The trend from GFS and ECM this evening is clear. After a minor 'blip' with scattered showers, high pressure returns with a prospect of more warmth toward the end of July. Ex-T storm Chris has worried the models more than it should. Together with warmer nights, there is now the real prospect of July managing to reach at least 19.0C in the CET series, a fact that has only happened on two previous occasions since 1659. That really is quite incredible!

If you're referring to Sarah Keith-Lucas' forecast issued this evening, it doesn't lood that bad to me.

The only significant rain she mentioned was when she mentioned the possibility of a "higher chance of rain" later in the week and as we go towards next weekend. ECM does support this idea as it shows a LP diving down over the country on Friday/Saturday, but then shows pressure recovering to a degree.

In short, it doesn't look as pessimistic a forecast as you make it sound, Kieren.

Yes looked quite reasonable to me, she quoted a high of 25 in London as being average! that's b****y hot out here in west Wales. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44833428

Try the 6z tomorrow 

'Jam tomorrow, never jam today' - wait for another model run e.g. GFS0z and the breakdown gets pushed back/played down again - though the BBC forecast ws a bit more definite about the prospect of rain in a week's time.

To paraphrase a quote (that was never made) from the 1970s (after 76 though sadly). "Breakdown. What breakdown?"

Arpege shows no rain here up to Thursday, temps from 24 to 26C next week. Not too shabby.

Some very impressive heat covering all of Europe.  we're on the edge of it but even here the end of July could be very hot.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Like in winter, it wouldn’t take much to tap into that extreme air mass. Some plumey stuff would be very hot and sticky but would be a cherry on top of this incredible summer. 

The 06z GFS has the Azores High starting to ridge back in by the middle of next week, so hopefully (from my POV anyway) the unsettled blip will be just that, a blip. I've been loving this summer so far, and long may the warm and sunny weather continue.

More rain about Friday.

Fingers crossed Monday and Friday delivers some heavy rain to my garden!  

hopefully. I’m visiting friends and family in Aberdeen from the 27th onwards last time my summer visit coincided with decent weather was July 2013.

Some ridging there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Same set up today. Ensembles warm and patchy rainfall spikes which could well equate to nothing unless you catch a thundery downpour. Once again the end of ECM could be a prelude to the furnace but until then it'll carry on as you were apart from the odd cooler day if its remains cloudy 

Looking good to me if you like dry and warm or hot weather. Not saying it will be completely dry but the shift that has taken place in the ensembles during the last 36 hours continues.

yes, its still looking bad for coldies but at least this week may provide some rain and cooler temps