Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Hot conditions are expected to develop on Monday and Tuesday. What will happen during the middle and second half of the week as cooler air tries to return from the west?
The Spanish Plume weather pattern which develops early next week doesn't look like lasting long. Temperatures probably peak on Tuesday or Wednesday with values over 30C (86F) possible in the south. In the last couple of the days the GEFS ensemble model has been suggesting a thundery breakdown and quite a quick transition back to a cooler westerly airstream. The latest data is more nuanced and it's possible that the southern half of the UK could stay warm during the second half of next week.
The chart below is for 18:00, Friday 19th August and shows surface pressure as well as 850hPa temperatures. It's not a settled picture across the UK but the thing to note is that the warm air mass hasn't really been flushed away from the south east and 850hPa temperatures over much of England are still above +10C. This means that down at the surface values could reach the mid 20Cs in sunny spells. Still warm.
The postage stamp plots are a way of quickly showing forecast data from all of the individual GEFS ensemble runs for a particular time. The chart below is for 18:00, Friday 19th August. The thing to note is that in the south quite a lot of the stamps have temperatures in the mid or even high 20Cs.
The postage stamp plots are available on the TWO chart viewer and update every 6 hours. It's worth keeping an eye on these in the coming days to see whether they continue tilting towards warmer conditions lasting for much of next week in the south or revert to a cooler and more changeable pattern for all regions. My guess is we'll see the transition to more changeable conditions in the south watered down farther.
Temperatures early next week could climb above 30C (86F) in the south. A breakdown of sorts continues to be expected through mid-week but this could be less marked than looked likely. The south may hang on to warmer conditions and there is a chance of high pressure reestablishing itself to bring more dry and fine weather. A changeable Atlantic based pattern is more likely to dominate proceedings over the northern half of the UK.
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