The Weather Outlook

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golfingmad
16 July 2018 21:08:45

 

Maconnais, just north of Lyon. I have a holiday home there and go a few times every year. Eastern France has been warmer and drier than the south west this year. In fact it’s been pretty wet and ordinary in the SW (and Spain, Provence and Italy).

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I can confirm the spring in southern Spain, particularly the Costa de Sol and further east toward Almeria, was incredibly cool and wet. A real shock even to the locals, who were struggling to remember anything like it before!

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
White Meadows
16 July 2018 21:41:59

 

I can confirm the spring in southern Spain, particularly the Costa de Sol and further east toward Almeria, was incredibly cool and wet. A real shock even to the locals, who were struggling to remember anything like it before!

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

mallorca was cool and wet right up until late June. 

Sevendust
16 July 2018 21:43:29

I would also like to agree with you. However, the latest runs from ECM are hinting at something a bit different. Even GFS is hinting at it, but  perhaps in a different way.

Ex-T storm Chris has failed to deliver the disruptive influence to the block we have enjoyed now for so long. But it may just be that the injection of energy from Chris has changed the character of the block itself. In the latest runs the SW/NE block has shifted a little bit further east. This may introduce warmer air from continental Europe, which is now getting hot. This is one important component we have not experienced so far this summer. Our warmth and dryness have all been largely home grown. Hence the lack of a really big heatwave 'a la 21st June to 9th July 1976'. We've had consistently warm dry and sunny weather, hence the above average temperatures, but nothing truly spectacular.

Now we have the prospect of real heat. Conversely it could all break down, but somehow the gut feeling is this won't happen. All the ingredients for real heat are in place: the bone dry and warm United Kingdom, the rising sea temperatures, the hot continental Europe, a subtle change in the orientation of the block. There is nothing also on the horizon to bolster the jet. Everything is in place for the development of a serious heatwave, and this is the indication from ECM this evening.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Yes it needs watching. ECM repeatedly toys with the furnace albeit in longer term. Whatever it continues very warm for much of the time 

Rob K
16 July 2018 21:45:57
This was meant to be the week the heatwave broke... well after a couple of days of 23-24C the automated forecast is back up to 27C by Thursday and then 28/29 right out to the middle of next week. Some breakdown!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

White Meadows
16 July 2018 21:48:14

This was meant to be the week the heatwave broke... well after a couple of days of 23-24C the automated forecast is back up to 27C by Thursday and then 28/29 right out to the middle of next week. Some breakdown!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Moomin won’t have to put away his Bermuda shorts & straw hat afterall. 

Chunky Pea
16 July 2018 21:50:59

There is a really serious cold pool up in the NW Atlantic right now that has been there over the last 6 weeks or so, and which does not look like moving away fast. I reckon if this persists, then once we get into a real westerly pattern (if we ever do again!) then it could become quite interesting down the line. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

White Meadows
16 July 2018 21:52:27
Encouraging signs for the furnace:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

I hope we don’t get any further forest fires. What happened a couple of weeks ago again soon would be a lot worse. The woods & fields are practically kindling.

Chunky Pea
16 July 2018 21:56:56

 

LP a bit closer to you than earlier in the season. But as for Scandinavia: I was talking to a Swede today and they have had a spring and summer every bit as hot and dry as ours. In fact they had a much drier spring. No rain since May. Trees shedding all leaves in the parks. That EC15 gives an illustration of why.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I'd well believe it. Extreme heat and extreme dryness is the theme this summer so far. Conditions in the east of my own country, having received very little rain over the weekend, is now getting into serious drought territory. 40 shades of green has become 40 shades of brown. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

moomin75
16 July 2018 22:02:41

 

Moomin won’t have to put away his Bermuda shorts & straw hat afterall. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

😂😂😂 I am starting to get concerned that my Ark may catch fire.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

LeedsLad123
16 July 2018 22:12:26

Speaking of Scandinavia - according to this Norwegian guy on another weather forum I use, one station in Norway has had 15 days of 30C or higher this year.

When was the last time anywhere in the UK achieved that?

Heck, Trondheim, at 63N, had a warmer average high in May than we did, even though their long-term average for May is 13C (compared to 16C here).

When it comes to extremes, almost everywhere else in Europe is better than here. Even Scandinavia beats us in the summer.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2018 22:24:00

Speaking of Scandinavia - according to this Norwegian guy on another weather forum I use, one station in Norway has had 15 days of 30C or higher this year.

