Absolutely right. 

yes cool/ cold zonality offers little for lowland England and Wales though I do suspect the Northern contingent will be licking their lips. 

NAO as expected going the wrong way

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/archives/2019011412/180-7UK.GIF? 

It appears that they will be a little colder than that when the time comes. It often goes in the milder direction but not always and you cannot conclude that it will happen as a general. It hasn’t in this case and may not in the next. Each situation needs to be viewed with the acceptance that the situation may change as the time approaches, but how that changes is not set in stone nor the same for each scenario.

Unsurprisingly that is good representation of the GFS output.

The 12z ECM maintains the colder than average unsettled outlook so far in the run with the milder blip on Friday. Good agreements on the general pattern to day 6 now but again whether it is cold enough for widespread wintry weather is a different matter. Good for NW locations, especially with elevation.

Partially right

I think someone referenced Jan 2015 for a rain to snow event coming down from the North West - that wasn't dissimilar to the current set up (I think, memory may well be failing me) and delivered snow to Kent (and a decent amount too!).  I do agree that GFS will overegg snow in this type of setup although worth mentioning it may just be modelling sleet or wet snow rather than proper falling and settling stuff.

It's always going to be touch and go for snow down here in an unsettled flow with LPs rolling down from the North but it can and does happen. Not unheard of for us to get snow showers on a NW'ly either but takes a bit of doing usually.

Back at what the models are showing and it's copy and paste for the GFS ens - generally chilly or cold after the milder blip with possibility of falling snow just about anywhere at times. There's enough mild sectors in the individual ens to suggest that your expected roadblocks may well materialise so that the below average to the end line becomes more snakelike than is shown.

Looking at the GFS la la land postage stamps and there's a bit more northern blocking set ups evident but a cluster of more traditionally zonal stuff too so no real clues as likely weather. I'd favour something similar to what we have now, with a low chance of HP being drawn to somewhere helpful, with the lowest likelihood reserved for a lengthy (5+ days) normal zonal spell (rather than the chilly/cold set up we have now). That's more because I like cold and tend to optimistic than anything though so others may well have the balance arranged differently!

I accept that Doc, but I know from experience that if this comes to pass -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif

Then temps will be more like 4-5 in central areas than this -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19817.gif

With the exception of the blip on Fri/Saturday the mean is below the long term average throughout the run?

Here are the 850s to go with it.  To me, its more of the same gruel, with the prospect of a piece of cardboard perhaps with some low budget jam smeared on it promised in 10 days time.  We are stuck in a SSW induced rut of a trough of low pressure. We are frustratingly the right side of the jet, but in the wrong place in relation to its curvature to import the cold north easters that are required to bring lowland snow. 

Things may change in February, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Great ECM run for the North/North West, a generally wintry outlook 

God awful ECM rolling out. The GFS is the best of the set-up, the ECM shows the ACTUAL set-up.

Pathetic. This is more frustrating than watching Theresa May

I give up on this winter!

Yes ECM was the game changer on Friday and this may signal another shift in the METO text, pressure rising over Iberia into France as the forcing continues from the PV.

It does indeed show the actual set up - but only at T+0

After that it's all just a prediction based on the data fed into the computer model and the programming, like every other model.

Based on the ECM 12z the reality of those charts is:

Days 1 & 2 - cold

Day 3  - cold in the east, less cold to the west

Day 4 -  average to just above 

Day 5 - average in the east, cold to the west

Day 6 - cold

Day 7 - below average

Day 8 - cold

I thought we had established that T+96 was about the limit at the moment, perhaps T+120.  On that basis it's pretty much in line with recent output.

I see ECM is back on the Dominoes gig