40?! 

I’ve lived in both Manchester and Edinburgh so can judge this west vs east nonsense quite objectively. :D

In general Edinburgh is drier and sunnier than Manchester but (it’s a big but), Edinburgh (and much of the east coast of the UK) is often NOT good when the rest of the UK is experiencing heatwave conditions. If it’s 28C and sunny in Manchester on a SE’ly breeze it’s not unknown for it to be 15C and foggy in Edinburgh. Theres’s absolutely nothing worse when the rest of the country is hot and sunny and you’re stuck under low cloud and haar - it happens quite often - it certainly did when I lived there. 

Manchester in general does deserve its wet reputation, not in terms of volume of water (Cardiff and Bristol are wetter in that respect), but in terms of number of rain days. The city is prone to convective showers, more than places closer to the coast including, say, Liverpool. However Manchester is positively arid compared to Glasgow, loads more rain days up there. I think Sheffield has a similar number of rain days to Manchester simply because it’s higher altitude and again, prone to convective showers. Leeds less. 

That said, the weather in general, in the UK, is fairly crap, especially the further north and west you travel. The differences are sometimes exaggerated though and we’re all in a similar crap boat. Kent and the far SE can be very different on occasion. 

Manchester and NW England can occasionally do far better than the rest of the country, especially in easterly and SE’ly conditions. When there’s a SE’ly wind we can sometimes be the hottest part of the country. 

Sorry off topic! 

I’m confident 

(Just a little tribute to the great Gary Sarre)

There is good agreement of warm or even potentially hot weather for many next week across th models. Long may it stay that way. As for 40°C? Perhaps not. 

ECM mean supports the idea of HP over the North Sea.

A general easterly drift likely, but very warm and sunny for most. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

I think the weather has been ok so far this side of Pennines. Some cloudy days but generally ok.

Linton on ouze (York) average max for May was 19.3c compared with 18.2c for Manchester and Liverpool. For June its 19.7c compared with 19.7c for Manchester and 20.2c for Liverpool.

No 30s by Friday either. But I think Bournemouth and Southampton will do well from this one.

Ah, finally a 31C next Sat

On that note, I was looking at Gavin P.'s five day forecast which he does every Wednesday and the GFS model run which he used for that, had the high pressure sitting very slightly to the south of here by the weekend.

Clearly if the high pressure was too far to the south of us, the whole thing would just be a south of England only event but that is clearly not the case this time as the high pressure is still far enough north here, to confine any more unsettled weather to the far north of Scotland and the Northern Isles.

In that scenario, places on the east coast of Scotland such as Aberdeen would benefit the most from the Fohn Effect with a slight SW drift if that came off and if that was to happen, I'm sure that even Richard from Aberdeen would be more than happy with that.

that has 30C written all over it for me down here 😜😛

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro 

Also nice to see a general easterly waft is expected. That should be reinforced by a sea breeze IMBY and keep the hot stuff at bay.

A sustained warm spell does look likely, but at the present the silly end of the scale is most unlikely.

This morning ensembles look so dry but slow warm up than quickie heat runs so I am happy with it and with 13C to 14C uppers I can able to see 30C or 31C as I did recorded 33C last June when uppers was 14C.  The ground is very dry so heating up are easier to achieve.  So good now but need to ensure guarantee that by mid July not to lose our summer like last year so good first half.  Ensembles will tell us when it come to mid july date line appearing or when school holiday date line appear.  Dangerous point those dates and hope we passed it without northern blocking to attack us.

Those charts of a couple of days ago were probably always going to be the peak. At least we don’t, yet, seem to be evolving towards a wet breakdown.

'Less hot' perhaps  Don't mind if we don't hit 30C if it means we stay drier and sunnier for longer. We tend to break down quicker if we import some sultry air from the continent.

Malcolm

Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

06z continues the downgrade trend. We're now talking about a pleasant warm week rather than a heatwave, but with a possible reload the week after. Quite a contrast from yesterday morning when things were looking 1976-esque.

I think it looks absolutely wonderful. People need to quit their whinging :D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

I still expect to see 30C exceeded week. You can usually add a couple of C to the GFS raw output.

I think it's because it might not hit 30C in the home counties..

Those charts would deliver 30C down here on the South coast and likely also parts of Wales and the South West.

BBC radio 4 radio weather at 1 pm advised that next week some parts of the country will certainly reach 30 degrees which is excellent news

I just dont get how 30 degrees and sultry heat is so exciting. A pleasant summer,s day of 25 degrees and comfotrtable humidity is far more enjoyable I wonder what a poll would reveal ?

I think it would be statistically interesting but that is about all, though I accept that some people love intense heat. Today for me is perfect. Temps between 14-16c in a good dry breeze. Not cold, not oppressively warm, but just right. 

I'd like 6 inches of snow all year round, but I accept I'm a weirdo

For people like me who hate heat, the only straw of comfort today is a possible stronger easterly breeze which will hopefully blow in some low cloud which may take time to burn off

Personally I like to experience 30 degrees plus for a summer weekend, just for the sake of it. But if I am honest, a general temperature of 25 degrees is far more comfortable.