This Friday’s event looks like it’s a small scale shallow low coming up from France, not quite an MCS but with similar characteristics. That probably means uncertainty on location, timing and amounts right up to 6 hours or so before it happens.

It seem a same repeat like last Friday so some areas will get it otherwise no rain for next 15 days.  Next door neighbour just washed the car and gave a very strong smell in here so when it does rain expect extremely strong smell this time.

UKMO and GFS 12z runs look increasingly anticyclonic 

The ensembles (both GFS and ECM) have been trending warmer again towards the end of next week. It could well be a case of "blink and you'll miss it" when it comes to the less-warm conditions forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Still, as someone who's fed up with the lack of rain it's good to see that there's still a strong signal for some rain from Friday onwards.

It might not be as cool as it was looking, but at least it still looks like the drought will break down here.

GFS 12z banging in the heat again more easily than France did goals this afternoon. Wow! 

Indeed, the trend is your friend when looking at the NWP output at the moment - there's a clear shift toward filling the trough and lifting it northward mid-week. The ark-builders might want to fill the boat with water instead. 

I wouldn't be so sure of that, Darren. I'm not sure the rain will make it down to your location (or be that notable) given the current trend if the 12z are anything to go by.

ECM will be interesting later... 

Truth be told, I'm pretty desperate from a respite from summer. 6+ weeks of sunshine, heat and no rain whatsoever makes a heat-hater like me go slightly crazy!

Given the crap performance of the models so far this summer (in terms of showing colder conditions, mirage-like, never quite making it) I wouldn't be surprised if it happens yet again. It's got to break sometime, though, and at least no matter what happens we're in the last half of summer now.

With the models showing HP strongly move in here at the position where the sea temps are very high at the moment with 21C over south Ireland and SW UK while the channel and Kent coasts now 19C, Also the Baltic sea are very warm in the low 20's so that probably the reason why HP had been there all summer compare to LP and green to yellow sea temps zones that filter all the way down to near Portugal from what I remember.   HP prefer warm sea to sit and LP prefer cold sea temps I think.

https://www.seatemperature.org/

it updated daily and very interesting.

ECM also shows pressure of 1005hPa over South East England by the 25th, which = rain rain rain.

That will help hold up the CET figures.

When it does break, which it will, and the relentless drizzle and hill cloud move in for weeks on end, this fine spell will seem like a distant memory.

GFS 06Z run suggests further strengthening of high pressure in the mid-term, so that by T180 the anticyclone is positioned near to Scandinavia, and a hot plume is heading for the UK.

Summer 2018 isn't over yet.

Just watched a BBC forecast and it shows the heat building back very rapidly.

 If that's correct it sounds like they have backtracked quicker than moomin. Goodness knows why they don't highlight uncertainty when looking more than a few days ahead.

BBC forecast at lunchtime has now cancelled the rain for the south for Friday. Pressure rapidly building after the passage of the weak cold front, then the low pressure to the NW is stalling and not moving SE as previously thought. Warming up again for the south for the weekend.

This seems to follow the pattern shown by the latest GFS run, which shows high pressure re-asserting and then setting up over the North Sea and Scandinavia. Definite reload in prospect with a possible hot end to July.

To their credit, they did mention that the rain had been looking to head south, but now doesn't. Given that we had an ECM 12z followed by a GFS 00z showing that scenario, I can see how they ended up going for that yesterday, as they don't tend to do 'trends' such as we were seeing in the output as a whole until they've been going for at least a day, which scientifically at least is a good way to go about it.

Anyway, neat to see the GFS 06z move back toward a more SW-NE jet stream alignment for the weekend into next week, after a few runs going for a more W-E orientation. With ECM having also made such an adjustment, it's down to the 12z runs to move the new solution, with increased broad plume potential thanks to the Atlantic trough having to drop down a good deal further west, from 'maybe' to 'probably' in the mysterious drawers of my mind.

It's the better fit for the Nino-like tropical forcing now falling into place, but sadly that's never a guarantee when it comes to the weather .

Nor GEM. Same pattern, low pressure digging further south. Better MetO.

But it only starts to differ in FI (post 168) so still looking good. Even into FI the south remains very warm.

HP covering us right to early next week look very good to me?  Don't care about the FI runs from Tuesday onward next week as they been showing it for nearly 2 months now.