14 day UK: Dry start then unsettled

Issued Sunday 24th May 2015

Week 1

Becoming quite unsettled after a mostly dry start.

Bank Holiday Monday: Sunshine and scattered showers, these mostly in the north east with many places having a dry day. Temperatures disappointing for late May with maximum values about 17C (63F) in the south west.

Tuesday, Wednesday: Often dry in the south with variable amounts of cloud. In the north west there is a risk of rain on Tuesday. Later on Wednesday strengthening winds bring cloud and rain back into the north and west. The rain pushes eastwards overnight.

Thursday: Outbreaks of persistent rain clear eastwards to leave all of the country with clearer spells and blustery showers. These are likely to be heavy and thundery at times.  Windy particularly in the north where gales are possible. Cool for late May although in the south eastern corner temperatures may not be too far from the average.

Friday: Cool and showery conditions continue. The showers are likely to be widespread and heavy, bringing the possibility of hail and thunder. Blustery winds.

Saturday, Sunday: Possibly a dry start in the south but showers continue in the north. Outbreaks of rain are expected to return from the west and then push eastwards across all regions during this period, but the timing is uncertain.

Forecast confidence is high to moderate.

 

 

Week 2

Probably quite changeable.

The early part of the week is forecast to be generally changeable with showers. Drier and warmer spells are more probable in the south and west with rainfall totals higher in the north and west. Temperatures close to the seasonal average in the south and slightly below in the north.

The favoured outcome is for drier and warmer weather to develop over southern regions with the north remaining more changeable.  However, there is a significant chance of it remaining quite changeable over all regions.

Forecast confidence is low.

Overview

High pressure centred to the southwest of the UK will bring quite a lot of dry weather at the start of the forecast period. The second half of the first week sees high pressure declining and cooler air from the northwest pushing down across the UK. Towards the end of the week another low pressure system moves in from the west.

A predominantly westerly pattern is favoured to persist through the first half of the second week. During the second half of the week high pressure is expected to build close to the UK but the details of its positioning are uncertain.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

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