The Weather Outlook

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David M Porter
29 December 2018 19:05:39

 

Yes the cold has been put back and in the nearer term they remain bullish about a zonal second week of January.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I have to say that after seeing the last few ECM op runs (including this evening's 12z) plus the GFS 12z, I am less convinced now about a return of the atlantic as I was a couple or so day ago. It could be that ECM is barking up the wrong tree, but we shall see.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
29 December 2018 19:19:18

Could well be February before we see the effects of the SSW, one thing to note the cold keeps getting deferred longer. First it was by the end of this month ( granted that was a small chance ) then as we approach the middle of the January now the backend.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

If the HP that is indicated to take charge of our weather next week does end up sticking around for longer as ECM is indicating and the GFS 12z tonight also, it could act as a quicker route to a cold spell. As I said to Ian, given the trend in the last few ECM op runs, I am not less convinced about a return of the atlantic as I was previously and I do wonder if the HP could end up lasting for longer than the models, especially GFS, think will be the case.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

tallyho_83
30 December 2018 01:29:59
Love this for Jan & Feb 2019: - lameteo.org - (seasonal)

Looking very cold dry and blocked for next two months if this comes about!? - Well January is only days away!!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
30 December 2018 09:20:06

Love this for Jan & Feb 2019: - lameteo.org - (seasonal)
Looking very cold dry and blocked for next two months if this comes about!? - Well January is only days away!!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Theyvhad">https://youtu.be/_ixBOg9nPMs

 They had December down for a wintry nirvana last month so I wouldn’t take much notice of them.

Gavin D
30 December 2018 11:43:34

Love this for Jan & Feb 2019: - lameteo.org - (seasonal)
Looking very cold dry and blocked for next two months if this comes about!? - Well January is only days away!!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

">https://youtu.be/_ixBOg9nPMs

Another one to add to the bin amongst the many others who went for a cold December...

Gavin D
30 December 2018 13:01:12
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2019 to Sunday 13 Jan 2019:

Friday will be largely dry and cold with sunny spells for most places, however some fog or freezing fog patches may be slow to clear. The far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Shropshire
30 December 2018 13:03:59

Thanks Gav, METO still bullish about zonality returning in just 8 days or so.

 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
David M Porter
30 December 2018 15:19:40

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2019 to Sunday 13 Jan 2019:

Friday will be largely dry and cold with sunny spells for most places, however some fog or freezing fog patches may be slow to clear. The far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The point I would add here is that while the MetO still seem confident about a return to an unsettled pattern, it doesn't sound as though the pattern they are expecting is one of mild zonality. The fact they mention the possibility of snow across the hills and possibly down to low levels at times in northern areas does not indicate zonality of the mild form to me.

I think the best way of summing up this forecast in terms of temperature is probably average temps for a while with a cold spell possibly following.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Joe Bloggs
30 December 2018 23:31:35

Hi all

I watched Britain’s Wildest Weather 2018 on Channel 4 tonight. 

Yes these documentaries are normally a bit sh*t, and this one was no exception, but there is some genueinly impressive footage from the Beast from the East in March 2018, it really brings home just how severe and notable that spell actually was, especially some of the scenes in East Cumbria. 

Worth a watch on Catch up. 

Gavin D
31 December 2018 12:23:38
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E 

Phil G
31 December 2018 12:36:03

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E

may be, may be, perhaps, may be, are possible, with a risk, perhaps, probably.

likely, possible, possible, likelihood, risk, may then, possible.

Whoever constructs these certainly cover themselves! Sounds like an article from the anti Brexit brigade.

When the uncertainty in the timeframe is there, that's where these commentaries should stop, but know they are "probably" obliged to come up with something.

Gavin D
Rob K
31 December 2018 12:54:39
“Meanwhile, with fears another “Beast from the East” is on its way, Coral make it odds on at 4-5 that this winter goes on to be the coldest on record.”

Dear Mr Coral, will you lay me the other side of that bet, please? I’ll even take 4-5 that it won’t – can’t say fairer than that!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Phil G
31 December 2018 13:01:02

Did this really go out with a date of 31st December 2019? 

Suppose that covers them!

David M Porter
31 December 2018 13:48:20

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Pretty much the same as they have been saying for several days now.

 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Shropshire
31 December 2018 13:49:53

METO have shunted the unsettled conditions for early next week to the end of next week.

 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Solar Cycles
31 December 2018 16:27:35

METO have shunted the unsettled conditions for early next week to the end of next week.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Maybe we're all underestimating our block and this could be as good as it gets for blocking this winter with heights never setting up in a favourable locale for Blighty but for those East of us it could be a wintry nirvana.

Stuee
31 December 2018 17:02:03
Rare post from me.

Been model watching for a few years and always gob smacked that stellar charts at T+384 almost always get replaced by rubbish by T+180. Never happens the other way around! Can anyone explain? Are they somehow biased towards cold forecasts at long range?

As for this year, I gauge it by snow in Aviemore. They have had virtually none, and there is no sign either.

tallyho_83
31 December 2018 17:12:00

“Meanwhile, with fears another “Beast from the East” is on its way, Coral make it odds on at 4-5 that this winter goes on to be the coldest on record.”

Dear Mr Coral, will you lay me the other side of that bet, please? I’ll even take 4-5 that it won’t – can’t say fairer than that!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yeah right? After the warmest or mildest December since 2015?? I am keen to see what Decembers CET comes out at?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gooner
31 December 2018 18:36:44

Maybe we're all underestimating our block and this could be as good as it gets for blocking this winter with heights never setting up in a favourable locale for Blighty but for those East of us it could be a wintry nirvana.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I suggested that a week ago on the other side and was quickly shot down , too be honest it really wouldn't surprise me if this was it


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
31 December 2018 18:59:48

Hi all

I watched Britain’s Wildest Weather 2018 on Channel 4 tonight. 

Yes these documentaries are normally a bit sh*t, and this one was no exception, but there is some genueinly impressive footage from the Beast from the East in March 2018, it really brings home just how severe and notable that spell actually was, especially some of the scenes in East Cumbria. 

Worth a watch on Catch up. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Just put it on


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
01 January 2019 11:48:33
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

The second week of the the New Year starts mainly settled. Most places look to be dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. By the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions, particularly in the north. There may be periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods in between. There is a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. It will be rather cold to start, but temperatures will probably recover closer to average with some milder interludes.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with perhaps heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2019-01-01 

marting
01 January 2019 13:57:07
Yep, much colder is good for me. Overall no real change today.

Martin


Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Rob K
01 January 2019 15:37:12
LOL, I was getting a little excited there for a moment looking at the predicted maxes for the end of the period. See if you can spot the mistake!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/6058560 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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