UK outlook issued Thursday 27th October 2016
Friday: Patchy outbreaks of rain affect northern England but these become lighter through the course of the day. In southern counties as well as Scotland and Northern Ireland it should be mostly dry with bright spells. Very mild in southern and central areas but cooler in the north.
Saturday, Sunday: Most of the UK has dry weather and it will be very mild or even quite warm during the days. In the south temperatures could reach 20C (68F) during bright spells but nighttime fog is likely in places. During Sunday afternoon wet and windy weather probably returns to the far north west.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: A dry and mild start to the period is expected in southern and central regions. During Tuesday patchy outbreaks of rain are expected to spread southwards and be followed by colder air. On Wednesday and Thursday scattered showers are likely but elsewhere it should be mostly dry. Nights will be colder with an increasing risk of frost.
Forecast confidence is high early in the period but becomes quite low towards the end.
Early in the period outbreaks of rain are expected to push southwards with a mix of sunshine and showers following. Over high ground in the north the showers probably fall as sleet or snow and possibly become wintry even at low levels. Nighttime frosts could be quite widespread.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
At the start of the forecast period high pressure builds northwards across the UK and pulls up warm air from the southwest. During the second half of the week colder air returns from the northwest as high pressure becomes centred to the west of the UK.
Through the second week a predominantly northerly flow is expected across the UK. Towards the end of the period high pressure probably builds in closer to the UK reducing the chance of showers.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
After a very mild start temperatures take a tumble. The risk of nighttime frosts probably becomes quite widespread and over high ground in the north showers could fall as sleet or snow.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the HIRLAM, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Check the latest local weather forecasts using the place of postcode selector near the top of this page. Links below are to UK discussion and long range outlooks on the site.
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