Issued Sunday 23rd November 2014
A very mixed week is expected with low confidence in the details later on.
Monday: A cold start with a patchy frost in mostly in central and western regions. Most of the UK should have a dry day with sunny spells at times although patchy rain could return to the north west late in the day. Feeling colder than recently with temperatures ranging from about 6C (42F) t0 8C (46F).
Tuesday: A cold start with a patchy frost is expected in much of the country. Cloudier in the north west with mostly light outbreaks of rain. During the day rain is likely to develop in southern regions and gradually push northwards. Feeling chilly in the wet weather.
Wednesday: Further outbreaks of rain are expected in central and eastern regions but it should be drier in the west. The rain in the east probably clearing in the afternoon. Temperatures close to average in the south but still quite chilly in the north.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Wet and windy weather is expected to move in from the west early on. The rain will gradually push further east but perhaps become lighter and patchier. Milder with winds from a south or south westerly direction.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
During the first half of the week unsettled conditions are expected in all regions with rain at times. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.
The second half of the week is expected to remain quite unsettled, especially in the west. Drier spells are more probable in the east. Temperatures generally close to average.
Note: A more settled spell is considered a possible outcome during week 2, but on balance the more unsettled picture is currently favoured.
Forecast confidence is low through this period.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a mostly dry start to the week but during Tuesday and Wednesday low pressure is expected to move up from the south. Uncertainty about developments increases during the second half of the week, but weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic are expected to slow down over the UK due to high pressure over the continent.
During the second week a predominantly westerly flow is expected over the UK with weather fronts bringing unsettled spells. However, there is chance of high pressure building more strongly towards the UK keeping things more settled in southern and central regions.
The chance of significantly colder spell during the next two weeks is considered very low, but early in the period temperatures will be lower than recently bringing the risk of overnight frost.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
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