It.2018.and there no need for them to swing widely just because of.stupid ex hurricane as any hurricane still is a low pressure that they can predict where it will travel.  They need either to program it for hurricane low pressures which it normal to appear this season or shut down completely if they can't cope with it. 

Not much sign of this beloved troughing.

The ECM is quite nice, and it weakens one of the two villains that have been threatening us: the trough over Scandinavia and E Europe.

The ridge is less precarious too, albeit pressure isn’t that high. ECM also weakens the other villain, the ridge SW of Greenland towards Newfoundland which is angling depressions down toward us. We need pressure there to drop, and then we can get some proper 1025hPa highs in the vicinity again.

Low pressure just to our east would lower temperatures and create a lot of afternoon convective instability thus cruelly spoiling the perception of this amazing summer so far. Bang on time for the school summer holidays in England.

Lets hope that low pressure stays out to our west to keep the warm theme going before high pressure re-asserts itself. As per ECM. 

Good to see some more substantial signs of a change away from this incessant dry spell down here - heaven knows, the vegetation needs some watering! Although it'll still be on the warm side, at least the rain spikes are getting ever closer.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

It had been very close as today for the last 3 weeks on today spikes failed to happen in early July as there was no flat line dryness that time, last weekend hot spell there was some spikes but never happen.  ECM going for hot weather again next weekend after a warm week.

I think the habit of hot weather occurring are easily happening this year and I do hope to see it continuing to September at least, this will give us many records broken in term of average, dryness days for areas that missed the showers, sunshine hours and hopefully we get a real heat to finish it off.

GEFS is the coolest I’ve seen since the “return of the westerlies” that didn’t happen in June. Mean hovering over the average line throughout the run.

ECM is OKish, Met office too early to say.

The ECM ensembles also show a marked change to cooler, less settled conditions in the south.

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/precipitation

Hard to know what to say really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

The outlook still looks decidedly pleasant away from the north west. I thought you were southern based? In which case you have nothing to worry about. Just think how crap it was at times last sunmer for weeks on end. Theres nothing awful on the cards down here. 

(The GEFS show the switch too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&ext=1&type=3  )

They seem to push away the main rain spikes away from 17th to 19th as it show a lot on 00 for 17th.   They never shown  any hot ensembles run for nearly a month now despite different ground temps results.  

it might be 30 people in the bathroom if your bbq cooking anything to go by 😉

High pressure looks to be making a comeback in about a week's time. End of July could be hot and sunny

Notice how huge Azores HP covering the Atlantic then get sucked in to link with Scandi HP.  Last summer AZ HP was very small and often absent.   The south doesn't look like get much showers so most like isolated showers for a day or 2 so areas that miss the rain could easily record 0mm for whole of July. 

Not much rain for London