In a warm early summer, seems odd to be putting the heating on for a while tonight. Brrrr. might say 16, but it feels not too nice.

FWIW, the raw GFS 12z numbers suggest a finishing CET about the same as we have now. 

The preceding couple of runs looked notably cooler, though, and as of day 10, the ECM 12z doesn't look to have set up such a high run of temps for the final few days, though it does look warm away from eastern coasts (wait... another easterly, really?).

Changed the date now.  All that done before visitors arrived with TWO bottles.....

Met Office Hadley         15.8c.         Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      15.29c.       Anomaly       1.14c.

Netweather                   15.82c        Anomaly       1.73c

Canvey Island              16.5c          Anomaly        0.12c

Darwen                        17.3c         Anomaly        1.44c

Mansfield Woodhouse  15.4c         Anomaly          0.05c

Peasedown St John     17.1c.        Anomaly          0.75c.

Mean Of 10 Stations  16.35c. 

Okay... so that ECM (summer edition)... it's hard to get a good estimate without using up a lot of time, as the one site showing the temps doesn't give much detail without looking on a county basis which would take ages - but I've had a crack at it.

The cool night-day combo Thu (means of around 9*C and 16*C for min and max) and cool night on Fri (mean minimum around 8*C but with following day surprisingly warm at 20*C mean maximum) knock around 0.3*C off the CET. 

Saturday sees similar temps to Friday - which actually makes it surprisingly 'tame' to offset the surprisingly warm preceding day - but the CET doesn't suffer much; about 0.05*C lost.

After one last night just about averaging in the single digits, Sunday daytime sees the warmth kick off, with about a 23 mean maximum. The CET edges up almost immeasurably.

Monday builds on this warmth albeit mainly by day, with a mean minimum in the low double digits but a mean maximum in the mid-20s. The CET gains around 0.1*C.

It then just keeps getting hotter, with min-max estimates of:

Tue 12-14*C, 26-28*C

Wed 15-17*C, 28-31*C

Thu 15-18*C, 30-33*C

- all of which sees the CET estimate climb by around 0.7*C, a large gain for so late in the month. With the pattern looking set for another hot day or two to see out the month, a finishing number in the high 16s would be likely.

Down here, the monthly mean falls from 17.0*C to 16.6*C as a result of those few cooler nights and days, but then takes flight and soars, reaching 17.3*C by the end of 28th - placing it around 2*C above the LTA and at a level not seen for any full-month June mean so far this Century. In fact it would beat last year's record-setting figure by half a degree Celsius, having also set a record mean minimum (again beating out last year by a substantial margin; 12.0*C v. 11.7*C) and a record mean maximum (22.5*C, just edging out 2010's 22.4*C).

Of course, this is the most extreme run we've seen so far since the idea of a hot spell emerged, and GFS is a lot cooler (but still turning warm, then very warm) - but I thought it worth noting these details down so that in the more likely event that things aren't quite so toasty, we can at least remember the run fondly* for the picture it painted .

(* unless you're not a fan of the heat)

Interesting times!

Met office Hadley          15.8c.       Anomaly      2.0c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                      15.43c      Anomaly       1.29c

Netweather                   15.92c      Anomaly        1.83c

Canvey Island             16.8c        Anomaly       0.18c

Clevedon Weather       17.5c        Anomaly       1.06c

Mansfield Woodhouse   15.6c      Anomaly      0.42c

Peasedown St John     17.1c.    Anomaly      0.75c.

Mean Of  10 Stations    16.37c.       

Well then.

The GFS 00z took a leap toward ECM's take on the outlook and gave me a rough final CET estimate of 16.3 to 16.7*, which I believe is around 2*C above the long-term average.

The GFS 06z has built on that with slightly better ridge positioning for next Wednesday onward, and as a result, despite being ever so slightly cooler prior to that point, it gives me a final CET estimate of 16.7 to 16.9*C - yes that's very nearly into the 17s! 

There's impressive consistency between the two runs, and the ECM 00z was very similar to yesterday's 12z, so this really is a strong signal for June to finish second only to the legendary 1976 (unless I'm missing some other contenders?).

Having said that, I'm keeping an eye on the flat section of jet being predicted to secure the cut-off low staying west of Iberia on Sunday, as those have a habit of turning out more 'wiggly' which makes them less effective at keeping cut-off lows from lifting out N or NNE.

Certainly be the best since 76, SC; but the HADcet series makes 76 about 5th, the warmest (and the latest other) being 1846. As a nice coincidental anecdote, 4 of the 5 warmest end in a 6! Worth noting there are another 4 above 16.5, but 16s in June are rare, the most recent being last year.

