14 day UK: Unsettled and chilly

Issued Sunday 7th February 2016

Week 1

Very unsettled.

Monday: Storm Imogen brings very windy conditions across England and Wales and during the morning severe gales are expected in southern counties. There will also be heavy showers which are likely to become persistent at times and fall as snow over the Welsh mountains and perhaps over high ground in northern England and Northern Ireland. Scotland has a calmer day with fewer showers.  

Tuesday: Wet weather may push eastwards across southern counties and there is a low to moderate chance of rain turning to sleet or even wet snow over high ground for a time. Central areas should have a mostly dry and bright day. Northern regions have a mix of sunshine and wintry showers, accumulations of snow are possible over high ground. Rather cold.

Wednesday, Thursday: Quite cold in the north with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. Scattered showers are expected in southern and central regions too but here there should be a good deal of dry weather. Patchy nighttime frost.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Wet weather is expected to spread northeastwards. In southern counties rain is likely but in central and northern regions a period of snow is possible, especially over high ground. Quite cold in the north but becoming milder in the south. 

Forecast confidence is high early in the period but falls to moderate later on.

 

 

Week 2

Mixed.

Unsettled weather continues bringing the likelihood of showers and more prolonged periods of rain, as well as strong winds, to all regions. The north may be rather cold during the first half of the week with a risk of snow falling to lower levels on occasion but temperatures in the south are forecast to be close to the mid February. Milder conditions may develop during the second half of the week.

Forecast confidence is low to moderate.

Overview

An Atlantic based pattern persists for much of the forecast period but colder incursions are expected at times. Confidence in developments during the first week is quite low and there is the potential for wintry conditions especially, but not only, in northern regions. During the second week milder conditions may develop.

 

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

At the start of the forecast period Storm Imogen will bring severe gales to southern counties. After this there is a chance of colder conditions, particularly in the north where there may be some snow.

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