Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.

Yes, post-tropical transition expected by 12z Sunday when Ex-Helene will be north of the Azores according to MetO faxes.

 

Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.

Honest, it did when I posted it. At that stage NHC was prepared to give its position as a storm through to mid-afternoon Tuesday and then retrenched to mid Monday. Now the link only shows it as far as Monday morning! 

 

Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.

That is the trouble with posting links to satisfy the copyright issues on posting an image; they update.

I've just carried out my detailed look at the models. A few things stand out.

1. Ex Helene's approach towards Ireland on Monday.


2. An incredibly warm night Mon/Tues thanks to tropical air


3. The sharpness of the cold front on Thursday as it moves SE'wards.

Lots to keep an eye on. 

I've just carried out my detailed look at the models. A few things stand out.

1. Ex Helene's approach towards Ireland on Monday.


2. An incredibly warm night Mon/Tues thanks to tropical air


3. The sharpness of the cold front on Thursday as it moves SE'wards.

Lots to keep an eye on. 

Yes, noticed the warm uppers (16 C at 850 hpa over Kent) associated with ex-Helen running through Scotland is going to prevent temperatures from falling any lower than 19 C at Midnight on Monday night here at this end of our beloved county. While we'll also be missing out on the rain, it'll still be quite windy.

#blowtorch #summerhangingonbyitsfingernails

 

Not on that link it doesn't..  A post tropical was to the southwest of Ireland.

It never did - it was always a white "extra-tropical" storm by the time it reached the British Isles.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/HELENE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

(The NHC has an excellent archive of every forecast graphic of every storm).

 

It never did - it was always a white "extra-tropical" storm by the time it reached the British Isles.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/HELENE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

(The NHC has an excellent archive of every forecast graphic of every storm).

Thanks for the link. I quite agree -my original post said 'storm' without specifying. The interesting thing is that in the sequence in the link, the track forecast on Thu 13th has Helene in the Irish sea by Tuesday - and subsequent forecasts stop at Monday. Ergo, suddenly weaker than first forecast

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

Still there this morning but ECM doesn't want to know. Fax charts just show a wave on a stalled front. MetO forecasts have also backed away from rain affecting the south.

Changeable but generally warm this week but cooler later especially over Europe http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.

Jet stream forecast matches this with a typical W-E flow for now, before going south over Europe around the 23rd and then into crazy oscillations later that week. https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream 

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

indeed - autumn hasnt really kicked in for trees losing their folliage, so we could end up in quite a bit of bother and disruption.  Blocked drains - flooding, and branches/trees down looks a real possibility.

GFS 00z develops quite a compact low for UK Thursday as well...maybe one to watch...

XCWeather on the GFS 00Z says my neck of the woods (Edinburgh) is getting 100mm of rain in two spells on thursday and sunday

Say it ain't so Joe...

Last week, when I booked half a day off for this week to fit in a round of golf, the forecast was fine. Now Wednesday afternoon looks miserable. FFS.

Last week, when I booked half a day off for this week to fit in a round of golf, the forecast was fine. Now Wednesday afternoon looks miserable. FFS.

 

I know how you feel, I had last Tuesday booked and it was a horrible day, that was only 4 days in advance, how quickly forecasts change!!

Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.

Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.

It still looks dramatic enough on the standard GFS pot. Looks potent for December/January, never mind September when all the trees are in full leaf. That would give this area a real battering as it moves east and the north-westerlies kick in. Talk about the calm before the storm, I would be right in the eye there!

Has GFS been on the glue again with the 12z output?



Granted, this output for Sun AM shows 1 mb per isobar so it looks more dramatic than it is, but a 968 mb low cutting through the UK would cause problems if this came off. However, UKMO is still being much more reserved about it so it cannot all be taken in isolation.

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Jesus!!....it produces 80mph gusts through the English Channel early Sunday morning ...then winds transfer to East coast up to near on 90mph gusts Sunday afternoon...hopefully it has been.on the glue....that's crazy for mid Sept down here...

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Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

 

It still looks dramatic enough on the standard GFS pot. Looks potent for December/January, never mind September when all the trees are in full leaf. That would give this area a real battering as it moves east and the north-westerlies kick in. Talk about the calm before the storm, I would be right in the eye there!

And yet the 12z ECM is just isn't interested at all, which highlights the quite stark model divergence in the "reliable" 144 hours range.