https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46886378 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-16 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning rather chilly and unsettled

Wednesday 16 January—Sunday 20 January

Turning chilly. Wetter over the weekend

The rest of the week looks to be generally unsettled with periods of rain and some dry spells. It will turn quite cold with some wintry precipitation possible in higher terrain, and even down to low levels in Scotland at times.

Wednesday looks to be rather cloudy and wet, with a cold front crossing the UK bringing some heavier outbreaks of rain for most through the morning and early afternoon. As the front clears to the east, winds will shift to the north and bring in some sharp or even thundery showers, mainly to northern and western regions. These may be wintry in higher spots. Overnight showers will drift in to the east coast bringing a wintry mix to some. Turning noticeably colder than of late.

Thursday will be brisk but dry, with some chilly winter sunshine in the afternoon. Overnight will become quite cold with most places seeing frost. The end of the week and weekend will see a return to more unsettled weather, with a low pressure system slowly pushing in from the west, bringing clouds and rain to most. The best of any dry weather will be in the east. Wintry showers are likely in Scotland, with snow or sleet present even down to low levels in places. However, snow accumulation at low levels is unlikely.

Monday 21 January—Sunday 27 January

Colder at times with a risk of snow for some

A mixed week of weather appears most likely with wet and breezy conditions giving way to colder but drier weather at times. As the week progresses, there is an increasing likelihood of some sharp night frosts in between any bands of rain. There will also be an increasing risk of a brisk easterly wind developing from mid-week providing a brisk cold snap for much of the country, with a chance of snow showers in the northeast. However, there is still a large degree of uncertainty in this forecast, and cold air may fail to reach as far west as the UK.

High pressure in the Atlantic with a low pressure system in Western Europe are the culprits behind the colder weather. The exact location and strength of the low in Western Europe is the main source of uncertainty for this week, and will depend a great deal on a winter storm leaving the United States on Monday 21st. Overall, a chillier week is expected than recently. However, there is a chance (about a 30% probability) that it remains less cold with somewhat milder and wetter conditions predominating.

Monday 28 January—Sunday 10 February

Colder than average with rain and snow at times

There continues to be the likelihood of some cold and perhaps wintry weather through the end of January and early February. In our previous outlooks we have looked at conditions in the upper atmosphere over the North Pole. At the start of the year, there was a dramatic rise in the temperature within the upper atmosphere over Siberia. Meteorologists call this kind of event a Sudden Stratospheric Warming or SSW. They happen several times per decade and are part of the natural variability of the global climate system.

The recent SSW event combined with other global scale weather patterns are now favoured to bring colder weather to the UK through the end of January and into February. However, indications are that this cold weather is more likely to come in pulses, perhaps with occasionally milder and wetter interludes in-between (unlike the extreme and prolonged cold we experienced during the 'Beast from the East' episode in February/March 2018). Nevertheless, temperatures are likely to be below the seasonal average more often than not with some sharp night frosts and a mixture of bands of rain and snow moving across the UK. However, it will likely be a bit drier than the seasonal average as well, so widespread snowfall does not appear likely.

There are chances of more severe, sustained cold developing (about a 25% probability) - a lesser chance is for much milder and wetter conditions to prevail.

Next Update

We will continue to monitor the duration and severity of the expected colder period of weather, and attempt to pin down the changeability next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:
Cold weather will predominate throughout and Monday will start with a widespread frost. Most places will probably be dry and bright during the day but rain showers are likely in the southeast at first. It will be windy in northwest Scotland, with blustery showers and further snow on hills. The showers may well spread further south and east on Tuesday. These are likely to bring hill snow to many areas, and perhaps some snow at low levels for a time. The timing of this is quite uncertain though. Unsettled and generally cold weather will continue, bringing rain, sleet and sometimes snow. Snow is possible anywhere but more likely over northern and eastern areas and over high ground. Overnight frosts remain likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:
Cold and sometimes very cold weather will still be in place for the extended outlook. It will be changeable though, especially at first, with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts will be common and widespread. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there will be a higher risk than usual of snow at lower levels, even in the south. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. With easterly winds predominating, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest. Short milder and wetter interludes are possible too, most likely in the south, but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

Updated: 03:06 on Wed 16 Jan 2019 GMT


Met Office going for easterlies? A more positive update than I was expecting, anyway.

Yes decent update there plot thickens. 

Substantial falls on Lewis and the north of the mainland already today

Quite interesting how he explains how the LP systems over the USA will have an impact on our weather next week etc.

I sense you're a glass half full type of person. Or, could it be reverse psychology? What will be will be. Forecasts are firming up now on an extended spell of cold weather.

