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Issued Thursday 31st July 2014
Week 1A mixed week but in the south still warm and sunny for much of the time.
Unsettled conditions early in the period are expected to push across the whole of the country. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to be a risk, but there should also be drier spells with warm sunshine.
Initially the heaviest showers probably in central and northern regions, but on Saturday these could become more widespread across southern England.
By Sunday drier conditions could be returning to the south with heavy showers continuing in northern regions.
The second half of the week is expected to bring a north west to south east split across the UK. The south east again warm and sunny for a time. In the north west heavy showers or longer spells of rain are probable, but also drier and sunnier interludes.
By the end of the week heavy and thundery showers could spread back south eastwards.
Forecast confidence on the general pattern is high, but low on the details. With the potential for downpours keep an eye on the local forecasts and rainfall and lightning radar.
Week 2Mixed weather is expected throughout the week. All parts of the UK could see showery rain early in the period, but also drier and warmer spells.
Through the week a north west to south east split could develop. In the south east increasingly dry and warm conditions developing whilst the north west of the UK remains more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain.
Despite mixed weather being considered the favoured outcome for this week the possibility of fine and warm conditions developing more extensively is considered possible. Keep up to date with the site homepage for the latest prospects.
Forecast confidence is low through this period.
OverviewDuring the early part of the period low pressure sinking southwards will bring more unsettled conditions across all regions. The cooler Atlantic air probably struggling to push across the whole of the country, so temperatures in the south east remaining above average when cloud breaks.
The second half of the first week could see high pressure building back from the south west. Developments later on are uncertain with the warm and unstable air bringing the risk of heavy rain to parts of the UK for a time.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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