Indeed. Now you see it, now you don't1 The rain band that was forecast to envelop us next week is now positioned ober Germany & Poland, and the Uk (especially the South) is pretty well dry. Temps about average overall, which hasn't changed.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

 

BBC have gone the other way this morning with even cooler temperatures and rain on 3 days next week. Hopefully this is BBC being typically slow with their data but I am going to the lakes so it is likely to be wet and cold :(

That's quite a plume for the second half of September!

That's quite a plume for the second half of September!

 

If that verifies then that would be a date record for 30.0C

It would be a date record but not the latest date 30C has been reached - that's Sept 27 1895!

I thought Oct a few years ago got 30C unless I'm mistaken

 

I thought Oct a few years ago got 30C unless I'm mistaken

No, it annoyingly maxed out at 29.9C on OCt 1 2011!

But for the next week, LP to the north of the UK, HP to the south, assorted fronts moving irregularly across the country. It'll depend on the timing of these fronts, whether they pass by you in the day or in the night, to determine if you enjoy the weather this coming week

Snow rows have started appearing in the last 24 hours. 

Snow rows have started appearing in the last 24 hours. 

Severe danger of this topic disappearing off page 1 - what does that say about the weather?

Answer: changeable, with the best advice to look at the charts twice a day and oftener if possible as the models can't make up their mind! The fax charts are probably the best in this situation, and even they don't help much! So warm, ven hot, to the south, cool and breezy to the north, and a wriggling front dividing the two for some days to come. But wriggles tend to be random and so the weather across the center of the UK will be unpredictable for several days.

Yup, we've definitely hit that time of the year where the summer fans go quiet as the prospect of heat begins to drain away, the winter fans can't see anything too exciting and the weather itself tends to drift along.

Could be some interest after day 10 depending on how the tropical storms/hurricanes interact with things - I assume it's a tropical storm that bumps in to the Azores high. Might serve to inflate or shove the HP over us and give a late dry and warm spell. GFS shows that one dying as it hits the HP but another presumably by then ex-tropical system ending as a big, vigorous LP system bringing us unsettled weather - so could either help us or just add enough oomph in to things to interrupt the current pattern.

Only other thing I noticed this morning compared to when I've glanced at the previous runs is a tendency to allow the jet to dig a little further South, bringing the threat of more unsettled weather down the country.

When will we see our first named storm of the  Autimn season?

Snow rows have started appearing in the last 24 hours. 

Bit early for those at the moment isn't it?

Bit alarmed at how quickly the cold is expected to set in over Canada:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_264_mslp850.png?cb=837

When will we see our first named storm of the  Autimn season?

 

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Probably about T200 if the 12z op is to be believed....

---

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Bit alarmed at how quickly the cold is expected to set in over Canada:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_264_mslp850.png?cb=837

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

3c max progged  for Calgary on weds with Sleet and Snow.....

 

---

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Hurricanes Florence and Helene much less prominent on this morning's charts so hopes of quantities of warm air being pumped up from the tropics are fading. Instead the NW Atlantic will supply troughs, so cool and occasionally damp for a while.

It's quite notable how the GEFS suddenly diverges into 'anything is possible' territory from the weekend onwards.

It's quite notable how the GEFS suddenly diverges into 'anything is possible' territory from the weekend onwards.

Nothing sustained in terms of warmth though. A mobile signature with spikes indicative of warm sector and cooler incursions.