14 day UK: Unsettled and cooler

Issued Thursday 23rd April 2015

Week 1

Often settled with sunny spells.

Friday: Outbreaks of showery rain spread northeastwards during the day. Some areas perhaps seeing their first significant rainfall for a while. Still quite warm during sunny spells, especially in the east where temperatures could peak close to 21C (70F).

Saturday, Sunday: Unsettled conditions are expected with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all regions at times. Temperatures in southern and central regions remain reasonable on Saturday but in the north it will be turning colder. During Sunday the colder air gradually spreads southwards with showers turning wintry over northern hills.

Monday, Tuesday: Rather cold across all of the UK with the risk of showers or more persistent spells of rain but also drier and brighter periods, especially in the south. In areas where skies clear overnight temperatures will fall sharply bringing the risk frost of sharp frost for the time of year. 

Wednesday, Thursday:  The generally unsettled spell is likely to continue but showers may become more scattered in southern and western regions with an increasing chance of drier spells. Confidence through this period is low but there is a chance of it turning quite a lot milder, particularly in the southern half of the country.

Forecast confidence is high but falling to moderate during the second half of the week.

 

 

Week 2

Changeable through the week.

The early part of the week is forecast to be quite unsettled with the risk of showers and more persistent spells of rain in all regions. Southern counties should have the best of the drier interludes. Temperatures probably quite close to the seasonal average but cooler at times in the north.

The favoured outcome is for changeable weather to continue through the second half of the week with further showers or longer periods of rain in all regions. In the south drier and warmer spells may develop at times.

Forecast confidence is low.

Overview

During the early part of the forecast period a transition to a more mobile and unsettled pattern takes place. Through the weekend and early into next week much colder air pushes down from the north west.

The second half of the first week may bring a ridge of high pressure across the south with a flatter westerly pattern in northern regions allowing milder air to return. 

During the first half of the second week a broadly westerly flow is expected to continue. High pressure may have more influence on the weather in the south at times.

Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis

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