When was the last time anywhere in the UK achieved that?

Heck, Trondheim, at 63N, had a warmer average high in May than we did, even though their long-term average for May is 13C (compared to 16C here).

When it comes to extremes, almost everywhere else in Europe is better than here. Even Scandinavia beats us in the summer.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

I think it was 1995 if I'm not mistaken. Rounded to the nearest degree C, I think Heathrow recorded 18 days of 30c+ in 1995. 2003 and 2006 have been the closest since then with about 12/13 days of 30c+ (rounded) for the same location. These stats are for June/July/August. 

Home: London (NE)

Work: London (Central)

golfingmad
16 July 2018 22:31:02

Speaking of Scandinavia - according to this Norwegian guy on another weather forum I use, one station in Norway has had 15 days of 30C or higher this year.

When was the last time anywhere in the UK achieved that?

Heck, Trondheim, at 63N, had a warmer average high in May than we did, even though their long-term average for May is 13C (compared to 16C here).

When it comes to extremes, almost everywhere else in Europe is better than here. Even Scandinavia beats us in the summer.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

To answer your question, between 23rd June and 7th July 1976, a period of 15 consecutive days, the temperature of 32C was achieved or exceeded in each of these days in various locations throughout the United Kingdom. I believe that is a record for the United Kingdom that hasn't been achieved before or since. 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
xioni2
16 July 2018 22:36:47

Complete flip on the latest EC46 as expected, keeping the high pressure for most of August.

 

Retron
17 July 2018 03:58:48

Encouraging signs for the furnace:
http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

I hope we don’t get any further forest fires. What happened a couple of weeks ago again soon would be a lot worse. The woods & fields are practically kindling.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Thankfully we're not in the Netherlands. The UK ensembles (why don't people use them?) show a cooler picture. Last night's ECM op was in the 90th percentile for wamth too for much of its run.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro

(Above is for Reading, you can search for other locations).

Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
17 July 2018 05:40:28

 

Thankfully we're not in the Netherlands. The UK ensembles (why don't people use them?) show a cooler picture. Last night's ECM op was in the 90th percentile for wamth too for much of its run.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro

(Above is for Reading, you can search for other locations).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I’m sure the Netherlands is pretty dry too, but you don’t see arsonists running around the public fields over there. 

Its a very dry outlook for most and it may not take much for a hosepipe ban to come into force.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2018 06:44:22

I’m sure the Netherlands is pretty dry too, but you don’t see arsonists running around the public fields over there. 

Its a very dry outlook for most and it may not take much for a hosepipe ban to come into force.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

On again, off again, rain for Friday in the south. The jet stream has apparently straightened out so LP will continue to roll across Scotland and not dive south as some models proposed (we could have done with that general rain), But a few showers just may drift up from France.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
17 July 2018 07:11:52

ECM toying with us again this morning.  

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

marco 79
17 July 2018 07:41:02
Gfs and Ecm op showing Azores high slowly being pulled back towards Bermuda....

In the unreliable...maybe something to watch as this may allow energy to track SE wards.. But we've been here before...

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
superteacher
17 July 2018 07:53:31

ECM toying with us again this morning.  

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

in a good way?

Jiries
17 July 2018 07:55:56

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Very dry run and the rain spikes gone on the 21st and notice the early runs show zig zag lines similar to Las Vegas ensembles that show zig zag lines every day.  Look like we going to enter the peak of the heat in late July and can see quite a lot of members going up on the 1st August.  Would the record 74 dry days in Mile End, London be broken by August?   Now 40th day without rain here so far.

Solar Cycles
17 July 2018 07:57:04
Retron’s Ensembles watch is what I’ve done for some considerable time, of course it’s not foolproof as these can switch dramatically as well.
Brian Gaze
17 July 2018 08:47:07

in a good way?

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I meant it continues to suggest the possibility of furnace heat.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Northern Sky
17 July 2018 08:49:30

 

I meant it continues to suggest the possibility of furnace heat.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That's definitely not in a good way Brian

Hungry Tiger
17 July 2018 09:54:31

Ridging in well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



golfingmad
17 July 2018 10:02:46

Ridging in well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

The position of the ridging is so important. The trend before has been blocking further to the north and west, now it's a little further south and is in the classic position of heat and more heat. The resemblance to so many charts from 1976 is remarkable.

 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.

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