14 day UK: Very wintry

The 14 day UK weather forecast is issued twice weekly. Update Thursday 02nd February 2012

Week 1
Very cold but dry conditions for most regions early in the period, although in eastern counties there will be a risk of snow showers which could give accumulations of several cms in places. Through the weekend cloud with rain, sleet and snow will gradually push east across the country. Confidence on the details is very low, but it looks as though significant snowfall is possible, especially in central and eastern parts. In the west rain is more likely. During Sunday the rain, sleet and snow should gradually fade away in the east and south east, but it will still be cold. During the rest of the week the eastern extent of milder conditions is uncertain, so temperatures are expected to be lowest in the east, and to remain below average. In the west temperatures are likely to be closer to the seasonal average. Some further rain, sleet or snow is possible, with the greatest chance of snow in the east, and a progressively higher chance of rain further west.  

Week 2
A change to more mobile and and less cold weather is expected for a time with a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain on low ground, but possibly still wintry over high ground. Confidence on the evolution is low, but cold air will probably still not be too far away to the east, and this could possibly still be affecting eastern Britain. There is also a chance of a north westerly flow developing which would bring colder conditions to Scotland and the north, and close to average temperatures further south. Forecast confidence is very low.

Overview
The general picture is during the early part of the forecast period is for weather fronts to push in from the west meeting the very cold air over Britain. The eastern extent of the mild push is very uncertain and this will have a big impact on the weather in Britain. During the second week confidence is low, but the cold pool to the east should have decayed, and there may be more mobility in the weather patterns. Confidence on the evolution later on is low. 
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.

Points of note
Significant snowfall is possible during the first weekend of the forecast, but confidence on the details is low, and some places especially in the west may see rain or sleet instead. A blocking area of high pressure will be pushing very cold air west across Britain during the first week, and this does bring the risk of some sleet or snow. Don't forget our new GFS chart viewer gives you access to all the latest data which is updated every 6 hours, and now includes a great NEW precipitation type chart which will help to identify when snow is likely.