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Issued Sunday 31st August 2014
Week 1High pressure is set to bring a lot of fine and warm weather.
Monday: A band of cloud and rain will push south during the morning with dry and bright conditions following on behind. In southern parts the area of rain probably fragmenting and becoming very patchy with sunny spells developing. Top temperatures close to 22C (72F) in central regions.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday: Fine and warm weather for most of the UK through the period with sunny periods, but also patchy cloud. Temperatures in southern and central regions into low to mid 20sC, possibly nudging 26C (78F) in a few locations. Perhaps some mostly light showery rain in the far north west at times.
Weekend: Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue for much of the UK, but probably cloudier than recent days. More of a northerly component to the wind direction is expected so it is likely to be less warm, and there may be some showery rain in the north.
Forecast confidence is high through the period.
During the early part of the week the mostly dry spell is expected to continue. Temperatures should be close to or a little above the seasonal average.
The middle and latter part of the week could see a transition to more changeable conditions with an increasing risk of showery rain. Temperatures close to the mid September average.
Forecast confidence is moderate to low through this period.
OverviewThrough the first week high pressure is expected to dominate the weather across the UK. The positioning of the high pressure isn't expected to favour the development of a Spanish Plume, so 850hPa level temperatures probably restricted to about +10C making for warm but not hot conditions down at the ground.
Through the second week of the forecast period there are suggestions of change in the computer models, but little consistency in a favoured pattern. High pressure could persist close to the UK, but on balance a transition to more unsettled conditions is considered a slightly probable.
Confidence on developments through the second week is very low.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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