LOL. I agree with much of this. I think our preferences will always influence our posts - we’re not professionals after all. 

Tonight does seem to be especially moany and melodramatic though. Maybe I’m in a better mood because it might (just might) snow a bit here tomorrow. 

Yes the ENS mean looks pretty solid upto 10, and that said any potential change is way out in FI- and just for balance nothing has seemed to come to fruition from that far out recently so who knows. If we could just get some of those lows digging further south we might get some very interesting developments, again though it’s all ifs and buts. The frustration continues. 

Absolutely right, the charts show mild and changeable weather.

Except that chart is for the west coast of Sardinia...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Given that this chart is for 9 days ahead, we can hardly be sure of it verifying as shown, especially after all that has happened in the model output in recent days.

Even if things do pan out as that chart indicates, it doesn't exactly suggest mild zonality to me, at least as far as northern areas would be concerned.

You see tonight's ECM and then read what our very own Met Office has to say:

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

IMO, what the ECM 12z shows ties in with the MetO's thoughts pretty well.

Martin

Cherry picking a solitary chart from Day 9 is nonsense.  You know and I know and everyone else here knows that it looked different 12 hours ago and will look different again in 12 hours.

The ensemble mean for day 10 shows a split polar vortex, troughs over the NE side of North America and British Isles/North Sea and a weak ridge in mid-Atlantic.  Hardly a pattern that signals zonality and certainly not mild. Undoubtedly that will also change but it makes for a strong argument against your suggestion.

And their outlook for the two weeks after that suggests that if anything they expect it then to become colder still. They could of course be wrong, and their record for their recent extended outlooks hasn't been great, but even so I'd give more weight to them than to the prophets of doom.

 Remaining cold for most? with widespread frosts?

What with these sort of set up???

This is a 'new low' even by the ECM's standard it's at an all time low a new low'

Are you really suggesting that the Met Office would have taken into consideration an operational chart at day 9 unrepresentative of its ensembles in a forecast written hours before the chart appeared?

Well when you put it like that it seems unlikely 

No I am suggesting that the ECM is totally unrepresentative of the Met Office 10 day forecast...i mean it hardly looks frosty and cold in the 12z run ..!?

We have every right to be disappointed with the easterly fail! - Sure we will get there! - bUT THIS will be another January without an easterly! I remember reading a thread on here once 'the death of the mid-winter easterly remains a mystery!'. 

What I hope and anticipate is that LP at 240 sinks south eastwards and allows that HP over Russia to retogress westwards so we can bring the air in from the east and thus allow heights to build over Greenland for much needed HLB! - Which is what all longer range models had forecast and what we have all been waiting for all winter or at least since the SSW!

CFS signal for next month still on the cooler side of average for northern areas, but a downgrade somewhat for the uk and Western Europe generally.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

The continuation of cold being ‘squeezed’ north makes me fear another winter fades without snow cover for the majority 😞

Well said that man! Backed up by good hard facts, I am not far from charlwood at all and it did indeed cool off very quickly this evening.....enough for some back edge snow later? Maybe....

IMBY post alert...

I like ICON 18z:

Looking at that on TWO and using the snow depth charts you can see a splodge growing over northern England as that LP rolls in and sinks south....

As in this one!

21:55 looked interesting for next week 

With above average temperatures for Iceland shown on that map - means it would suggest an easterly if northerly then Iceland would see below ave temps for Feb etc. 

Cold for most what? Ptarmigans on top of a Cairngorm? The Met Office long-rangers have been complete works of fiction since mid-December.

It's nice some have still got a sense of humour . Sometimes people think my posts are serious when I'm just trying to keep a level playing field with a bit of irony/sarcasm/balance/facts ! 

18z GFS..

So tomorrow we’re looking at a snowy evening rush hour across Western Scotland and NW England.

Saturday we have a troublesome little disturbance pushing through central parts - a real snow risk here with cold uppers.

By Tuesday next week another Arctic NW’ly - lots to keep an eye on.