^^^ nice in-depth explanation there!

Worth posting the Met Office 5-dayer as well as the long-ranger.

Headline:
Plenty of sunshine today. Cold with a widespread overnight frost.

Today:
A widespread frosty start. Sunshine for most, accompanied by hail, sleet and snow showers, mostly in the north and east. Windy at first, with coastal gales in the north and east, though the winds easing from the west later.

Tonight:
Another frosty night for many. Daytime showers easing in the north and east, leaving a risk of icy stretches. Otherwise, turning wet and breezy in the far west later.

Friday:
Thickening cloud, rain and hill snow gradually inching across western parts. Turning windy here too. Meanwhile, largely dry with sunny spells for many central and eastern parts.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Overnight frosts. Cold with outbreaks of rain, sleet, hill snow and even snow to low levels at times over the weekend. Otherwise, wintry showers in the northwest Sunday and Monday.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:
Cold weather will predominate throughout and Monday will start with a widespread frost. Most places will probably be dry and bright during the day but rain showers are likely in the southeast at first. It will be windy in northwest Scotland, with blustery showers and further snow on hills. The showers may well spread further south and east on Tuesday. These are likely to bring hill snow to many areas, and perhaps some snow at low levels for a time. The timing of this is quite uncertain though. Unsettled and generally cold weather will continue, bringing rain, sleet and sometimes snow. Snow is possible anywhere but more likely over northern and eastern areas and over high ground. Overnight frosts remain likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:
Cold and sometimes very cold weather will still be in place for the extended outlook. It will be changeable though, especially at first, with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts will be common and widespread. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there will be a higher risk than usual of snow at lower levels, even in the south. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. With easterly winds predominating, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest. Short milder and wetter interludes are possible too, most likely in the south, but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

Updated: 02:44 on Thu 17 Jan 2019 GMT

Looks like its updated since then Rob and for the better.

It's very unusual to see reference to 'disruptive snow' in the extended outlook.

Looks like an easterly with incursions of milder weather from the south-west at times: Channel lows must be a possibility.

Edit: yes, updated since this morning and the reference to disruptive snow has gone..... 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Confidence is low for Tuesday, but outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow will probably edge southeastwards across the country, perhaps giving the risk of some snow to lower levels on the leading edge. Strong winds and wintry showers will follow, especially around windward coasts and hills and it will be cold, especially so in the wind, which will accentuate how cold it feels. Thereafter, it will remain cold and often changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, perhaps with an increased chance of snow to low levels in the north and northwest, but with the potential elsewhere at times too. Some drier and brighter interludes are possible, bringing overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe in any longer clear spells.

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

Cold and sometimes very cold weather will continue as we head through the first half of February. It is likely to remain changeable too, especially at first, bringing strong winds and spells of rain which will turn to snow at times. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there is a greater risk to lower levels too with the cold air in place. Some drier and brighter periods are possible as well, perhaps becoming focused across the northwest with time. Occasional milder and wetter interludes may intersperse the generally cold conditions, these most likely in the south but also posing a more significant risk of snow and ice.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

If the ECMs easterly wins out this forecast will get much colder still not bad.

Would be more interesting if he explained what influences the LP systems over the US, and then what influences the influences. 

Neither of the BBC nor MetO updates are as good as I'd hoped, bother talking about predominantly rain and hill snow, with the possibility of snow to lower levels only at times.

The met office have updated the forecast since its issue

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow for many areas on Tuesday with a chance of snow to low levels but the details of this are currently uncertain. Strong winds are also possible in the southwest. Showery conditions will follow although some brighter weather is also possible later in the week. Thereafter, remaining cold and possibly turning very cold, accentuated by brisk winds which will last through until the end of January. Frontal zones may arrive from the northwest at times bringing spells of rain, sleet and snow. However, some drier and brighter interludes are still likely and these will bring overnight frosts, which will be widespread and locally severe, especially in any longer clear spells.

They almost always do at this range.

He mentioned a pulse of energy crossing the mountains from the Pacific and that  interacting with the very cold Arctic plunge and warmer air from the Gulf providing the energy for rapid development of a LP system which would deliver a major winter storm to the east coast.  

 Of course the question is what happens if you keep going backwards. Do you end up where you started? Not knocking the fella at all. It's just the "upstream" discussion could equally be termed "downstream".

That is another upgrade Gav, fast moving situation now, getting text upgrades daily - long may it continue

Next week

Cold
Risk of snow
Frosty nights
Icy patches

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46913592

Sounds good.

INTO NEXT WEEK

Staying cold

Chance of sleet and snow

Easterly winds developing

latest BBC forecast this morning