If such a strong trough manages to slide all the way down to the mediteranean in such an unusual season, we're up for some very extreme, dangerous weather in Greece.

Really looking forward to the 17's and 18's here 😣

Although this morning's midnight GFS output fell short of the duration of the previous runs, the Op was certainly on the cooler bank of the ENS river; the 06z is a bit discouraging by the second weekend- but hadn't rolled out fully at that point. Await the 06 ENS and later ECM; there's great agreement about heat in the models, but the intensity and especially duration wobbles about a bit at the moment.

The 1976 style stonker in the ENS this time is P05.

It’s notable that few of the runs have truly searing heat (sustained 25C+ uppers) in Southern France or Spain. A lot of recent years we’ve seen those kinds of temperatures. The jet is just so far North this year that it’s not dragging the heat up from the Sahara into Iberia. That’s what is making this summer rather different so far and a bit more like the 1995 than the 2003 or 2006 style of heatwave. It’s also why the North and West are doing very well for once.

Not looking forward to this at all. 

It should be a lot warmer than that but, being the worst decade for warmth in recorded history, there will be nothing noteworthy. However anything with sunshine would be warmly welcomed by me as a significant improvement on the dismal, drab dross of the past 12 days.

Hard to believe the record for June for Aberdeen is 84F(28.9C) when so many of the recent abysmal Junes have struggled to even get into the 20s. That was recorded in the first week as well – twice in fact in 1939 and 1950. First reading was recorded at Craibstone and the second at Dyce. Craibstone only recorded 83F(28.3C) in 1950 - a typical difference -so likely Dyce would have managed 85F(29.4C) had the station existed at the start of June 1939.

Widespread readings of 28-30C across Scotland from 4th – 6th June 1939. 87F(30.6C) at Liberton which I would imagine is the record for Edinburgh. 85F (29.4C) was recorded there in 1950.

Looks like a similar set-up to what's being modelled this time

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1939&maand=6&dag=4&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Let’s see how the coming heatwave compares to those from so long ago that even many pensioners wouldn’t be able to remember them. Poorly, I suspect.

The difference for some of the long suffering Scottish east coasters (if the recent runs are to be believed) is that the centre of the high is further south than the previous blocked period. That, of course, may change.

I would also imagine that Bolty would be excited about that as well since that is his part of the country, although I reckon that he might be a bit disappointed with the lack of any sort of potential thundery activity in his area.

Next week is looking absolutely stunning pretty much across the board with temps widely in the high 20s to low 30s

For me that's absolutely horrific

Stinking sweaty people everywhere, sleepless nights, road rage, yobbos drinking too much etc...

Given what happened to a house only minutes away from where I live 11 days ago, a lack of any possible thundery activity in the near future in this part of the world is very much to be welcomed, IMHO.

And the 1st 40c of the year chart award goes to...

NAVGEM

Nailed on 

ha! :)

This part of the world can do very well on a SE’ly (same goes for Merseyside and the Fylde coast) - we get a slight foehn effect off the Peak District. 

I am excited but mainly just for the sunshine. Whether it’s 23C or 30C I’m not too fussed. 

Certainly looking wonderful next week. Bring it on. 

Not often you set like that nights also becoming very warm with time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Also GFS is certainly ramping up the temps.

The iPhone weather app shows a max of 30C here on Wednesday. Weather Pro and BBC (EPS) show 27C, MetO not yet updated for Wednesday but shows 25C on Tuesday - it’s always the most conservative of the three. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png.

 ECM more of an easterly by t+168.

Still very warm but not as spectacularly hot as some of the other output with the risk of some cloud/haar on the east coast no doubt. 

incoming drought conditions look at those zeros

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

and the gfs jet mean 180

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=180&mode=3&carte=0

mean for London not under 1020 mb

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

outstanding rum sorry run 

Lovely! Those easterlies in May and early June were beautifully dry, sunny and warm around here.

Yes - but you've had your quota of nice weather for the year. It's not really Manchester if it isn't raining.

True. Over the last few days, we have been getting the rain here in Edinburgh which they would normally be getting in Manchester (this has already resulted in this month's rainfall total at Edinburgh Gogarbank so far being just around 5mm short of the 1981-2010 June average), so they are more than welcome to have that rain back if they wish so that we can then have our turn in this part of the world for some nice, warm and sunny weather for a change (I know that the west of Scotland has already had a lot of decent weather during this summer but surely, our turn for getting that here in east of Scotland has to come some time as we still haven't really had that yet in this part of the world).