14 day UK: Improving later on

Issued Sunday 26th July 2015

Week 1

Changeable.

Monday: Outbreaks of rain continue in northern regions. In the south showers are expected with brighter spells at times. Windy in the south with gales in coastal counties. Very chilly in the north with maximum temperatures in parts of Scotland not much above 10C (50F). Warmer in the south with maximum temperatures around 20C (68F) but this is below average for late July.

Tuesday: In central and northern areas further outbreaks of rain are expected with the south having a mix of sunshine and showers. Blustery in the south but winds generally easing off. Very cool in the north and in all areas temperatures remain below the late July average.

Wednesday, Thursday: Sunny spells and showers. During this period the showers should become less frequent and lighter but temperatures remain on the low side for the time of year. Very cool nights with a risk of ground frost in sheltered northern rural locations.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday: A north west to south east split is forecast. The north west remains changeable with an ongoing risk of showers or more persistent periods of rain and disappointing temperatures. Drier in the south east with rising temperatures and a possibility of it becoming very warm.

Forecast confidence is high early on but moderate to low later on.

 

 

Week 2

Mixed.

The favoured outcome is for mixed weather during the first half of the week. In the south and south east it could be mostly dry and very warm but the north west remains cooler and more changeable. During the second half of the week the south is expected to be quite settled and rather warm but perhaps still changeable and cooler in the north.

NOTE: There continues to be low confidence in the medium term outlook recently. Check the site homepage and local place or postcode forecasts for the latest prospects.

Forecast confidence is very low.

Overview

During the first few days low pressure gradually pulls away eastwards leaving the UK under a chilly northerly air stream. Through the second half of the week a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south west.

By the end of the first week and through the second week there is much uncertainty. Another low pressure system is likely to gradually push in from Atlantic and bring changeable conditions to the north west. This may then pull away northeastwards with high pressure becoming increasingly influential for the rest of the period. However, forecast confidence is very low and medium range computer models are not set on this outcome.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

Cool with showers or persistent outbreaks of rain during the early part of the forecast period. An improvement is expected towards the back-end of the first week and week 2 currently looks more promising.

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