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Issued Thursday 28th August 2014
Week 1Changeable weather at first, but improving during the course of the week with summer returning.
Thursday: Cloudy in northern areas with outbreaks of showery rain. In the north west these could be heavier and more persistent at times. In the south and particularly the south east fewer showers are likely with many places remaining mostly dry. Windy, especially in the north west.
Saturday: A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers. Many places should have a dry day with the highest temperatures in the south east close to 22C (72F).
Sunday: A dry start in all regions. Through the course of the day cloud and rain will push south eastwards across northern parts of the UK. Becoming windy in the north west. Southern and possibly central regions remaining dry with sunny spells an here it will be quite warm.
Monday: Cloud and rain is expected to push south eastwards through the day, but becoming increasingly light and patchy. Clearer and drier conditions following on behind.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Increasingly dry and fine weather extending northwards over the UK through the period. Temperatures in southern and central regions into the mid 20sC, and possibly nudging towards 27C (81F) in a few locations. Less warm but also mostly dry in the northern half of the UK.
Forecast confidence is relatively high through the period.
During the early part of the week the mostly dry and fine spell is expected to continue. Temperatures should be above the seasonal average during the days, but perhaps becoming chilly and misty by night.
The middle and latter part of the week could see a transition to more changeable conditions with an increasing risk of showery rain. There is also a significant chance of it becoming cooler.
Forecast confidence is low through this period.
OverviewInitially during the first week low pressure over the northern part of the UK shall keep the changeable theme going. A change is expected to begin developing through the first weekend with high pressure building from the south.
High pressure is likely to control the weather over the UK during much of the middle part of the forecast period, and there is a reasonable chance of a late season Spanish plume sending very warm air northwards towards the UK.
Towards the end of the forecast period high pressure may pull back into the Atlantic allowing cooler and more changeable spells to return, but developments are uncertain.
Confidence on developments through the second week is very low.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysisThe GFS is the computer model which we base our 16 day weather forecasts on.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
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