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Arcus
14 September 2018 17:40:00


 


Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yes, post-tropical transition expected by 12z Sunday when Ex-Helene will be north of the Azores according to MetO faxes.


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2018 18:41:29


 


Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Honest, it did when I posted it. At that stage NHC was prepared to give its position as a storm through to mid-afternoon Tuesday and then retrenched to mid Monday. Now the link only shows it as far as Monday morning! 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Bertwhistle
14 September 2018 18:45:38


 


Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


That is the trouble with posting links to satisfy the copyright issues on posting an image; they update.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gusty
15 September 2018 07:57:45

I've just carried out my detailed look at the models. A few things stand out.



  1. Ex Helene's approach towards Ireland on Monday.

  2. An incredibly warm night Mon/Tues thanks to tropical air

  3. The sharpness of the cold front on Thursday as it moves SE'wards.


Lots to keep an eye on. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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idj20
15 September 2018 09:30:26


I've just carried out my detailed look at the models. A few things stand out.



  1. Ex Helene's approach towards Ireland on Monday.

  2. An incredibly warm night Mon/Tues thanks to tropical air

  3. The sharpness of the cold front on Thursday as it moves SE'wards.


Lots to keep an eye on. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes, noticed the warm uppers (16 C at 850 hpa over Kent) associated with ex-Helen running through Scotland is going to prevent temperatures from falling any lower than 19 C at Midnight on Monday night here at this end of our beloved county. While we'll also be missing out on the rain, it'll still be quite windy.

#blowtorch #summerhangingonbyitsfingernails


 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
15 September 2018 17:39:07


 


Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


It never did - it was always a white "extra-tropical" storm by the time it reached the British Isles.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/HELENE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind


(The NHC has an excellent archive of every forecast graphic of every storm).


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 September 2018 20:40:06


 


It never did - it was always a white "extra-tropical" storm by the time it reached the British Isles.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/HELENE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind


(The NHC has an excellent archive of every forecast graphic of every storm).


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Thanks for the link. I quite agree -my original post said 'storm' without specifying. The interesting thing is that in the sequence in the link, the track forecast on Thu 13th has Helene in the Irish sea by Tuesday - and subsequent forecasts stop at Monday. Ergo, suddenly weaker than first forecast


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
marco 79
16 September 2018 08:50:23
GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
DEW
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17 September 2018 06:30:12

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


Still there this morning but ECM doesn't want to know. Fax charts just show a wave on a stalled front. MetO forecasts have also backed away from rain affecting the south.


Changeable but generally warm this week but cooler later especially over Europe http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.


Jet stream forecast matches this with a typical W-E flow for now, before going south over Europe around the 23rd and then into crazy oscillations later that week. https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
17 September 2018 09:07:19

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


 


indeed - autumn hasnt really kicked in for trees losing their folliage, so we could end up in quite a bit of bother and disruption.  Blocked drains - flooding, and branches/trees down looks a real possibility.


noodle doodle
17 September 2018 10:25:51

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


 


XCWeather on the GFS 00Z says my neck of the woods (Edinburgh) is getting 100mm of rain in two spells on thursday and sunday


 


Say it ain't so Joe...


 


bad wevver


 


 

Saint Snow
17 September 2018 10:31:24

Last week, when I booked half a day off for this week to fit in a round of golf, the forecast was fine. Now Wednesday afternoon looks miserable. FFS.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
noodle doodle
17 September 2018 12:17:25
Hurray, we're saved, it's down to 25mm and the rain on Sunday has disappeared altogether
severnside
17 September 2018 15:19:45


Last week, when I booked half a day off for this week to fit in a round of golf, the forecast was fine. Now Wednesday afternoon looks miserable. FFS.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


I know how you feel, I had last Tuesday booked and it was a horrible day, that was only 4 days in advance, how quickly forecasts change!!

idj20
17 September 2018 16:30:11

Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
17 September 2018 17:07:03


Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


It still looks dramatic enough on the standard GFS pot. Looks potent for December/January, never mind September when all the trees are in full leaf. That would give this area a real battering as it moves east and the north-westerlies kick in. Talk about the calm before the storm, I would be right in the eye there!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
marco 79
17 September 2018 17:14:49

[quote=idj20;1035355]


Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 


Jesus!!....it produces 80mph gusts through the English Channel early Sunday morning ...then winds transfer to East coast up to near on 90mph gusts Sunday afternoon...hopefully it has been.on the glue....that's crazy for mid Sept down here...


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
idj20
17 September 2018 18:38:17


 


It still looks dramatic enough on the standard GFS pot. Looks potent for December/January, never mind September when all the trees are in full leaf. That would give this area a real battering as it moves east and the north-westerlies kick in. Talk about the calm before the storm, I would be right in the eye there!


Originally Posted by: Col 



And yet the 12z ECM is just isn't interested at all, which highlights the quite stark model divergence in the "reliable" 144 hours range.


 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Arcus
17 September 2018 18:40:55
Plenty of wet and windy weather on offer now from the models over the next week or so. Last week much of the output was progging a HP build post-Helene, but that seems to be off the table for the foreseeable.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Solar Cycles
17 September 2018 19:59:30




And yet the 12z ECM is just isn't interested at all, which highlights the quite stark model divergence in the "reliable" 144 hours range.


 


Originally Posted by: idj20 

I would tend to side more with the GFS when it comes to systems coming in of the Atlantic, though I can’t see it being anything as dramatic as what’s being shown above, hopefully.

roadrunnerajn
17 September 2018 20:18:19
Ex Hurricane Helene seems to be the crank to wake up the ' up till now lazy Atlantic '.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECM going the way of the GFS by tomorrow. With all that heat still in the ocean and colder air now forming in the high Atlantic I could see the potential for some strong storms forming quite quickly.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
ballamar
17 September 2018 22:55:50
2 runs could be a stormy Sunday - blow away the cobwebs along with some trees!
Retron
18 September 2018 03:54:53



And yet the 12z ECM is just isn't interested at all, which highlights the quite stark model divergence in the "reliable" 144 hours range.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Have you seen the ensembles?



One of the runs, IMBY, has gusts well into the 90s mph - 94mph, to be exact. Not sure there'd be a BY left if that run came off!


Incidentally, Folkestone is even worse:


https://weather.us/forecast/2649258-folkestone/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts


163kmh = 101mph!


(EDIT: It's ex-Florence, IIRC. The forecasts in the States up to yesterday showed it being punted into the Atlantic and it shows up well as an elongated low off Canada tomorrow. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif )


 


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2018 06:28:08


 


Have you seen the ensembles?


 


One of the runs, IMBY, has gusts well into the 90s mph - 94mph, to be exact. Not sure there'd be a BY left if that run came off!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


ECM speak with forked tongue! You'd never guess from the standard chart


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx at T=144


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
nsrobins
18 September 2018 06:56:59


 


ECM speak with forked tongue! You'd never guess from the standard chart


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx at T=144


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Always tricky with the time step of ECM to judge.


There is however enough to suggest at least the risk of something high end over the weekend - I’m forecasting for a big outdoor event in Portsmouth so I’ve got my peepers on it.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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