It's a bit of a backtrack and given the recent GFS output it isn't as good. But it's not terrible either (especially for the south) and the main differences are still well in FI. Expect more changes over the coming days.

Be interesting to see the GEFS later and of course the ECM. UKMO very positive again and GFS fine in the reliable.

The latest model debacle shows why it's been so pointless this summer to look beyond 5 days out.

Of course the pattern will eventually break, but persistence  remains the best forecast with anomalous high pressure northeast of the UK.

I think both the breakdown runs and the very hot runs will keep failing.

That run is the Jires furnace from ecm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

you cant rule out mid thirty C for London and s/e on that run

3O Something uppers across Turkey madness depth of heat across Europe

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=19&model=ecm&var=2&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0

>Thirty expected again sub T76 hours

Eastern Turkey is high altitude though - the surface pressure is below 850hPa in places. So those “uppers” on the map are actually “lowers”, or in some cases potentially higher than the surface temp.

Anyone like to comment? that looks very hot to me 35c?

Agree with that. Persistence - what the weather “wants” to do, is the best bet, at least until it isn’t.

Exactly.

 I dont like the gnats thou

Records would be broken in Belfast and places in Scotland.   once again the uppers are lower here but can reach 35c due to very dry ground.  Surprised to see one chart you put show 30 to 31c in Thursday.  it seem to being closer on  each run so a cool break is very short lived.

GEFS also quite dry down here. Mean pressure a tad lower than 00z and 06z but still better than a few days ago.

I head to France next Wed for 3 weeks. Usually looking for some searing heat at this point, but having had such a nice summer so far I’m keener I’m having 3 weeks of 28C and sunshine.

Crikey you are going to roast 

France likely to be in the cooker. Which area? Usually the south western interior records the highest values in these sorts of set ups. Enjoy your holiday and keep cool!

This summer is turning out to be a classic. It will already stick in the memory... almost as fun as winter model watching waiting for this heat to expire or continue to hold. 

Just when it looked like changing to cooler this week another resurge is on the cards. Down south it’s honestly felt like a non-stop heat wave since 3rd week of June. 

I don’t remember seeing lawns and hills turning so brown. 

Here is how tonight's EC15 (500hPa anom) looks at day 15:

Normal E/W flow remains very disrupted. 

LP a bit closer to you than earlier in the season. But as for Scandinavia: I was talking to a Swede today and they have had a spring and summer every bit as hot and dry as ours. In fact they had a much drier spring. No rain since May. Trees shedding all leaves in the parks. That EC15 gives an illustration of why.

Something in me senses this might not be a dry or blocked period that ends in September, but one that could run until 2019. Even if we have a month or so of normal service in between, as seems likely at some point.

Indeed. Thinking that we may be in a more prolonged "drought" and could this be THE 1975 prior to 1976 type scenario.

On the other hand, I still remember the summer that followed the great summer of 2006. In fact 2007 and 2008 were the most dreadful payback. Let's hope that doesn't repeat.

Quite possible yes. Brian and a few others including myself believe the record breaking SSW in February is still having long term affects. How long for and Whether they continue beyond autumn is the key but we’re in uncharted territory. A betting man would go for a dry and bitter winter, at least for one of the winter months to come. 

Maconnais, just north of Lyon. I have a holiday home there and go a few times every year. Eastern France has been warmer and drier than the south west this year. In fact it’s been pretty wet and ordinary in the SW (and Spain, Provence and Italy).

I would also like to agree with you. However, the latest runs from ECM are hinting at something a bit different. Even GFS is hinting at it, but  perhaps in a different way.

Ex-T storm Chris has failed to deliver the disruptive influence to the block we have enjoyed now for so long. But it may just be that the injection of energy from Chris has changed the character of the block itself. In the latest runs the SW/NE block has shifted a little bit further east. This may introduce warmer air from continental Europe, which is now getting hot. This is one important component we have not experienced so far this summer. Our warmth and dryness have all been largely home grown. Hence the lack of a really big heatwave 'a la 21st June to 9th July 1976'. We've had consistently warm dry and sunny weather, hence the above average temperatures, but nothing truly spectacular.

Now we have the prospect of real heat. Conversely it could all break down, but somehow the gut feeling is this won't happen. All the ingredients for real heat are in place: the bone dry and warm United Kingdom, the rising sea temperatures, the hot continental Europe, a subtle change in the orientation of the block. There is nothing also on the horizon to bolster the jet. Everything is in place for the development of a serious heatwave, and this is the indication from ECM this evening.