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Issued Sunday 14th September 2014
Increasingly warm conditions are expected to push up from the south during the week. There will be a greater risk of showery rain than recently, but plenty of dry and sunny spells too.
Monday, Tuesday: Dry for most of the UK with variable amounts of cloud and just a few scattered showers, but cloudier in the north east with outbreaks of rain at times. In southern and central regions when the sun breaks it will feel warm with top temperatures close to 22C (72F). Cooler in the north.
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday: Becoming very warm from the south with top temperatures close to 26C (78F) in the south. A few scattered but hefty and perhaps thundery downpours could develop, but many places are likely to remain dry with sunny periods. Eastern parts of Scotland could remain cloudier.
Saturday, Sunday: Mostly dry conditions with sunny spells are expected, although perhaps cloudier in northern regions with a risk of patchy rain. Temperatures mostly above average still, but probably lower slightly than in recent days.
Forecast confidence is high.
During the first half of the week mostly dry and fine weather is expected over all of the UK. Temperatures still above average in southern and central regions but close to average in the north.
The second half of the week could bring an increasing chance of showers or longer spells of rain into western regions. Probably remaining drier and brighter in the south east. Temperatures remaining above average especially in the south.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate through this period.
OverviewThrough the first week high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure to the south west will combine to pull up increasingly warm continental air across the UK. The air mass looks notably warm for the second half of September and CAPE and LI values have hinted at the potential for thundery downpours.
By the end of the first week and early in the second week high pressure is expected to build back in from the west. Later on the Atlantic may start to wake up.
Confidence on developments through the second week is low.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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