UK outlook issued Wednesday 22nd February 2017
Unsettled. Stormy start and then mostly unsettled.
Thursday: Storm Doris will bring severe weather to parts of the UK. During the morning and early afternoon wind gusts of up to 85mph are expected in northern Wales, northern central England and northern England. Winds gradually become lighter from the west. Early in the day a band of heavy rain clears southeastwards with brighter conditions following on behind it. In the north of the UK outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow are likely. Over the mountains heavy falls of snow are expected and even at lower levels accumulations are possible in places. Mild in the south but cold in the north.
Friday: All regions have bright spells but there will be scattered showers, and in the north these could be wintry. During the second half of the day wet and windy weather returns to the north west and over high ground in Scotland a period of snow is likely. Feeling quite cold.
Saturday: Rain spreads southeastwards with clearer conditions following into the north west. The rain is expected to be heavy at times, but it may struggle to reach the south eastern corner. Early in the day severe gales are possible in the north west but they ease in the afternoon. In the south the opposite happens with winds strengthening. Mild.
Sunday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect southern counties early in the day but the afternoon should bring some bright spells. Elsewhere a dry start is forecast but wet and windy weather returns from the west in the afternoon. Mild.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Predominantly unsettled weather continues and all regions have showers or longer periods of rain. After a mild start it probably becomes colder, and in northern regions snow is possible over high ground and perhaps down to low levels on occasion.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high throughout the week.
Unsettled, especially in the north.
Southern and central regions have a reasonable amount of dry weather but there is a risk of some rain. In the north it will be more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, and at times it could be cold enough for hill snow. Temperatures in the south are forecast to be mostly close to average but colder incursions remain probable in the north.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate.
At the start of the period the core of Storm Doris pushes eastwards across the north of the UK. As it clears, polar maritime air pushes southeastwards for a short time, but during the weekend a milder air mass returns. Low pressure areas are expected to stay dominant for the rest of the week.
Through the second week the UK is expected to remain under an Atlantic flow but pressure may rise to the north. This could lead to colder air pushing into the north at times but the southern half of the UK is expected to remain under a westerly flow.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.
Storm Doris brings severe weather to large parts of the UK at the start of the forecast period. After this it remains mostly unsettled.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the HIRLAM, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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