Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and some snow are likely to move slowly south and eastwards on Saturday, but tending to become lighter and more patchy as it does so. Sunday looks generally quiet, with a good deal of dry and bright weather. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly on the cold side, but also unsettled and sometimes windy, with gales possible in the north. Any milder spells will tend to be brief, and associated with longer spells of rain. The rain could turn to snow at times, particularly across northern, central and eastern areas, especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, during such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2019:

For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of colder weather being established across the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

What happened to that "to become cold or very cold." - after the downward trend. Which was in the Met Office 16-30 day text update yesterday?

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What happened to that "to become cold or very cold." - after the downward trend. Which was in the Met Office 16-30 day text update yesterday?

 

Instead it says " frosts could become widespread and severe".

Gav's done a video showing that the CFSv2 has started to back away from this northern block after a week of upgrades to colder/blocked weather etc.



So I wonder if the JMA, Met Office Glosea 5, BCC and ECMWF as well as the MeteoFrance longer range seasonal model output will back away from this too?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

More meat on the bones there. 

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BBC Weather (Video) showed a bit of Snow for the E and SE Thursday Morning 

BBC Weather

 

 

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Latest MetO update is a backward step no matter how you dress it up. What we have now is a rather cold set up with any wintry weather reserved for more northern and elevated areas. Could this be the winter in which seasonal modelling is out of synch with the short term models, with the latter being nearer the mark.

This is an interesting discussion from the Met Office esp with Chris Tubb's the Meteorologist comes in to talk: He suggests a 20 to 25% chance of an easterly next Wednesday:

Fast forward and play from 24 mins:

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gavsweathervids uploaded the EC 30 day weather forecast for the UK & Europe:

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Latest MetO update is a backward step no matter how you dress it up. What we have now is a rather cold set up with any wintry weather reserved for more northern and elevated areas. Could this be the winter in which seasonal modelling is out of synch with the short term models, with the latter being nearer the mark.

I don't see that at all - they have now thrown in the chance of disruptive snow 

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I don't see that at all - they have now thrown in the chance of disruptive snow 

As an onlooker have they thrown it in or out. Please.

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I don't see that at all - they have now thrown in the chance of disruptive snow 

 

Yes its a good outlook I don't understand the reaction it got on NW .

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On the subject of Met Office forecasts. The one for this region has the following for tomorrow:

“Bright with some sunshine at times. Also some showers, heavier later, turning to snow on high ground, and to low levels in the evening, some accumulations.”

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On the subject of Met Office forecasts. The one for this region has the following for tomorrow:

“Bright with some sunshine at times. Also some showers, heavier later, turning to snow on high ground, and to low levels in the evening, some accumulations.”

Sounds promising Doc 

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Yes its a good outlook I don't understand the reaction it got on NW .

Its a case of us losing the very cold signal I guess, it’s not a bad update per se but I think many were expecting something different than standard winter fayre. 😁

Considerable uncertainties later next week with no preferred solution to the less cold GFS and ECM easterly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46886378 

In the short term there's snow forecast over the hills for the South West by the Met Office over Friday night into Saturday. "Rain and hill snow are likely on Friday and perhaps into Saturday ". My local Met Officd automated forecast also goes for 9 hours of light snow over night Friday into Saturday. Granted I'm at nearly 300m but it's a nice start to things.

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Met Office yellow warnings issued

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-16 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning rather chilly and unsettled

Wednesday 16 January—Sunday 20 January

Turning chilly. Wetter over the weekend

The rest of the week looks to be generally unsettled with periods of rain and some dry spells. It will turn quite cold with some wintry precipitation possible in higher terrain, and even down to low levels in Scotland at times.

Wednesday looks to be rather cloudy and wet, with a cold front crossing the UK bringing some heavier outbreaks of rain for most through the morning and early afternoon. As the front clears to the east, winds will shift to the north and bring in some sharp or even thundery showers, mainly to northern and western regions. These may be wintry in higher spots. Overnight showers will drift in to the east coast bringing a wintry mix to some. Turning noticeably colder than of late.

Thursday will be brisk but dry, with some chilly winter sunshine in the afternoon. Overnight will become quite cold with most places seeing frost. The end of the week and weekend will see a return to more unsettled weather, with a low pressure system slowly pushing in from the west, bringing clouds and rain to most. The best of any dry weather will be in the east. Wintry showers are likely in Scotland, with snow or sleet present even down to low levels in places. However, snow accumulation at low levels is unlikely.

Monday 21 January—Sunday 27 January

Colder at times with a risk of snow for some

A mixed week of weather appears most likely with wet and breezy conditions giving way to colder but drier weather at times. As the week progresses, there is an increasing likelihood of some sharp night frosts in between any bands of rain. There will also be an increasing risk of a brisk easterly wind developing from mid-week providing a brisk cold snap for much of the country, with a chance of snow showers in the northeast. However, there is still a large degree of uncertainty in this forecast, and cold air may fail to reach as far west as the UK.

High pressure in the Atlantic with a low pressure system in Western Europe are the culprits behind the colder weather. The exact location and strength of the low in Western Europe is the main source of uncertainty for this week, and will depend a great deal on a winter storm leaving the United States on Monday 21st. Overall, a chillier week is expected than recently. However, there is a chance (about a 30% probability) that it remains less cold with somewhat milder and wetter conditions predominating.

Monday 28 January—Sunday 10 February

Colder than average with rain and snow at times

There continues to be the likelihood of some cold and perhaps wintry weather through the end of January and early February. In our previous outlooks we have looked at conditions in the upper atmosphere over the North Pole. At the start of the year, there was a dramatic rise in the temperature within the upper atmosphere over Siberia. Meteorologists call this kind of event a Sudden Stratospheric Warming or SSW. They happen several times per decade and are part of the natural variability of the global climate system.

The recent SSW event combined with other global scale weather patterns are now favoured to bring colder weather to the UK through the end of January and into February. However, indications are that this cold weather is more likely to come in pulses, perhaps with occasionally milder and wetter interludes in-between (unlike the extreme and prolonged cold we experienced during the 'Beast from the East' episode in February/March 2018). Nevertheless, temperatures are likely to be below the seasonal average more often than not with some sharp night frosts and a mixture of bands of rain and snow moving across the UK. However, it will likely be a bit drier than the seasonal average as well, so widespread snowfall does not appear likely.

There are chances of more severe, sustained cold developing (about a 25% probability) - a lesser chance is for much milder and wetter conditions to prevail.

Next Update

We will continue to monitor the duration and severity of the expected colder period of weather, and attempt to pin down the changeability next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:
Cold weather will predominate throughout and Monday will start with a widespread frost. Most places will probably be dry and bright during the day but rain showers are likely in the southeast at first. It will be windy in northwest Scotland, with blustery showers and further snow on hills. The showers may well spread further south and east on Tuesday. These are likely to bring hill snow to many areas, and perhaps some snow at low levels for a time. The timing of this is quite uncertain though. Unsettled and generally cold weather will continue, bringing rain, sleet and sometimes snow. Snow is possible anywhere but more likely over northern and eastern areas and over high ground. Overnight frosts remain likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:
Cold and sometimes very cold weather will still be in place for the extended outlook. It will be changeable though, especially at first, with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts will be common and widespread. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there will be a higher risk than usual of snow at lower levels, even in the south. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. With easterly winds predominating, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest. Short milder and wetter interludes are possible too, most likely in the south, but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

Updated: 03:06 on Wed 16 Jan 2019 GMT


Met Office going for easterlies? A more positive update than I was expecting, anyway.

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