BBC monthly outlook
A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August
Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July
An unsettled start, but turning fine later
Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.
Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.
Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July
A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later
During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.
Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August
A return to summer-like weather by August
The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.
High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.
Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?