Ex Hurricane Helene seems to be the crank to wake up the ' up till now lazy Atlantic '.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECM going the way of the GFS by tomorrow. With all that heat still in the ocean and colder air now forming in the high Atlantic I could see the potential for some strong storms forming quite quickly.

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2 runs could be a stormy Sunday - blow away the cobwebs along with some trees!

And yet the 12z ECM is just isn't interested at all, which highlights the quite stark model divergence in the "reliable" 144 hours range.

Have you seen the ensembles?

One of the runs, IMBY, has gusts well into the 90s mph - 94mph, to be exact. Not sure there'd be a BY left if that run came off!

Incidentally, Folkestone is even worse:

https://weather.us/forecast/2649258-folkestone/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

163kmh = 101mph!

(EDIT: It's ex-Florence, IIRC. The forecasts in the States up to yesterday showed it being punted into the Atlantic and it shows up well as an elongated low off Canada tomorrow. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif )

 

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Have you seen the ensembles?

 

One of the runs, IMBY, has gusts well into the 90s mph - 94mph, to be exact. Not sure there'd be a BY left if that run came off!

ECM speak with forked tongue! You'd never guess from the standard chart

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx at T=144

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ECM speak with forked tongue! You'd never guess from the standard chart

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx at T=144

Always tricky with the time step of ECM to judge.

There is however enough to suggest at least the risk of something high end over the weekend - I’m forecasting for a big outdoor event in Portsmouth so I’ve got my peepers on it.

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Glad to see most is blowing through on Wednesday as towing a caravan to Cornwall on Thursday and didn't fancy doing that in a Gale.
Might have to batten down the hatches a bit on Sunday though

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Have you seen the ensembles?

One of the runs, IMBY, has gusts well into the 90s mph - 94mph, to be exact. Not sure there'd be a BY left if that run came off!

Incidentally, Folkestone is even worse:

https://weather.us/forecast/2649258-folkestone/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

163kmh = 101mph!

(EDIT: It's ex-Florence, IIRC. The forecasts in the States up to yesterday showed it being punted into the Atlantic and it shows up well as an elongated low off Canada tomorrow. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif )

 

 

I know the 90mph winds are unlikely to come off, but wouldn't it be ironic if Florence inflicted stronger winds on the UK than it did on the US?

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I know the 90mph winds are unlikely to come off, but wouldn't it be ironic if Florence inflicted stronger winds on the UK than it did on the US?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

I am getting a bit worried by this and conference is starting in Liverpool

Florence will undergo a sex change though and be called Ali - stupid name. Who comes up with this rubbish. Why not just call it Abdul or something

Edit - I see Ali is now Wednesdays system, so I don't know what Florence will become

 

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Blizzards to Scottish Mountains in September

 

would make a very early start (one of the earliest i can remember) start to the snow season in the Gorms

 

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Think the east coast could lose a bit of coastline on Sunday if GFS is to be believed

Nothing comical about Ali if ICON 6z is right.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0

I am getting a bit worried by this and conference is starting in Liverpool

Florence will undergo a sex change though and be called Ali - stupid name. Who comes up with this rubbish. Why not just call it Abdul or something

Edit - I see Ali is now Wednesdays system, so I don't know what Florence will become

 

"Florence" most likely be called Bronagh should the outputs for Sunday bear fruit. I mean, who actually bears that name these days?

Is it too soon for me to say I'm already bored of Autumn now?  

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Nothing comical about Ali if ICON 6z is right.

Stiff breeze :)

The 12z GFS op run suggests some of the strongest winds up here too yet we are not in the amber warning area. Presumably due to topographical features the stronger winds will be elsewhere and not where the raw model output suggests?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_27_19.png  (These are max gusts in kph)

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"Florence" most likely be called Bronagh should the outputs for Sunday bear fruit. I mean, who actually bears that name these days?

Is it too soon for me to say I'm already bored of Autumn now?  

It annoys me to even get involved in a conversation about naming low pressure systems such is the contempt I hold for this ridiculous convention, but according to the ‘rules’ any low worthy of the assignation of a name, either under Met Eirann rules or UKMO rules, that has remnants of tropical systems still entrained in its circulation, will retain the name of the said tropical system.

I can therefore announce that should the weekend storm be a named one it will keep it’s name (Florence) and not be given a new name (Bronagh) despite it qualifying for a new one and it being an ex former one. In Holland it’ll still be ex Florence and not another name again as they use different names. And so the pantomime continues.

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The consistency shown by GFS for a major storm across the country on Sunday is unerring with once again rapid cyclogenesis of the remnants of Florence between Sat pm and Sun pm, by which time 80+ mph winds sweep across the south and midlands.

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The consistency shown by GFS for a major storm across the country on Sunday is unerring with once again rapid cyclogenesis of the remnants of Florence between Sat pm and Sun pm, by which time 80+ mph winds sweep across the south and midlands.

UKMO meanwhile continues in its on/off//hot/cold handling of these systems, Neil:

 

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I honestly cant remember seeing those colours being used before

 

 

100mm of rain, upwards of 140mm of rain in the space of 18 hrs.  This is quickly turning into something exceptional

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The consistency shown by GFS for a major storm across the country on Sunday is unerring with once again rapid cyclogenesis of the remnants of Florence between Sat pm and Sun pm, by which time 80+ mph winds sweep across the south and midlands.

 

Would certainly blow the cobwebs away wouldn't it? 

 

It annoys me to even get involved in a conversation about naming low pressure systems such is the contempt I hold for this ridiculous convention, but according to the ‘rules’ any low worthy of the assignation of a name, either under Met Eirann rules or UKMO rules, that has remnants of tropical systems still entrained in its circulation, will retain the name of the said tropical system.

I can therefore announce that should the weekend storm be a named one it will keep it’s name (Florence) and not be given a new name (Bronagh) despite it qualifying for a new one and it being an ex former one. In Holland it’ll still be ex Florence and not another name again as they use different names. And so the pantomime continues.

I'd wondered whether it would be "Storm Florence" or Storm Bronagh" so thanks for confirming. 

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Would certainly blow the cobwebs away wouldn't it? 

 

I honestly think the winds wont be the story - it will be the flooding.  All the rain coming down off those hills.  I would be very concerned if i live on one of those valleys off the hills ie Glossop etc...

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