14 day UK weather

Mild and changeable but possibly colder later 

UK outlook issued Thursday 8th December 2016

Week 1

Changeable but mild.

Friday: Outbreaks of rain in the north west of the UK push eastwards across much of the north. Wet weather probably also extends into Wales during the afternoon but other areas should stay dry and some bright spells develop. It will be unusually mild for December.

Saturday: Outbreaks of rain, which are likely to be heavy at times, affect southern counties for much of the day. Northern regions should be brighter but some showers are likely and it will be windy. Very mild in the south but in the north temperatures remain closer to the seasonal average.

Sunday: Showery rain may affect northern regions but elsewhere a mostly dry day with some sunny spells is forecast. Less mild than recently with temperatures close to the December average.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: The overall theme is for changeable weather. Outbreaks of rain are possible in all regions but the heaviest of these are likely to be in the north west. It will be windy at times in the north and west. Generally mild in the south but temperatures in the north will be closer to the seasonal norm.

Forecast confidence is high.

 

 

Week 2

Mixed and perhaps chillier later.

Changeable weather is expected. The highest risk of rain is in northern and western regions but some could push into eastern regions on occasion. However, in the east the emphasis is on drier conditions. Temperatures in the west probably stay above the seasonal average for much of the time but in the south east it could become colder. 

Forecast confidence is low.

Overview

During the first week pressure remains centred to the south and east of the UK. A south westerly flow brings disturbances in from the Atlantic across the west of the UK and at times these push south eastwards. By the end of the week there is a low chance of high pressure becoming established across Scandinavia and colder air pushing in from the east.

During the second week high pressure continues to have a good deal of influence on the weather. It currently looks set to remain centred to the south or east of the country but it may build across the UK. At this stage high latitude blocking is not expected to develop, although a few GEFS ensemble runs have shown it so the idea isn't fully discounted.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

Points of note

Mild and changeable weather is expected for much of the period. Western and northern areas have most of the rain and in the east it should often be dry. Towards the end of the forecast period it may turn colder, especially in the south east, but forecast confidence is low.

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