Met Office Hadley            9.1c.       Anomaly        1.3c.  Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                         8.84c.     Anomaly        0.83c.

Netweather                      9.41c.     Anomaly        1.32c.

Peasedown St John        10.4c.      Anomaly        1.7c.  

Pity about the colder end to the month. 

Met  Office   Hadley         9.1c.         Anomaly        1.3c.  Provisional  to  29th.

Metcheck                         8.89c.       Anomaly        0.87c.

Netweather                      9.45c.       Anomaly        1.36c.

Peasedown St John       10.4c.        Anomaly        1.7c.   

8.85c please 😀. Thanks GW!

Congratulations to Deep Powder

Final CET figure for April is 8.87C. This is just 0.2C above the March figure.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2017

Also well done to rickm and Hippydave who predicted 8.9C so were only 0.03C out but just pipped at the post for the best prediction this month.

I will try and catchup on the CET results in the near future. As a start the February results are coming shortly.

Apologies for the delay but I am starting to catchup now on the backlog of data for this year. Please find below the charts for February and also the CET competition table and list of predictions for February. Well done to roger63 who was head of the pack after the first two months.

Direct link to larger version of table CET competition table - February

Thanks GW for the charts. Always like to see how everybody else is doing.

Thanks GW. Nice to be number one even if its for a short time.

Apologies for the delay but I am now in a position to post the data for March. The figures for April and the May predictions will follow by this time next week at the latest.

Charts below (small size only due to site restrictions). Direct links also provided to full size charts.

March CET tracker

March CET anomalies

March daily CET

Here are the March CET predictions

March CET predictions 1

March CET predictions 2

Annual CET prediction competition - March update

No change at the top - roger63 still leads the way and now by some considerable distance.

Main mover this month was markwells who moved up 28 place to 12th.

Direct link to larger version of table 

CET competition table - March update

Thanks GW for the update.   Always interested whenever posted.. 

Here are the predictions for the April CET and the final charts for April. CET competition table update will be posted around this time tomorrow.

April CET predictions 1

April CET predictions 2

April CET tracker

April CET anomalies

Daily April CET

Thank you GW!   

I always look forward the seeing the tables at the month end and I'm pleasantly surprised to see my March position is so high. It will all change come the April table. 

Annual CET competition - April update

Here is the table for April. roger63 holds on to top spot but his lead has been significantly reduced. Plenty of big movers this month as many (including me) thought it would be very warm but that did not materialise.

April CET competition table

Well done Roger63 and Lanky: so accurate, except foxed by March. Glad to be in the top 20!

Thank you GW. 

I didn't fall as many places as I'd thought I would and I'm very pleasantly surprised. In all the years this competition has run, I think this is my longest stay in the top ten!  I just need May to end at 12.5c to hang on in there. 

Amazed at how well I'm holding up... I'm sure in absolute numerical terms I'm doing similar to or possibly worse than this time last year but getting a stronger position as it's so much more unpredictable this time. 

Amazed at how well I'm holding up... I'm sure in absolute numerical terms I'm doing similar to or possibly worse than this time last year but getting a stronger position as it's so much more unpredictable this time. 

Thanks for your great work on this Simon 

I just looked back at the April thread from last year and it confirmed my suspicion ! I was 14 places lower with a better cumulative error. The standard really was unbelievable last year

I just looked back at the April thread from last year and it confirmed my suspicion ! I was 14 places lower with a better cumulative error. The standard really was unbelievable last year

I think it is unlikely that the standard was much higher last year as the contestants this year are much the same people although as you say the accuracy (as opposed to "standard") was higher in 2016

IMO there are two other factors which govern the overall accuracy of the whole collection of estimates:

(1) The accuracy of the "official" Met Office forecast at the start of that month which we often use as a guide

(2) The deviation of that months CET from the long term average

I don't know about number (1) but this year Jan-Apr there have benn 2 months with a CET of more than 2C  outside the average whereas last year there were none. Us contestants generally cluster our estimates around the average especially if the month is tricky to call so months with big deviations tend to catch out a a lot of people