Chilly at the start of the forecast week with showers developing widely across England and Wales. Through the bank holiday weekend there should be a good deal of dry weather with showers becoming increasingly isolated. Temperatures will recover from the very low levels at the start of the week. Through bank holiday Monday and the rest of the week it is expected to become unsettled once again with further showers or longer spells of rain. The initial batch of rain is likely to push in from the west on bank holiday Monday, but there is uncertainty about the timing of this. With the return of unsettled weather temperatures on the whole will probably remain below the seasonal average. Confidence on the general forecast pattern is moderately high.
Mixed weather is expected. In the south and east it could be rather unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain at times during the week. In the north and west there is a better chance of drier and brighter weather, although later in the period cloud and rain could return from the Atlantic. Temperatures are expected to be close to the seasonal average in the west, but slightly below in the east.
The general theme is expected to be high pressure to the west with low pressure areas over the UK or further east in the near continent. This means a mostly unsettled picture with the best of the drier weather probably in northern and western regions. During the second week of the forecast period high pressure may exert a greater influence on the weather across all regions.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
Points of note
Bank holiday weekend weather are mixed, but reasonable in places. Rain is expected to push in from the west on Monday but there are question marks about the timing of this. It's looking as though there is a risk of rain at times, especially in the east. Temperatures could be on the low side too for late May. Have you taken a look at our chart viewer page
? This shows output from the GFS, GEFS, ECM and WW3 computer models as well as the Met Office fax charts and provides great support for tablet computers such as the iPad.