The Weather Outlook

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sizzle
01 January 2019 19:46:44

here is terry scholeys month head. I HIGHLY RATE this guy. https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

pdiddy
01 January 2019 19:47:56

Programme called SNOW about 1962-1963 on TV right now! Virgin channel 445

Darren S
01 January 2019 21:06:10

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Gavin D
02 January 2019 12:38:23
Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

Most places are likely to stay dry but rather cloudy through next week. The cloudiest and mildest weather is likely to be in the northwest, where it will be cloudy enough for some drizzle over the hills, and sometimes rather windy. In the south, winds will stay light and there is a greater chance of sunny spells, but also a greater likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Where fog does form, it may be slow to clear during the day. By the end of the week a change to wetter and windier weather is likely, particularly in the north. There is a risk of snow on hills in the north, and perhaps to lower levels at times too. In the south, night frost and fog will become less likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Solar Cycles
02 January 2019 12:40:09
Doubts creeping in. 🤭
Tim A
02 January 2019 12:46:53
If it was my day to write the Met Office update and i had been reading tabloid headlines and even some weather forum/Facebook hype i might also add ' the cold spell is by no means certain.'

Anyone sensible should know that's always been the case. Their updates are always written with uncertainty but they have really spelled it out this time.


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

David M Porter
02 January 2019 14:40:57

What I think everyone should remember is that a cold spell later this month has never been a given at any time. My view is, and has been for a few weeks now, that developments for later in January are and will remain shrouded in much uncertainty until the models have properl factored in what, if any, effects the SSW currently taking place has on the synoptic set-up.

I think most people know that forecasting more than a few days ahead is challenging at the best of times given the highly variable nature of the British weather, but the SSW will make things even more tricky I reckon.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
02 January 2019 14:46:28
The Met outlook certainly doesn't show a "clean" transition to cold as a few of the models (eg GFSP) have been showing, it suggests we will have to endure a week or two of unsettled and mild (in the south) conditions before any cold spell.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
02 January 2019 15:30:36

Yes has to be said that's a disappointing update. Just as the output was getting better as well.  It wouldn't surprise me though if it changes dramatically to a colder outlook soon as all the ingredients are there.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
02 January 2019 17:58:53

The met office 10 day trend is back after it's Christmas break

Next 10 days

High pressure
Dry, light winds
Often cloudy

Video ends with some signs the weather could change around mid-month but doesn't go any further 

squish
03 January 2019 08:50:58
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-180.png?03-00 

Today’s ICON


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
tallyho_83
03 January 2019 11:08:18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/iconnh-0-180.png?03-00

Today’s ICON

Originally Posted by: squish 

Send me a link to that please as I can only get up to +120 on wetterzentrale

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ico&var=1&run=6&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
03 January 2019 11:26:46

Worth A read: - Nice to see the SW having a '65 to 70% chance' of snow:

If this is related to the SSW it does sound around about right - the SSW was between 24th and 27th December and it usually takes a few weeks for it to have an impact on our weather patterns thus 2-3 weeks on from that is around or just after mid January which is when you would start to see the Tropospheric response to the SSW. - This certainly was the case back in February 2-3 WEEKS after the SSW and this lasted well into March.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-triple-polar-13806371

 

Widespread snowfall is expected later in January (Image: Netweather)


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
03 January 2019 11:32:37
"Triple polar vortex".... "radiation fog"... no attempt to explain or educate, just using scary sounding words to add drama. Trash journalism of the worst kind.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
03 January 2019 11:42:51

 

Send me a link to that please as I can only get up to +120 on wetterzentrale

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ico&var=1&run=6&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

The high res ICON only goes out to t+120 and can be viewed on TWO here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx

The lower res Global model goes out to t+180. I may add in some charts from it. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

marco 79
03 January 2019 11:47:22
Usual "Clickbait" crap...however the ads at the bottom of the link i find intriguing...especially the one on 'how to insulate your home with Lidl clingfilm'
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Gavin D
03 January 2019 12:17:54
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

A cold north to northwesterly flow is likely to dominate early next week, with showers or perhaps more organised rain at times, mainly affecting northern and eastern areas, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills. Generally, bright, cold and breezy with the risk of gales in the east. More settled further south, with probably cloudier and milder conditions towards the west, slowly edging east across the UK. Towards the end of next week, it looks like staying predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frosts and fog. The most benign weather is likely to last for longest across the south, with very little rainfall expected. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times. A possible transition to changeable conditions by mid-January.

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2019 to Friday 1 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Rob K
03 January 2019 12:45:51
I see the milder wet and windy interludes have gone from "remaining possible" to "likely".
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Solar Cycles
03 January 2019 14:24:21

I see the milder wet and windy interludes have gone from "remaining possible" to "likely".

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The damp  squib seems to becoming more prominent with these updates with each one just that little bit worse than the other. The uncertainties are obviously higher than normal but I’d rather they were pumping out positive messages in much colder being the likely outcome to be honest.

David M Porter
03 January 2019 16:18:43

I see the milder wet and windy interludes have gone from "remaining possible" to "likely".

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

While noting the points made above, the fact that the MetO are still saying "interludes" or milder & wet and windy weather suggests to me anyway that even of there are any occurences of such weather in late January, they don't expect them to last for long.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
03 January 2019 20:45:44
A slightly different source (Chamonix weather centre) below. For the central Europe expecting the onslaught of the Atlantic from the 17th January following a cold spell next week:

http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php 


Kingston Upon Thames
Gooner
03 January 2019 22:05:14

21:55 forecast not inspiring 

A bit chilly but nothing great and too exciting 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



tallyho_83
04 January 2019 01:04:42

21:55 forecast not inspiring 

A bit chilly but nothing great and too exciting 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I saw that yet all models esp the OP have now gone for a north easterly mid week next week with potential snow/wintry showers for the east coast but wasn't mentioned in BBC forecast!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

doctormog
04 January 2019 07:20:32

 

I saw that yet all models esp the OP have now gone for a north easterly mid week next week with potential snow/wintry showers for the east coast but wasn't mentioned in BBC forecast!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I‘m not sure it is noteworthy enough to merit a mention at this range, in terms of intensity, longevity or indeed geography. Some wintry showers may possibly affect some eastern parts on Tuesday and this may be shown on forecasts over the weekend but it is a brief affair before anticyclonic conditions return and things stand.

FWIW our local Met Office forecast is for “some wintry showers” on Tuesday, which is essentially what the models show.


Gavin D
04 January 2019 09:04:35

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

  • Huge uncertainty
  • Risk of severe cold from mid-month
  • Longevity unclear

Full forecast for subscribers here: https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/04/john-hammond-month-ahead-beast-returns/

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