Issued Sunday 11th October 2015
MondayA chilly start with a ground frost in parts of the north and west. Rain in Scotland gradually pushes southeastwards through the day but it becomes lighter and patchier before fading away. Sunny spells develop to the north and south of the rain. Quite cool for mid October.Tuesday, Wednesday: Central and western areas have mostly dry weather and variable amounts of cloud, although in the north west there is a risk of patchy rain. In the east thicker cloud brings the likelihood of showers and these perhaps become heavier in the south east on Wednesday. Temperatures generally below average and an easterly breeze in the south adds to the chill. Nighttime ground frosts are likely, especially in the north and west. Local air frosts are possible. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: On Thursday rain pushes push southeastwards but becomes light and patchy before fading away completely. The rest of the period may bring scattered showers but it is expected to be mostly dry. There should be a reasonable amount of sunshine but also cloudier skies at times. Remaining quite chilly for the time of year.
Forecast confidence is moderate to high throughout the period.
Dry conditions are probable in the west and north during the first half of the week. In the south and east there is a greater risk of showers or perhaps more persistent spells of rain. The second half of the week brings an increasing risk of showers to northern regions and over high ground in the north these could fall as sleet or snow. In the south it should be mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud. Temperatures on the low side, and in areas where clear periods form, the nights could bring frost and fog.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
Through the period the Atlantic is expected to remain quite subdued with high pressure dominating the weather across the UK for much of the time. Early in the period high pressure will be located to the north east of the UK but later during the first week and through the second week it becomes centred in the North Atlantic. This could allow cold air to spread down from the Arctic and bring an early taste of winter to the north.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
A good deal of settled weather is forecast. Cloud amounts are likely to vary and on the whole temperatures are forecast to be below average with overnight frosts perhaps becoming quite widespread. The second week may bring an early Arctic blast to northern regions.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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