The linked article found by doctor mog is dated Jan 13th. A fortnight is a long time in weather forecasting

 Even more remarkable that such a high confidence level was attached in that case.  It's going to be a very impressive piece of forecasting if it verifies, but let's wait and see.

Yes, there are many other factors but it is highly improbable that the Met Office, with their extensive forecasting models, would not have taken everything into account before issuing such an alert. As others have said, 70% is a high level of confidence - but it does still mean almost a one in three chance of it not happening.

Or.....

70%....80%.....90%.....

Just followed Matt's advice - the differences are indeed stark - fortunately, they favour snow - let's hope the Thursday/Friday low maintains a track which delivers for lowland England.

That little Polar Low - has re-intensified over scotland on the arpege . Amazing little feature. Average wind speed about 70pm, with gusts up to and above 100mph once its through shetland.

Edit: for a smidge it becomes hurricane strength again 150 miles off the coast of WICK.

back to the snow - I suspect there will be met warnings covering a large swathe of England and wales to cover all bases, rather than a small one for SE..  Each model has a slightly different extent and impact from this weeks snow.

edit: must have been some lag ion my internet, as MET have already updated to reflect the above.  

GFS still wants to builds a ridge but ECM looks confident in flattening the pattern and SWerlys

Maybe it is my imagination, but from what I have seen, ECM has been the worst performing model over the past few weeks for our neck of the woods.

Yes, I know someone will post verification stats showing ECM as the top model, but either they are wrong, or they give a misleading impression, since they are based on the hemispheric patterns rather than the small scale which so impact UK weather on the ground.

There are two tropical cyclones on the ARPEGE0Z

What the hell is going on?

Thinking of linking up

This is now being shown on other models too including WRF and ICON.

Seems like we have to take the possibility of a tropical like storm hitting the UK seriously.

Polar lows do occasionally come this far south, but its very unusual for them to be this strong. These are more like medicanes than polar lows.

ICON.

This is not a baroclinic system. It has an eyewall and a warm core.

What the actual hell?

Its nothing compared to this nonsense of course.

Yesterday's 0Z showing a Catogary 2 hurricane landfalling in Scotland.

To be clear that's an actual hurricane, not a depression with hurricane force winds, an actual hurricane.

Yes there has been a trend for this but usually it keeps getting flattened!

This is what the strongest polar low ever looked like.

Seems like this record could be under threat.

That being said the meseoscale models are way too keen to blow medicanes up too, so I can't imagine it verifying especially not in the way its being shown.

What a guess - flattened at +252 on 06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_252_1.png

run but 0z run brings that HP to Scandinavia:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_252_1.png

I'm guessing 'windy' would be a safe bet.

Polar lows do occasionally hit scotland, they are usually pretty good snow and soft hail makers but since they are fuelled by tropical processes they die really quickly when they go inland, so don't expect anything out of it if you are away from N or W coasts.

And yes I am of the opinion that polar lows are more similar to TCs than depressions. Unlike (most) TCs they develop out of baroclinic disturbances but like TCs there intensification and maintance is determined by surface fluxes rather than horizontal temperature gradients. Although since they are extremely shallow and underneath cold core lows it may be more accurate to describe them as being like subtropical cyclones.

Although that thing yesterday was not a subtropical cyclone, it was a catogary 2 hurricane.

Eventually it makes yet another attempt and finally gets there @ 336z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_336_1.png

Nice to see an easterly could be still on the ca\rds even if it's in FI!

Q - where is that warm core originating from?  From the air drying?  IF its sourced from colder climates, how can it create a warmer (albeit still frigid) core?

Yes, it's the second successive GFS operational run to produce something broadly similar in FI, so perhaps it's picked up on something. It would be consistent with the Met Office extended outlook. One lives in hope. :)