BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Staying unsettled and cold at times
Saturday 26 January—Sunday 3 February
A cold week with a chance of snow
The weekend is expected to be unsettled as a low pressure system moves eastwards across the United Kingdom. Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with rain in the north and west of the country, and some snow for northern Scotland. Central, southern and eastern parts of the UK should be dry for much of the day, but will see rain later in the afternoon and during the evening. It will be a relatively mild day for the time of year. Sunday will see showers and perhaps some more widespread rain affecting the country. There will be some sunny spells, but it will feel chilly as a strong northerly wind affects all areas. Next week will be unsettled and chilly as low pressure systems continue to move east or southeastwards across the country.
We're seeing day-to-day differences in the detail of the forecast, but the first half of the week looks cold and showery, with the chance of some snow in places, chiefly the north of the country. The second half of the week is likely to see a large low pressure system moving out of the North Atlantic towards the UK. This system may bring more widespread snow to the UK, although the details of the snow risk remain uncertain. The same low pressure system is also likely to bring a spell of southerly or south-westerly winds, so the second half of next week looks milder than the first half of the week, although it will still be rather cool.
Monday 4 February—Sunday 10 February
Staying cold with the risk of snow
The first full week of February is likely to continue the pattern we're expecting at the end of January. The most likely case is for the weather to remain cold and unsettled as low pressure systems pass close to or across the UK. However, there is low confidence in the forecast at this range, mainly because there are some indications that we could see a more 'blocked' pattern, with high pressure extending across Europe and less of an Atlantic influence on the weather.
If this happens, then there could be a spell of colder weather for Eastern and Central Europe. Whether any colder air would reach as far as western Europe is uncertain, but there aren't any signs of sustained cold and snowy weather for the UK. One other option is that we see much more activity in the North Atlantic, with deeper low pressure systems pushing into western Europe. In this case, the UK would probably be milder, wetter and windier than expected. This option is the least likely, but with current levels of uncertainty it cannot be ruled out.
Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February
Unsettled but maybe a bit less cold
The two key features of the forecast for the middle of February are that it will remain unsettled with low pressure systems continuing to affect the UK, but it should become a little less cold. Atlantic low pressure systems are quite likely to continue to move east or southeast into Europe. It looks like the track of these low pressure systems will shift a little further north compared to the start of the month.
The UK is still expected to be affected by these weather systems, so further showers and rain are likely, and there will be the chance of some windy weather at times. However, there will also be more of a chance of less cold or mild southwesterly winds reaching us. This means that although temperatures are expected to be a little below normal for the time of year, and some cold spells of weather are likely, there should be some milder spells of weather at times too. We still don't see any sustained cold weather or any prolonged easterly winds at this stage. In fact, the most likely alternative pattern is for milder weather if the Atlantic becomes more active than we expect.
Next Update
Any more snow on the way for the end of February?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook