Should stay about the same or fall a tad after today, then tumble somewhat over the weekend before picking up again. Feels like next week is really the key to whether we can manage a 16C+ CET for the month. We need a few soupy nights with minima in mid to high teens.

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Met Office Hadley          16.0c.        Anomaly        2.2c.    provisional to 15th. 

Metcheck                       15.31c.      Anomaly        1.16c

Netweather                    15.93c       Anomaly        1.84c  

Alton                            16.3c        Anomaly         1.23c

Canvey Island               16.4c        Anomaly         0.22c

Cheadle Hulme              16.8c       Anomaly         1.44c

Clevedon Weather          17.8c      Anomaly         1.36c

Darwen                         17.3c      Anomaly         1.44c

Hexam                          15.0c      Anomaly         0.46c

Mount Sorrel                  15.6c      Anomaly        0.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse   14.9c      Anomaly        0.45

Peasedown St John      17.5c      Anomaly        0.15c

Treviskey Redruth        15.4c      Anomaly        0.1c.

 

Mean of 10 Stations  16.3c  

      

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Met Office Hadley          16.0c.        Anomaly        2.2c.    provisional to 15th. 

Metcheck                       15.31c.      Anomaly        1.16c

Netweather                    15.93c       Anomaly        1.84c  

Alton                            16.3c        Anomaly         1.23c

Canvey Island               16.4c        Anomaly         0.22c

Cheadle Hulme              16.8c       Anomaly         1.44c

Clevedon Weather          17.8c      Anomaly         1.36c

Darwen                         17.3c      Anomaly         1.44c

Hexam                          15.0c      Anomaly         0.46c

Mount Sorrel                  15.6c      Anomaly        0.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse   14.9c      Anomaly        0.45

Peasedown St John      17.5c      Anomaly        0.15c

Treviskey Redruth        15.4c      Anomaly        0.1c.

 

Mean of 10 Stations  16.3c  

      

Half way through the month and to be on 16.0C Not bad going at all.

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Met Office Hadley            15.9c.       Anomaly       2.1c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         15.27c      Anomaly       1.12c

Netweather                      15.87c     Anomaly        1.78c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.3c        Anomaly        -0.5c

Peasedown St John      17.3c       Anomaly        0.95c

Treviskey Redruth     15.0c        Anomaly       0.0c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations 16.3c.             

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Half way through the month and to be on 16.0C Not bad going at all.

 

I wonder if the second half of the month will be lower than the first half.  I know June can be a mixed month so perhaps that wouldn’t be unusual. 

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Met Office Hadley            15.9c.       Anomaly       2.1c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                         15.27c      Anomaly       1.12c

Netweather                      15.87c     Anomaly        1.78c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.3c        Anomaly        -0.5c

Peasedown St John      17.3c       Anomaly        0.95c

Treviskey Redruth     15.0c        Anomaly       0.0c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations 16.3c.             

Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?

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Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?

I have just looked at that Hadley page myself on the Met Office website and from that, I do agree that Arty's info would have been correct if he had stated that it was provisional to the 16th, rather than the 15th.

However, I'm sure that he'll probably just put that down to being just another "senior" moment  as he has done in the past.

 

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Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?

 

It is the 16th.

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

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I have just looked at that Hadley page myself on the Met Office website and from that, I do agree that Arty's info would have been correct if he had stated that it was provisional to the 16th, rather than the 15th.

However, I'm sure that he'll probably just put that down to being just another "senior" moment  as he has done in the past.

  Ahh, well I know how that feels!  

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It's on 12.7C (-0.3C) here, up to today

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In a warm early summer, seems odd to be putting the heating on for a while tonight. Brrrr. might say 16, but it feels not too nice.

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FWIW, the raw GFS 12z numbers suggest a finishing CET about the same as we have now. 

The preceding couple of runs looked notably cooler, though, and as of day 10, the ECM 12z doesn't look to have set up such a high run of temps for the final few days, though it does look warm away from eastern coasts (wait... another easterly, really?).

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  Ahh, well I know how that feels!  

Changed the date now.  All that done before visitors arrived with TWO bottles.....

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Met Office Hadley         15.8c.         Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      15.29c.       Anomaly       1.14c.

Netweather                   15.82c        Anomaly       1.73c

Canvey Island              16.5c          Anomaly        0.12c

Darwen                        17.3c         Anomaly        1.44c

Mansfield Woodhouse  15.4c         Anomaly          0.05c

Peasedown St John     17.1c.        Anomaly          0.75c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations  16.35c. 

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Okay... so that ECM (summer edition)... it's hard to get a good estimate without using up a lot of time, as the one site showing the temps doesn't give much detail without looking on a county basis which would take ages - but I've had a crack at it.

The cool night-day combo Thu (means of around 9*C and 16*C for min and max) and cool night on Fri (mean minimum around 8*C but with following day surprisingly warm at 20*C mean maximum) knock around 0.3*C off the CET. 

