Im sure this time next week it will be showing signs of settling down again.

I wonder if you also thought that about a month ago when what was later named when Storm Hector began to appear on the models with any consistency.

One could have thought at that time that it would be a long way back to another settled spell, but someone remind me how long that unsettled interlude lasted. Not that long was it!

I was about the post the same tenor of comment, but you beat me to it!

There does appear to be increasing agreement across the models for a change to more unsettled weather next week. However toward the end of ECM there is improvement with signs of a return of the Azores high with ridging suggested at least across southern England.

As pointed out, even in the best of summers there are periods of less settled weather, and indeed most of us would welcome some rain, particularly here in East Anglia. The best example is July 1976, the hottest of all summers in the CET series, where strangely another 'blip' took place at about the same time, between 19th-21th July 1976. With quite a deep low centred over northern Scotland by the 19th July it would be easy to assume that all was over for that summer. The rest of course is history.

As it is, nothing is nailed on until it actually happens. In the meantime, probably best to keep the rain symbols in the cupboard.

Wouldn't it be better to wait until such times as there is cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency with such a solution over a day or two before you say summer could be over?

The models have been all over the place at times in the past few days trying to decide how to deal with ex-storm Chris, and for all we know they may not have that fully resolved yet. I don't understand why you have a tendency to only highlight particularly poor runs and then highlight them by commenting in a way which gives the impression that you think they are almost a nailed-on certainty to verify as shown.

Agree about GEM. The inconsistency in GFS is enough for me anyway to say that next week's weather isn't fully nailed on yet, one way or another.

I agree. Most of the models, particularly GFS, have been volatile and changing tune from run to run for quite a few days now. Gfs was showing a marked improvement in the 06z run and has stepped back again now. I have the impression this volatility in the models became marked with the emergence in the equation of ex-tropical storm Chris. This may suggest that the models are uncertain as how big or small ex-storm Chris will impact with the jet in our part of the Northern hemisphere? I also wonder if some of the models remember the effect of Bertha in August 2015 and how that fundamentally changed the rest of that summer?

What does anyone make of this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Dare I say we have cross model agreement??

Cross model agreement that it's going to be unsettled next week. Don't think it says much about the 6 or 7 weeks that follow it though aka the rest of summer. 

We’re at half time in summer 2018. High pressure scored very early and has dominated the first half.

Can it hang on until full time, or will it switch off and lose possession?

I looked again at ECM. It does indeed look awful at first sight, and would bring cool wet weather with immaculate timing for a barbecue I’m holding for 50 people next Friday. But on second viewing it holds out long term some hope - the weather is stuck in a rut of slow deterioration as the pressure goes slowly down from 1020 to 1015, to 1010 and onwards, whereas this run would bring a sharp shock followed - by the look of things - by a northerly. Northerlies are good at rebooting the weather and if a ridge could build in behind we might end up with a cleaner synoptic picture.

[quote=Hungry Tiger;1016457]

What does anyone make of this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Rather warm.....slack conditions may result in some heavy localised storms...

I just had a look at ECM expecting it to be awful after that comment and it's really not. A few wet days for sure, but the trough seems to be filling and pulling away to the east by the end of the run. Certainly doesn't look like being stuck over us for any length of time.

Could you explain that a bit more 

If the rest of the summer does deteriorate into damp and dismal blandness after a fantastic start, it'll be the summer equivalent of winter 2010/11

Col/shallow trough set up

Warm with shower risk

Some places dry, others at risk from a good downpour

Simple as

That was akin to a forecast from a politician....

Thanks, though, that’s really useful....

ECM 12z has a well-defined but fairly slack LP sitting over the UK next Friday (21st), with even a 552 mb 'green blob'; GFS 0z has however decided to put off any breakdown for a further week. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Very wet outlier and even today they almost flat line it with green outlier line.   Not sure why the models cannot program to handle ex hurricane because it the same as LP pattern so they can program it to  model it correctly than swinging widely.  

Thats weirdly different from the same chart I have which shows the op as by no means an outlier, and a much wetter mean:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=205&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=

Why?

Ah, I see why. Yours has London at 51N, mine 52N. London is actually 50.5. So mine is really showing somewhere like Letchworth, and yours is showing East Grinstead.

Another volatile run from the 06Z GFS run, this time high pressure returns triumphantly to replace the rather slack and flabby set up in the mid term. By T240 onwards a classic summer set-up with a chance for a real plume of heat in the final week of July.

Of course it'll probably be completely different in the next run.