Top Ten Junes by descending position from the Hadley CET series:

1) 18.2  1846

2) 18.0  1676

3) 17.3  1826

4) 17.1  1822

5) 17.0  1976

6) 16.9  1762, 1798

8) 16.8  1858

9) 16.6  1775

10) 16.4  1726, 1728, 1818, 1940, 1970.

So for June 2018 to get into the 'Top Ten' then it would need to reach at least 16.4 to gain the joint tenth position with five other summers.

Clearly a very warm June, with say anything 16.4 or over is very infrequent, as it has only happened fourteen times since 1659. It will be very interesting to see where June 2018 finally ends up!

Good information.  As things stand something in the region of 16.5 is not an unreasonable guess, but the output is volatile.

Hadley 15.9C  (+2.0C deviation from norm); provisional to 19th.

Met Office Hadley          15.9c.      Anomaly       2.0c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                       15.61c     Anomaly        1.47c

Netweather                     16.06c    Anomaly         1.96c

Darwen                         17.4c      Anomaly        1.54c

Hexam                          15.1c      Anomaly        0.56c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.8c      Anomaly        0.32c

Peasedown St John       17.3c.    Anomaly       0.95c.

Mean Of 10 Stations.  16,46c.       

Wondered if we might get to 17.0C But to lift it by 1.1C in 10 days is a hard ask.

Its looking very toasty next week with highs of 28c being forcast for this time next week so this June could end up around 16.5c to 17c yet.

One thing is for sure it will be one of the driest on record,imby we have had less than 2mm of rain all month and probably wont get a drop more.

Rainfall is amazingly low. I don't think I've had more than one light shower this whole month.

There won't be any more next week - that's almost certain.

Met Office Hadley           16.0c.      Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                        15.59      Anomaly      1.44c

Netweather                     16.14c    Anomaly       2.25c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.6c      Anomaly        0.25c

Peasedown St John       17.8c      Anomaly        0.95c.

10 Station mean    16.22c.    

Met Office Hadley         15.9c.     Anomaly       1.9c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      15.49c    Anomaly        1.34c

Netweather                   16.04c    Anomaly         1.95c

Clevedon Weather        17.5c      Anomaly       1.06c

Hexam                        14.6c      Anomaly       0.06c

Mansfield Woodhouse  15.5c     Anomaly     0.15c

Peasedown St John    17.1c.      Anomaly     0.75c.     

10 Station Mean  16.22c.

An estimate of the CET mean for each day of the remainder of June is as follows:

23rd 13.9C

24th 15.6C

25th 18.2C

26th 19.9C

27th 19.4C

28th 19.9C

29th 19.4C

30th 19.6C

Assuming the CET is currently around 15.9C up to yesterday and with today's CET around 13.1C due to a cool start this morning that would give a final CET of around 16.4C. The figures above may be a little conservative but equally we usually have a downward adjustment from the provisional Hadley figures. 

So I would say that something around 16.4 - 16.5C looks most likely as a final CET for June at the moment.

The smallest deviation from the 1981-2010 mean this year so far was 0.82C in January. Every other month has been at least 1.3C above or below the mean. There has been nothing average about 2018 so far.

A 16.4 - 16.5C finish for June would be almost exactly 2C above the 1981-2010 mean which would be the biggest anomaly so far this year.

Met Office Hadley        15.8c.     Anomaly      1.8c.

Metcheck                     15.47c    Anomaly      1.32c

Netweather                  15.96c    Anomaly      1.87c

Cheadle Hulme            16.4c      Anomaly       0.04c

Clevedon Weather       17.4c      Anomaly       0.96c

Mansfield Woodhouse  15.6c      Anomaly       0.25c

Peasedown St John  17.1c.     Anomaly       0.75c.

10 Station Mean    16.26c.   

It can hold at this for my liking! 

Met Office Hadley         15.7c.      Anomaly       1.8c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                      15.45c     Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                   15.95c     Anomaly       1.86c

Alton                           16.3c       Anomaly       1.23c

Canvey Island              16.9c       Anomaly       0.28c

Cheadle Hulme             16.3c      Anomaly        -0.94c

Clevedon Weather         17.5c     Anomaly         1.06c

Darwen                        16.9c     Anomaly         1.04c

Hexam                         14.6c     Anomaly         0.06c

Mount Sorrel                15.8c      Anomaly         0.32c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.5c      Anomaly         0.25c

Peasedown St John        17.2c     Anomaly         0.85c

Treviskey Redruth          15.3c.    Anomaly         0.0c.

10 Station Mean   16.23c.