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YES but if you go back to Jan - March 2018 from December 2017 - the Met Forecast mild and we all know Feb and March turned out blocked and colder after the SSW. tHIS Year we are expecting one in 2 weeks time. SO here's to some cold and blocked weather for January/?
Maybe but don’t get your hopes up just yet.
Anyway, what you’ve said isn’t relevant to your apparent misinterpretation of those charts, which was my point. You’re not the first person to misread an anomaly chart.
Maybe but don’t get your hopes up just yet.Anyway, what you’ve said isn’t relevant to your apparent misinterpretation of those charts, which was my point. You’re not the first person to misread an anomaly chart.
What do you make of this then from the Met Office and their updated ensemble mean anomaly? They have (if anything) strengthened the block since last months update. It's quite a strong signal for northern Blocking.
Southerly tracking lows me thinks and bitterly cold easterly winds at times!?
2-4 months:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean
3- 5 Months
Now look at the Temperature mean:
2 - 4 Months
3 - 5 Months:
Indeed, I remember someone with a rather large ego doing just the same several years ago - and boy, did they sulk when that was explained to them. Anyway, those charts are just raw GLOSEA output - one of a large pot of charts. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:
http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/06/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_1104.png
To me, that'd suggest lows tracking much further south than normal.
The contingency planners' forecast, which combines GLOSEA, the ECM and others, shows a marked cold signal for December-January-Fenruary. Now that is unusual in that product, which normally shows a milder than average winter period.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf
Indeed, I remember someone with a rather large ego doing just the same several years ago - and boy, did they sulk when that was explained to them. Anyway, those charts are just raw GLOSEA output - one of a large pot of charts. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/06/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_1104.pngTo me, that'd suggest lows tracking much further south than normal.The contingency planners' forecast, which combines GLOSEA, the ECM and others, shows a marked cold signal for December-January-Fenruary. Now that is unusual in that product, which normally shows a milder than average winter period.https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf
Bit surprised they say that we are in for a moderate El Nino this winter? I thought we were struggling to get a weak one!?
And how often do we get this forecast from the MET OFFICE?
"For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period"
"Tis the season for jam tomorrow, tra la la la la la la la la la"
Still some hope for the Xmas period
Let's bank the GFS Parallel 0Z run for Xmas day.
If you like cold rain!!
very different
12z( GFS ) gives us something new and very acceptable