JUNE 2018 CET PREDICTIONS

Historic CET summary for June

1971-2000 14.1C (30 years)

1981-2010 14.5C (30 years)

1998-2017 14.8C (last 20 years)

We have not had a really cold June since 1991 when we saw 12.1C. The lowest since then was 13.5C in 2012 which is only 0.6C below the 1971-2000 mean. Last year was one of the warmest Junes recently with a very warm 16.0C beaten just by 2003 with 16.1C. Of course the real benchmark is 1976 with 17.0C. I have a feeling we could see another warm June this year. 

My June CET prediction is 16.1C - well above average.

Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the CHART

Current model output

GFS (12z) - 850 temperatures well above average. Returns towards average by the end of the run but that is a standard GFS default mechanism. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM - similar to GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

Multi op - good agreement across all models for a warm first 10 days of June

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

Shows only a slightly above average June based on probabilities. The summer as a whole looks to have a greater positive anomaly

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Recent data for June

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/ncic-temp-maps-jja.pdf

Temperature analogues

If we look at years where the April and May CET has been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean in both years we see that June also tends to be very warm. For example, 2017, 2014, 2009, 2007, 2004, 2003 all saw the June CET also more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The lowest June figure in those years was 14.8C and the highest 16.1C. 1992 is another example and also 1959 and 1960. There are actually very few matches before 1992 and yet we have had 6 matches since 2003. It is becoming a recurring theme. So odds on a warm June I would say with a reasonable chance of a very warm June (i.e. >15C).

First look at June temperature tracker

Very warm!

That is a high one there Simon you're going for.

Food for thought there - It does look though this nice warm stuff has certainly another couple of weeks to run.

I think a quite warm June could be on the way as well this year. The models seem to be suggesting a lot of high pressure and warmth for the first half of the month. The only caveat would be whether we see cool or warm night-time minima.

Hi Simon

Your inbox is full. Presumably I don't have to resend my CET prediction do I?

Same here. Please let us know if you receive our predictions.

I think if his inbox is full, he won’t get your predictions. I’m pretty sure you’ll have to re-send them. 

Sorry now sorted. Please send your prediction again if you got a message that my inbox was full.

The last prediction I received was at 12:59 today. So if you sent yours after that time please resend.

Met Office Hadley             18.7c.        Anomaly       5.9c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                          17.25c       Anomaly       3.10c

 Netweather                      17.6c         Anomaly       0.43c

Canvey Island                   18.3c         Anomaly       0.26c

Cheadle Hulme                  19.8c         Anomaly      4.44c

Clevedon Weather              17.4c         Anomaly      0.96c

Mount Sorrel                      17.5c        Anomaly       2.2c

Mansfield Woodhouse          15.8c        Anomaly       0.45c

Peasedown St John              17.7c.      Anomaly       1.3c.

Mean Temperature Of  My 10 Watched Stations     17.19c.        

Met Office Hadley             18.7c.        Anomaly       5.9c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                          17.25c       Anomaly       3.10c

 Netweather                      17.6c         Anomaly       0.43c

Canvey Island                   18.3c         Anomaly       0.26c

Cheadle Hulme                  19.8c         Anomaly      4.44c

Clevedon Weather              17.4c         Anomaly      0.96c

Mount Sorrel                      17.5c        Anomaly       2.2c

Mansfield Woodhouse          15.8c        Anomaly       0.45c

Peasedown St John              17.7c.      Anomaly       1.3c.

 

Mean Temperature Of  My 10 Watched Stations     17.19c.        

Well - June has kicked off well.

Met Office  Hadley          18.1c        Anomaly      5.2c  Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                        17.35c      Anomaly      3.20c

Netweather                     17.47c      Anomaly      3.38c

Canvey Island                18.1c        Anomaly      0.06c

Cheadle Hulme               18.3c       Anomaly      2.94c

Clevedon Weather         17.4c       Anomaly       0.96c

Mansfield Woodhouse  17.1c      Anomaly      2.45c

Peasedown St John  18.9c.     Anomaly   2.53c.

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations     19.1c.     

