Positioning of that low seems absent on some runs!

This is the low for Tuesday that may bring more prolonged sleet or snow for the south on Tuesday @ T+96: - As you can see some runs have charts that show that low on Tuesday @ 12z T+96.

ICON:

UKMO:

GEM:

Parallel:

Op:

Control:

ECM:

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As you can see the ICON, UKMO & Parallel has the low further north! 

Quick flick through this evening and it looks like more of the same, pretty cool into the reliable then back to the will it won’t it debate in FI.

Major systems aside, plenty of interest for some with disturbances and troughs early next week:

We know the models have flipping all over the place recently. The model verification stats bear this out.

The following charts are all for day 10 (T240)

If we look at the 0z run we see that the GFS operational is performing very poorly over the past 30 days (especially from 6-10 Jan)

500mb heights https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

GFS is way behind the parallel and only just ahead of GEM

Sea level pressure (SLP) https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Even worse. The GFS is only ahead of CFS on this one

850hPa temperatures https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_T_P850_G2NHX.png

For this parameter the GFS is aligned with the parallel run and ahead of GEM

So the message here is that the 0z GFS operational is really poor at the moment on heights but less so on temperature

If we the look at the 12z run we see something quite different

500mb heights https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

GFS operational is ahead of all the other runs including ECM

SLP https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

GFS operational still doing well but slightly behind the ECM here

850hPa https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_T_P850_G2NHX.png

Both GFS runs are similar, ahead of GEM and well behind ECM

So quite odd really. It seems the GFS 0z is doing much worse than the 12z on average over the last 30 days. Why would that be when it is the same model with presumably the same methodology on each run.

We can look at the stats for the 4 GFS runs. When I have done this before they are usually almost identical. But not at the moment which is weird.

500mb heights https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Huge differences between the runs. 12z is by far the best. 06z the worst. Very odd

SLP https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

Same patterns as for the heights

850hPa temperature https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_T_P500_G2NHX.png

Much greater consistency here.

So the conclusion is that if you are looking at 850 temperatures there is little to choose between the 4 GFS runs. But if you are looking at heights and SLP then the GFS12z is by far the most reliable (on average of course - day to day there are big differences and any of the runs could be performing best).

That would have been in May.  Winter certainly was not over by May 8th that month, we had heavy snow showers with temporary cover in Bristol.

Icon first out of the blocks and again showing two snow events for the south next week. The 18z run very different to the 12z. Have not posted much last couple of days due to the inconsistencies of the models. Would not be at all surprised to see significant changes in the t120 - t168 range with regards to the deepening low. Could quite easily see this disrupting and weakening more keeping us in a cold pattern with further snow chances.
I see met are becoming more bullish about very cold east/ north easterlies as we go into second week of Feb and beyond.

Still in development but the snow row page now has basic graphing capabilities. Just click on the location to view the snow row history.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx

O/T but related - the 21:55 wasn't any great shakes

"potential" for some real disruptive snow across England and Wales but N Miller really had no clue where the LP would go

After than temps rising through the week.

WOW!! Its been a great winter , one I'd rather forget 

True- it certainly has not been pushed back any further as has happened a few times already this season.

One would think that what track the LP concerned ultimately takes will be crucial in determining what happens next, i.e whether it stays cold or whether there is another milder interlude like the current one.

IMO, what happens from late next week going forwards is still very much up in the air.

The 18z is already so different to the 12z and has LP's running into the Bay of Biscay as per the Met update 

Controversial this, but I honestly think these TV “look ahead” forecasts are given way too much airtime in here. 

We probably check the model output in a more anal way than they do. 

BBC Weather also seem a bit less on the ball now the MetO aren’t their provider. 

As for the 18z GFS - I maintain my thought that somewhere next week is going to get a fair bit of snow. Just not sure where at this stage. 

Tuesday and Wednesday are the days to watch. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_105_1.png

Just where we want the LP to at the end of the week, though its not the Beebs favoured position

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=165&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

You'd bank that 

Ties in with the Bay of Biscay comment from the Met

Indeed. It’s nice and in the “right” direction but of limited value in isolation.

More wintery guff from GFS on the 18z- I don’t believe anything past 96 hours atm

Similar to ICON and as I said ties in with where the Met are thinking the LP's will track so its not alone 

You don't believe anything past 6 hours Jas 

😂😂

That said,,,,, 6 hours is an awful long time in model land. your right Goon, I’m going back to the “looking out of the window nowcast” after consulting my cat gut and dried seaweed. I’m sure I could come up with equally as good fantasy winter charts in FI 😂👍