How long will the fine weather continue for? GFS 00z says there's no end in sight, at least for southern regions. 

Also looks like the GEFS has shifted towards a warmer / hotter and drier longer term outlook. Fire and brimstone stuff for some I suspect. 

But at least a suggestion of rain in southern parts - above and he second week in http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

Agree with your comment but remember the GFS was showing significant rainfall in the southern half of the UK this week. Most places have remained bone dry and it's clear the GFS struggles with convective precipitation the "wrong" way.  Here's the GFS 00z 10 day aggregate rainfall projection.

I did put 'suggestion' not 'forecast'

If that the case many records will be broken in term of sunshine hours, max average, dry duration days and parching giving off very strong smell now at nights which I experience normally in Cyprus at nights.    Complete contrast to last year models so confident showing never ending unsettled runs. 

The Pennine rain shadow in full force

Dead right there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Indeed Brian I worked out the average day T for London until the 22 July =25.7c we can add a couple on which I have not done.

Also of note some members going very hot again in the 3 week fab stuff.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

We continue the GFS trend of 4 upgrades followed by 4 downgrades (or thereabouts). I reckon we have one more upgrade  in the offing for this 06z before the trend turns again. ECM continues to show a bit of a pattern change so I’m not feeling optimistic yet.

Amazing T chart just 24 hours away Bank

How on earth can you not be feeling optimistic when we are currently having a hot and sunny weekend and have just experienced one of the best first halves of summer in living memory? 

I know it has been less spectacular in the SE... but come on! :D 

You remind me of me. Constantly looking at the output when we should be just enjoying what’s right in front of our noses. 

I suspect it would be difficult to go through the records and find a February to July period that I would sooner have lived through in the Chilterns than the one in 2018. 

My sense that everything will be ok and the patterns of the recent past will repeat in the near future was undermined a bit on 23rd June 2016. But yes, we should enjoy the present. And I’m not particularly bothered (so long as my long planned mass barbecue on the 20th stays dry), just interested in the output.

I guess he is doing what people like me do in a cold spell, always looking for the end!

But whilst it is looking less hot later in the period, its still mostly dry for southern England as far as the eye can see

Last night was horrific, couldn't sleep at all. Hopefully will improve a bit next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0

a few days ago GFS was confident of a breakdown, now the block renews itself

Horrendous stuff for people like me.

Quite right. As is often the case, the raw statistics always seem more impressive in retrospect and it is easy to miss or fail to appreciate the weather while it is happening. Future weather buffs will look back at the data for 2018 and think, wow, a proper Siberian easterly, with heavy snow falling in -5C daytime temperatures in late Feb/early March, then another blast of snow in mid-March, followed by a heatwave reaching 29C in April, and a very dry and sunny June and (at least) first half of July. We have been spoilt this year!

EPS has both pressure, and heat, building over the eastern Europe region during the last 3rd of the month. Any blip betwixt now and then looks to be shamefully lame.

1947. Particularly as, being in the Chilterns, the March flooding would not have affected you. 

Worth a read (it's quite brief). Emphasizes that persistent easterlies are the key to great weather in the British Isles, whatever the season:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1948.tb00856.x

It looks like it's heading towards Iceland. Could that inflate the Azores high back over the UK?

Oh dear. The rest of the run has it drifting into the vicinity of the UK, filling all the time and sending the weather downhill. Thankfully it's all out in FI so not to be taken seriously.

I have seen these ex hurricanes derail settled spells before though. Anyone remember Bertha? It sent the rest of August 2014 down the pan.

Gfs members look hotter at the surface out until the 15th Wednesday cooler day is more or less dropped

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Mean looking good later on Hints of Mrs QueenT from NW about high pressure moving more eastwards.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=21&mode=0&carte=0