 Met Office Hadley           18.0c       Anomaly       4.9c Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                        17.60c      Anomaly      3.45c

Netweather                     17.78c      Anomaly      3.69c

Canvey Island                17.9c      Anomaly      0.14c

Cheadle Hulme              18.4c      Anomaly       3.04c

Clevedon Weather          18.6c     Anomaly       2.16c

Mount Sorrel                  17.07c    Anomaly       2.28c

Mansfield Woodhouse    17.3c     Anomaly       2.5c

Peasedown St John      19.4c     Anomaly      3.02c.  

Mean  Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations  17.58c

No Update from Met Office Hadley  Yet...

Metcheck                 16.63c.      Anomaly      2.48c.

Netweather              17.29c.      Anomaly      3.2c.

Alton                       18.0c         Anomlay       0.47c

Canvey Island              17.1c         Anomaly     0.94c

Cheadle Hulme             18.0c        Anomaly      2.64c

Clevedon Weather         18.6c        Anomaly      2.16c

Darwen                     16.1c        Anomaly      0.24c

Hexam                      15.9c        Anomaly      0.04

Mount Sorrel              16.4c       Anomaly       0.92c   

Mansfield Woodhouse   16.1c        Anomaly        0.75c

Peasedown St John       18.5c.       Anomaly       2.15c

Treviskey Redruth        15.1c         Anomaly      -0.2c.

Mean Temperature  Of My 10 Watched Stations  16.99c.            

Met Office Hadley         17.7c.       Anomaly   4.5c. Provisional to 4th.

Met Office Hadley             17.1c         Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                          15.91c       Anomaly       1.97c

Netweather                       16.58c       Anomaly        2.49c

Canvey Island                  16.0c         Anomaly      -2.04c   5year ave. 18.04c.

Cheadle Hulme                 17.6c         Anomaly       2.24c

Clevedon Weather             17.8c         Anomaly       1.36c

Mount Sorrel                     15.6c         Anomaly       0.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse         15.6c        Anomaly        0.12c

Peasedown St John             17.5c       Anomaly         0.25c 

My Mean Average of  My Watched 10 Stations   16.24c.                  

Met Office Hadley            16.6c.         Anomaly       3.3c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         15.64c        Anomaly       1.49c

Netweather                      16.18c        Anomaly       2.09c

Alton                              16.26c.       Anomaly       1.33c

Canvey Island                 16.3c          Anomaly       -1.73c

Darwen                          16.1c          Anomaly       0.24c

Mansfield woodhouse     15.2c          Anomaly        0.15c

Peasedown St John       17.7c.        Anomaly         2.35c.

My Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations   16.34c.      

Met Office Hadley            16.6c.         Anomaly       3.3c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         15.64c        Anomaly       1.49c

Netweather                      16.18c        Anomaly       2.09c

Alton                              16.26c.       Anomaly       1.33c

Canvey Island                 16.3c          Anomaly       -1.73c

Darwen                          16.1c          Anomaly       0.24c

Mansfield woodhouse     15.2c          Anomaly        0.15c

Peasedown St John       17.7c.        Anomaly         2.35c.

 

My Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations   16.34c.      

Cheers Art; interesting to see how quickly a CET can slip down in the first week of a month.

 

Cheers Art; interesting to see how quickly a CET can slip down in the first week of a month.

16.6C for the first six days of June is impressive though. If the second half of June is warm or very warm, we may have a very interesting final figure for June. 

Met Office Hadley           16.3c         Anomaly       3.0c.   Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                        15.54c       Anomaly       1.39c

Netweather                     16.03c       Anomaly       1.94c

Alton                             16.2c         Anomaly       1.33c

Canvey Island                16.4c         Anomaly        -1.64c

Cheadle Hulme               17.1c        Anomaly        1.74c

Clevedon Weather           17.5c        Anomaly        1.06c

Darwen                          16.0c        Anomaly         0.4c

Hexam                           16.2c        Anomaly         1.34c

Mount Sorrel                   15.7c        Anomaly         0.22c

Mansfield Woodhouse     15.2c        Anomaly         0.15c

Peasedown St John        17.3c       Anomaly         0.96c

Treviskey Redruth          15.3c.       Anomaly.         0.0c.

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations  16.29c.         

The competition intensifies...  Nice work GW!   The June predictions will be of interest.. 

Darren running away with it, at the moment.