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Evening Peter. Well now here’s the thing. I’ll actually be residing in the Holiday Inn Huntingdon Racecourse. I’ll be spending a lot of time in that region now for business requirements as a director now. That’s not a thinly veiled brag, it’s just a brag to be honest.
Fingers crossed for some white stuff
The hurricane is back by the way on the 18Z.
Not as dramatic as the 0Z but still. Wonder what's causing the model to produce these ridiculous barotropic systems. I suppose a polar low developing NW of scotland is possible, its happened before. The high res models tend to overdo barotropic development of Medicanes too.
A growing trend for something MUCH milder in early February now. Met Office will surely have to change this wintry 15-30 day guff soon.
You really don't help yourself at times, Mooms
If anything the latest GEFS look like trending the other way as we head into Feb.
The Met Office 6-30 day forecast does not describe a winter nirvana. It says there only a low chance of very cold NE or E winds in the 6-15 day period suggesting marginal conditions and mentioning rain, sleet and snow. The 15-30 day forecasts mentions milder interludes as well. Plus the GFS only just goes into the 15 day period but at that range is pot luck. In the more reliable timeframe it looks colder than average with a snow risk for at least a week. With these points in mind why would they change their forecast?
According to an article in the Sunday Times they have issued a warning of severe cold in early Feb to the government with a 70% of it happening. That's a pretty high level of confidence IMO.
Interesting. Is this from yesterday, can you post the link?
No. I cancelled my subscription and read it in a hard copy.
ECM 00z a mixed bag today. Thin crust pizza on the menu at 240 but often quite cold before then.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=00&charthour=240&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C
Jam tomorrow? More like rain for many if Arpege is on the money. GFS 12 bore much keener on snow and Icon somewhere in between. Interesting day for sure.
Ah okay, was it yesterday’s paper though?
Edit: Dont worry I found it (from the 13th unless it had been rereleased)
”The winds above the Arctic have also gone into reverse . . . it raises the risk of strong easterly winds bringing freezing Siberian air over the UK.” He estimates a 70% chance of a severe cold spell around the end of January/early February.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-office-beast-from-the-east-to-roar-again-0z8wphjb8
Euro4 (which is available out to T+60 here) shows the band starting as rain/sleet, but turning to snow as it moves eastwards. AFAIK Euro4 is a lower-res cousin of UKV, which is used for the short-term forecasts on the MetO site.
Euro4 looks more impressive decent amount for most.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
If you want an example of how difficult it can be to forecast the weather in the UK, then check out the difference between last nights 96hr FAX chart from the UKMO and the 'updated' chart at 84hr, for the same time, 12Z Thu. A major modification in the space of approx 6-12hrs... pic.twitter.com/HIL96EyQJU— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 28, 2019
If you want an example of how difficult it can be to forecast the weather in the UK, then check out the difference between last nights 96hr FAX chart from the UKMO and the 'updated' chart at 84hr, for the same time, 12Z Thu. A major modification in the space of approx 6-12hrs... pic.twitter.com/HIL96EyQJU
Besides tomorrow’s probable sleet and snow, ICON throws up a major event for Thursday
Ah okay, was it yesterday’s paper though?Edit: Dont worry I found it (from the 13th unless it had been rereleased)”The winds above the Arctic have also gone into reverse . . . it raises the risk of strong easterly winds bringing freezing Siberian air over the UK.” He estimates a 70% chance of a severe cold spell around the end of January/early February.”https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-office-beast-from-the-east-to-roar-again-0z8wphjb8
That's a remarkably high confidence level for such a long range forecast. Let's wait and see what happens before lauding or criticising.
Part of the articles reads:
"It comes after a heat surge in the Arctic saw air temperatures over the North Pole rise by 65C in two days. Such surges are known to increase the risk of wintry blasts hitting Britain".
As we know, all this "hot air" and talk of SSW causing beasts and the like does not guarantee cold weather to hit the UK. There are the "other 99" ingredients needed to fall into place for it to happen here.
We have had cold weather from non SSW events as well.
Well I’m still confident we’ll see lying snow IMBY by the end of tomorrow, it could possibly start off as rain mind you. As for Thursdays feature, that too could end up delivering a snow event for many areas from the Midlands northwards though going off previous form with similar set ups I think the northern extent could well be the Midlands and where the front stalls and pivots could be primed for a good dump. 😁