Saturday sees similar temps to Friday - which actually makes it surprisingly 'tame' to offset the surprisingly warm preceding day - but the CET doesn't suffer much; about 0.05*C lost.

After one last night just about averaging in the single digits, Sunday daytime sees the warmth kick off, with about a 23 mean maximum. The CET edges up almost immeasurably.

Monday builds on this warmth albeit mainly by day, with a mean minimum in the low double digits but a mean maximum in the mid-20s. The CET gains around 0.1*C.

It then just keeps getting hotter, with min-max estimates of:

Tue 12-14*C, 26-28*C

Wed 15-17*C, 28-31*C

Thu 15-18*C, 30-33*C

- all of which sees the CET estimate climb by around 0.7*C, a large gain for so late in the month. With the pattern looking set for another hot day or two to see out the month, a finishing number in the high 16s would be likely.

 

Down here, the monthly mean falls from 17.0*C to 16.6*C as a result of those few cooler nights and days, but then takes flight and soars, reaching 17.3*C by the end of 28th - placing it around 2*C above the LTA and at a level not seen for any full-month June mean so far this Century. In fact it would beat last year's record-setting figure by half a degree Celsius, having also set a record mean minimum (again beating out last year by a substantial margin; 12.0*C v. 11.7*C) and a record mean maximum (22.5*C, just edging out 2010's 22.4*C).

 

Of course, this is the most extreme run we've seen so far since the idea of a hot spell emerged, and GFS is a lot cooler (but still turning warm, then very warm) - but I thought it worth noting these details down so that in the more likely event that things aren't quite so toasty, we can at least remember the run fondly* for the picture it painted .

(* unless you're not a fan of the heat)

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Hmm, definitely the potential for the warmest June since 1976 now. With a heat wave being modelled for next week, I'd predict the CET might fall in the mid-16s... not had one of those in a very long time!

Interesting times!

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Met office Hadley          15.8c.       Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      15.43c      Anomaly       1.29c

Netweather                   15.92c      Anomaly        1.83c

Canvey Island             16.8c        Anomaly       0.18c

Clevedon Weather       17.5c        Anomaly       1.06c

Mansfield Woodhouse   15.6c      Anomaly      0.42c

Peasedown St John     17.1c.    Anomaly      0.75c.

 

Mean Of  10 Stations    16.37c.       

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Well then.

The GFS 00z took a leap toward ECM's take on the outlook and gave me a rough final CET estimate of 16.3 to 16.7*, which I believe is around 2*C above the long-term average.

The GFS 06z has built on that with slightly better ridge positioning for next Wednesday onward, and as a result, despite being ever so slightly cooler prior to that point, it gives me a final CET estimate of 16.7 to 16.9*C - yes that's very nearly into the 17s! 

 

There's impressive consistency between the two runs, and the ECM 00z was very similar to yesterday's 12z, so this really is a strong signal for June to finish second only to the legendary 1976 (unless I'm missing some other contenders?).

Having said that, I'm keeping an eye on the flat section of jet being predicted to secure the cut-off low staying west of Iberia on Sunday, as those have a habit of turning out more 'wiggly' which makes them less effective at keeping cut-off lows from lifting out N or NNE.

 

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Well then.

The GFS 00z took a leap toward ECM's take on the outlook and gave me a rough final CET estimate of 16.3 to 16.7*, which I believe is around 2*C above the long-term average.

The GFS 06z has built on that with slightly better ridge positioning for next Wednesday onward, and as a result, despite being ever so slightly cooler prior to that point, it gives me a final CET estimate of 16.7 to 16.9*C - yes that's very nearly into the 17s! 

 

There's impressive consistency between the two runs, and the ECM 00z was very similar to yesterday's 12z, so this really is a strong signal for June to finish second only to the legendary 1976 (unless I'm missing some other contenders?).

Having said that, I'm keeping an eye on the flat section of jet being predicted to secure the cut-off low staying west of Iberia on Sunday, as those have a habit of turning out more 'wiggly' which makes them less effective at keeping cut-off lows from lifting out N or NNE.

 

Certainly be the best since 76, SC; but the HADcet series makes 76 about 5th, the warmest (and the latest other) being 1846. As a nice coincidental anecdote, 4 of the 5 warmest end in a 6! Worth noting there are another 4 above 16.5, but 16s in June are rare, the most recent being last year.

 

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Top Ten Junes by descending position from the Hadley CET series:

1) 18.2  1846

2) 18.0  1676

3) 17.3  1826

4) 17.1  1822

5) 17.0  1976

6) 16.9  1762, 1798

8) 16.8  1858

9) 16.6  1775

10) 16.4  1726, 1728, 1818, 1940, 1970.

 

So for June 2018 to get into the 'Top Ten' then it would need to reach at least 16.4 to gain the joint tenth position with five other summers.

Clearly a very warm June, with say anything 16.4 or over is very infrequent, as it has only happened fourteen times since 1659. It will be very interesting to see where June 2018 finally ends up!

 

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