October: Drier and warmer than average Forecast issued 01/10/2026 Temperature Above average Precipitation Below average 1/10 to 7/10 Often dry in the south, although some rain is possible. In the north and particularly the north west it will be more mixed, with showers, longer outbreaks of rain and strong winds. Temperatures across the UK as a whole are expected to be above the average and it could still be warm at times in the south. Towards the end of the week showery rain accompanied by cooler conditions could spread southwards. 8/10 to 14/10 Often settled in the south and much of western Britain. In the north there is a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds. Showery rain could affect eastern Britain at times too. Temperatures close to the norm, with the potential for some rather cold nights, which at this time of the year would lead to a risk of frost in places. 15/10 to 31/10 Mixed over the period as a whole [Forecast confidence is very low] All areas could see wet spells, but rain continues to be more likely in the north. Strong winds are also possible at times. Over the second half of the month as a whole, temperatures are expected to be above average in the south but closer to it in the north. . Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts. How accurate are forecasts for the month ahead? Monthly forecasts offer some skill but vary in reliability depending on several factors: Focus on Trends, Not Specifics Monthly forecasts typically provide information about expected temperature and precipitation trends relative to long-term averages. For example, they might indicate whether a month is likely to be warmer or wetter than usual. Decreasing Accuracy Over Time Monthly weather forecasts have much lower accuracy compared to short-range forecasts, with skill levels generally decreasing sharply after 7 days. They're most useful for identifying broad temperature and precipitation trends relative to seasonal averages rather than specific day-to-day conditions.