14 day UK: Heatwave conditions

Issued Sunday 28th June 2015

Week 1

First heatwave of the summer develops.

Monday: Dry and warm with sunny spells across England and Wales. Cloudier in Scotland and Northern Ireland with the risk of rain at times which could become heavy in the north west late in the day. Top temperatures in the south east a warm 25C (77F). 

Tuesday: Dry with sunny spells in most regions. Very warm or even hot with temperatures ranging from about 25C (77F) in eastern Scotland to 30C (86F) in southern England. Cloudier and cooler in the north west with a risk of rain.

Wednesday: An unusually hot day over southern and central regions with temperatures in the south east possibly reaching 35C (95F) if cloud cover holds back. Very warm in the north too. Most places should remain dry with sunny periods but scattered thunderstorms probably break out and locally these could be severe bringing a risk of flash flooding.

Thursday: Thunderstorms perhaps clearing from the east to leave a dry day with variable amounts of cloud. Very warm or hot in the east but cooler in the west. NOTE: Forecast confidence on the details is low.

Friday, Saturday: Very warm or hot in England and Wales with maximum temperatures probably above 30C (86F). Thunderstorms could develop quite widely but for many places there should be a lot of dry and sunny weather. Cooler in the north. NOTE: Forecast confidence on the details is low.

Sunday: Very warm in the south east with sunny spells. Cooler elsewhere with showers perhaps becoming widespread and heavy. NOTE: Forecast confidence on the details is low.

Forecast confidence is high early on but the details for the second half of the week are very uncertain.

 

 

Week 2

Mostly settled in the south.

The favoured outcome is for mostly settled weather in southern and eastern counties. Temperatures generally remain above average with the possibility of very warm or hot spells. In the north and west a more changeable picture is probable with showers or longer periods of rain and temperatures close to the July average.

NOTE: There has been a lot of uncertainty about the medium term outlook recently. Check the site homepage and local place or postcode forecasts for the latest prospects.

Forecast confidence is low.

Overview

During the first week high pressure is expected to become centred over the near continent and this in conjunction with a slow moving area of low pressure to the west will lead to the development of a Spanish Plume weather pattern. The air being drawn up from southern Europe is likely to be exceptionally hot and this has the potential to bring extreme heat to the UK. 

Through the second week low pressure could have more influence on the weather in the west. High pressure probably hangs on in the east and south.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

The first week could see it becoming hot across England and Wales with temperatures climbing to about 30C (86F) and a chance of 35C (95F) being clocked in the south. The details are uncertain but the potential for extreme heat exists.

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