The Weather Outlook

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ballamar
26 January 2019 08:17:07

Clearly quite a bit of uncertainty this morning, I think most of us were expecting to wake up to see that the other models had followed the ECM milder solution of recent runs.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

i think the Met consistency with this one would have said otherwise 

stophe
26 January 2019 08:22:20

The fairly cold outlook, with marginal snow chances, increased with latitude and altitude continues within the reliable, with signs of a slight warming into February.  It would be ironic indeed if the FI signs were correct for once this winter, which has gotten started this week, with frosts and snow.  There was 7cms on the ground on the northern outskirts of Dover on Wednesday morning, some of which which was still in evidence yesterday afternoon.

It will be a very interesting week, tracks of lows will be critical and forecasting a nightmare.  I really enjoy these nowcast situations, a 3 hour look ahead.

Meanwhile The ICON looks interesting a week away - theres a chance of heavy marginal wet disruptive snow, great fun!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

This mornings icon run is just like what the metoffice 30 of jan-8 feb outlook says "low pressure systems take a more southerly track towards Biscay"

Ally Pally Snowman
26 January 2019 08:30:44

ECM means better than the Op with the midweek low taking a more southerly track and as a result lower 850s. Somewhere could get a huge snow event Midlands, North England favoured is my punt.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
26 January 2019 08:33:18

ECM means better than the Op with the midweek low taking a more southerly track and as a result lower 850s. Somewhere could get a huge snow event Midlands, North England favoured is my punt.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Way too early (but JFF) Id favour south Midlands, Gooner-ville.  "North of the M4" is probably a phase that will irritate many in the coming week

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Downpour
26 January 2019 09:09:42

 

Way too early (but JFF) Id favour south Midlands, Gooner-ville.  "North of the M4" is probably a phase that will irritate many in the coming week

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

North of the M4, south of Jacko’s house, is the form horse.

Chingford

London E4

147ft

roadrunnerajn
26 January 2019 09:12:17
I’ll need the phrase “north of France” for snow IMBY this week....😒
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Bugglesgate
26 January 2019 09:31:36

 

Way too early (but JFF) Id favour south Midlands, Gooner-ville.  "North of the M4" is probably a phase that will irritate many in the coming week

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

You may scoff but I live south of the M4 and "The Day Job" is north of the M4 (South Oxfordshire) .  It's amazing how often I leave home snow free and have considerable cover by the time I get over the downs to the north of the M4. 

Chris (It,its)

Between Newbury and Basingstoke

"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"

Whether Idle
26 January 2019 09:34:18

 

 

You may scoff but I live south of the M4 and "The Day Job" is north of the M4 (South Oxfordshire) .  It's amazing how often I leave home snow free and have considerable cover by the time I get over the downs to the north of the M4. 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Im not scoffing, Im laughing  as its potentially frustrating

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Solar Cycles
26 January 2019 09:47:55
I think those across the Midlands and southwards could hit the jackpot as it appears any corrections for Tuesdays little feature is for it to be further south.
ballamar
26 January 2019 09:52:14
Look out Midlands for later Tuesday and Wednesday- could be very snowy
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2019 10:00:09

I think those across the Midlands and southwards could hit the jackpot as it appears any corrections for Tuesdays little feature is for it to be further south.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Aren't they always, though?

Remember the  'slider' low from Dec. 2017? That was initially progged to be potentially quite significant for our area but then the dreaded 'corrections' started and they always seemed to be pregressively further south, hardlly any nudging it back north again.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

nsrobins
26 January 2019 10:00:47
Tuesday’s potential is just that. So many options in timing, track and intensity across the models from shallow wave Tues am to deep Biscay low Weds pm that a forecast at this range is ill-advised. Experience suggests a mostly ‘nothing’ scenario for southern areas but there’s a chance of something more memorable.

Once the low starts forming the high-res output will be able to offer more detail.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Retron
26 January 2019 10:05:30
For the first time this winter, the 10th percentile shows some snow [for London, end of next week ECM ensembles]

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow 

Or, in other words, over 90% of the ensemble members have snow on the ground by next Thursday/Friday, even if it's just a dusting.

Leysdown, north Kent
Solar Cycles
26 January 2019 10:07:11

 

Aren't they always, though?

Remember the  'slider' low from Dec. 2017? That was initially progged to be potentially quite significant for our area but then the dreaded 'corrections' started and they always seemed to be pregressively further south, hardlly any nudging it back north again.

Originally Posted by: Col 

There is that possibility that it could end up further south thus missing the U.K. altogether.

tallyho_83
26 January 2019 10:07:30

Re that low - marginal for the south on Tuesday:

Looks like mostly rain for France anyway!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Joe Bloggs
26 January 2019 10:09:18

Blimey. Somewhere could be in a for a pasting next week. 

This would come on top of the Irish Sea convection from Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday.

My hunch is the Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_2.png

 

Solar Cycles
26 January 2019 10:12:18

Blimey. Somewhere could be in a for a pasting next week. 

This would come on top of the Irish Sea convection from Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday.

My hunch is the Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_2.png

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

My hunch/dream is IMBY.😎

Joe Bloggs
26 January 2019 10:15:01

My hunch/dream is IMBY.😎

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

These events never deliver for our patch. 99% of the time is a Midlands/south event. 

Our best bet is convection off the Irish Sea Tuesday/Tuesday night and into Wednesday - at the moment the models show a lot of it with sub zero 2m temps and dewpoints (away from the coast) 

Solar Cycles
26 January 2019 10:17:52

 

These events never deliver for our patch. 99% of the time is a Midlands/south event. 

Our best bet is convection off the Irish Sea Tuesday/Tuesday night and into Wednesday - at the moment the models show a lot of it with sub zero 2m temps and dewpoints (away from the coast) 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Dreamkiller. 😂😂

soperman
26 January 2019 10:19:04

 

 

North of the M4, south of Jacko’s house, is the form horse.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Yep. Chilts will get buried if feature far enough North.

No excitement untl Monday from me

Happily living by the sea in Brixham......but sad to leave the snowy Chiltern Hills after 35 years!
Joe Bloggs
26 January 2019 10:19:19

Dreamkiller. 😂😂

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

You never know. :D 

In frontal events a SE’ly wind is always a killer for this part of the region anyway - you may do better.

White Meadows
26 January 2019 10:21:40
There has been for a few days now a fairly consistent (in an inconsistent manner) signal for some kind of major disturbance quickly running south, over Ireland/ to our west and into western France before changing track east. This is progged for Saturday 2nd with reasonably clarity.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Could be a major snow event somewhere anywhere from Cumbria to Kent ...details out of the question at this stage:

Joe Bloggs
26 January 2019 10:22:51

I’ve gone through some of the parameters with a fine tooth comb, and it does look cold enough for a fair few Doc.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_90_43.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_90_37.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_90_38.png

Certainly the risk of rain near Irish Sea coasts. 

Karl Guille
26 January 2019 10:28:16

While the general theme remains the same for most with a cold but not severe cold period on the way I'm still looking for that elusive easterly.  Despite this, things still looking okay as we head into next weekend on the 6z!

 

St. Sampson

Guernsey

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