models just now between an unsettled solution for next week and more unsettled one.

The local forecasts on the BBC Weather site are going for the weather to be more unsettled here in Edinburgh from next Tuesday onwards, but keeps it completely settled down in London throughout that period. That would actually therefore suggest more of a north-south split across the UK with the north becoming more unsettled, but with the south remaining settled and that is something which I have gone more into with my latest post on the MO thread.

Monday 15 July - Wednesday 24 July

Monday should be a dry day across most of the UK, with bright or sunny spells, although there will perhaps just be the odd shower in a few places. Through the rest of the week, Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK, more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain dry and settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of sunny and dry weather.

Thursday 25 July - Thursday 8 August 

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 16 July - Thursday 25 July

It will turn cloudier in the west on Tuesday, with a risk of showers and thunderstorms developing here. Elsewhere it will still be largely sunny, however through the rest of the week, Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK. This unsettled weather will be more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and they are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain dry and settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of sunny and dry weather.

Friday 26 July - Friday 9 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the end of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first, as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, with a chance of hot conditions in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Meto suggesting hot conditions possible in the south late July early August. the signs are there in the output. 

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill remains low


• Mixed through late July


• Drier and warmer early August?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-all-set-summer-holidays/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 17 July - Friday 26 July

Overnight mist and low cloud will disperse on Wednesday morning followed by sunny spells and showers for many, with the risk of thunder. Later on Wednesday into Thursday there is the chance of more persistent rain arriving from the west, and Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and windier spells across the UK for the rest of the week. This unsettled weather will be more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms. There will also be some drier, brighter periods, with southern and southeastern areas probably maintaining the drier conditions. Another generally drier, more settled interlude is possible later in the month. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above average overall, with the possibility of a brief very warm spell in the southeast.

Saturday 27 July - Saturday 10 August 

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the end of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first, as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain above the seasonal average, with a chance of hot conditions in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast